ICE Sugar Breaks Lower – October Closes at USD 465/t as Downtrend Deepens
ICE Sugar No.5 futures extended their slide into August, with the October 2025 contract down 0.60% to USD 465.00/t (EUR 426.66/t). The entire futures curve followed suit, with the Q1–Q2 2026 contracts losing up to 0.8%. While EU spot prices remain stable, pressure is mounting as the gap between financial and physical sugar markets continues to widen.
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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Futures Closing Summary (01.08.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | 465.00 | -0.60% | 426.66 |
| Dec 25 | 457.50 | -0.72% | 419.80 |
| Mar 26 | 461.50 | -0.80% | 423.46 |
| May 26 | 463.60 | -0.82% | 425.47 |
| Aug 26 | 464.30 | -0.73% | 426.12 |
| Dec 26 | 470.80 | -0.42% | 431.79 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.917 EUR – ECB reference 01.08.2025)
🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Prices Holding, but Buyers Cautious
📦 Despite continued futures weakness, EU spot and delivered prices are holding firm:
- 🇵🇱 KSC (Poland): Offers unchanged at €0.635/kg DDP, with selective flexibility for Q4.
- 🇩🇪 Südzucker & Nordzucker: Holding at €0.70/kg DDP.
- 📉 Buyers are increasingly reluctant to contract at elevated levels while ICE trends lower. No widespread discounting yet, but pressure is rising.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 01.08.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Austria | BILLA | 1.49 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
🌍 Market Drivers
- 📉 Technical follow-through from July’s weakness – October lost ~USD 12 over 6 sessions
- 🇧🇷 Brazil’s Centre-South harvest remains uninterrupted – crushing conditions are optimal
- 🇮🇳 No official export policy update; rising local prices dampen trader interest
- 🛢️ Oil prices muted – no ethanol-linked support
- 🧊 EU demand sluggish – refiners report reduced inquiries despite unchanged offers
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Brazil: Dry and productive, but the risk of crop stress increases if August rains don’t materialise
- India: Monsoon coverage normalised; cane crop expectations stable
- Thailand: Conditions remain favourable
- EU: Heat in southern Europe continues, but no impact on refining operations
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Oct) | 0.427 | Multi-week low – discount to spot widens |
| EU Spot FCA (PL) | 0.54–0.56 | Unchanged – no physical price reaction |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Stable – promotional activity continues |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Extremely competitive – price anchor |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 ICE Sugar continues to slide as sellers dominate sentiment
📦 Physical prices remain high – refiners still holding line
⚠️ Disconnect between paper and physical markets is unsustainable long term
📌 Recommendations:
- Buyers:
→ Evaluate timing: if ICE approaches USD 460, spot discounts may emerge
→ Focus on Q4 contracts with flexibility around delivery terms - Sellers:
→ Hold firm but stay alert – pricing resistance may break if futures fall further
→ Hedge Q1–Q2 2026 cautiously if Oct drops below USD 465 - Traders:
→ Key support at USD 462 – breakdown could trigger retest of 450–455
→ Volume thinning – volatility spike possible on any macro shock
📍 Summary:
Futures markets are pressing lower, but the EU physical market remains in a holding pattern. While refiners continue to resist price adjustments, falling ICE prices are putting increasing pressure on forward negotiations. If no weather or policy event shifts sentiment, a deeper correction may be imminent.