Sunflower Market Analysis: Drought Risks Tighten 2025 Outlook

The sunflower market faces a critical juncture in July 2025, shaped by tightening supplies, mounting weather woes, and stable-to-firm pricing trends. The latest data from key exchanges and physical offers evidence of both regional resilience and the looming risks of drought-induced yield losses, especially in southern producing areas. While the market has absorbed a wave of earlier supply, prospects for the 2025/26 season are increasingly clouded by adverse weather, with up to 6% of the crop at risk and production estimates revised downward from 20 million to potentially 15 million tonnes. Traders and industry participants navigate between steady spot prices and rising future contract values on AFEX, as they weigh local fundamentals against global developments, most notably, the role of Ukrainian and Bulgarian exports.

European cash prices remain steady, anchored by FCA Odesa offers at EUR 0.54/kg for black sunflower seeds and similar levels for Kyiv, with recent upticks in meal and kernel prices. However, physical market stability belies underlying price risks if weather conditions worsen further. With USDA and local agencies flagging inventory drawdowns and possible shortfalls, the coming weeks will be pivotal for price direction, speculative flows, and logistics.

📈 Prices

Contract	Prev. Close (ZAR/t)	Last Close (ZAR/t)	Change (ZAR)	% Change	Volume	Sentiment
Jul 25	9410	9484	+74	+0.78%	83	Neutral-to-Firm
Aug 25	9487	9487	0	0.00%	0	Neutral
Sep 25	9544	9602	+58	+0.60%	124	Firm
Dec 25	9718	9781	+63	+0.64%	204	Firm
Mar 26	9544	9544	0	0.00%	0	Neutral
May 26	9141	9141	0	0.00%	0	Neutral
Jul 26	9391	9391	0	0.00%	0	Neutral

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Change
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.54	0.00
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.55	0.00
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	UA	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.54	0.00
Sunflower kernels (meal)	UA	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	0.53	+0.01

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Drought Stress: Southern growing regions report significant water deficits—up to 6% crop loss possible, especially in Russia, Ukraine, and parts of the EU.
• Production Forecasts: Revised estimates call for a sunflower crop around 15 million tonnes, down from 20 million in 2024.
• Stock Drawdown: USDA and local analysts note lower opening stocks; end-user inventories are being cautiously managed.
• Export Dynamics: Ukraine remains a cornerstone for EU processing/bottling industries; price stability reflects both robust supply and logistical risks.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Data: Recent reports highlight lower global stocks—particularly in the Black Sea and EU region—on par with downward-revised production expectations.
• Market Positioning: Hedge funds and specs trim long positions, but open interest remains stable. Domestic crushers maintain active demand.
• Physical Offers: Ukrainian FCA/FOB offers are unchanged at EUR 0.54-0.55/kg; Bulgarian/MD prices slightly lower, CN offers well above EU/UA levels, reflecting trade frictions and freight premiums.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea: Persistent dryness and heat waves expected to linger over the next week; relief only patchy, especially in SW Russia and southern Ukraine.
• Central/Eastern Europe: Scattered rains are possible but unlikely to fully reverse soil moisture deficits.
• Yield Impact: If dry spell persists through late July, further production downgrades are imminent, with sunflower most exposed among oilseeds.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Output (Mt)	2025 Outlook (Mt)	Stock Change (y/y)
Ukraine	11.2	~8.5	Down
Russia	15.8	12.5-13.0	Down
EU	9.5	8.0	Down
Argentina	3.4	3.4	Steady

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain near-term long positions as weather threats persist; consider rolling out to December/March if dryness intensifies.
• Monitor export logistics—delays or disruptions from UA or the Black Sea can quickly firm prices, especially for prompt delivery windows.
• Spot/fixed price purchases remain attractive for processors, especially FCA Odesa and Kyiv lots at current levels.
• End-users should secure forward coverage (Q4 2025/Q1 2026) before further production downgrades materialise.
• Speculators: Look for trading opportunities in the spreads between EU/CN and EU/Black Sea origins.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price	3-Day Forecast Range	Direction
AFEX Jul 25	9484 ZAR/t	9450 – 9550 ZAR/t	Steady-to-Firm
FCA Odesa	0.54 EUR/kg	0.54 – 0.56 EUR/kg	Firm
FCA Kyiv	0.55 EUR/kg	0.55 – 0.57 EUR/kg	Firm

Key Watch: Weather in the Black Sea for final yield outcome, and any fresh logistical disruptions in UA/BG trade flows.