Sunflower Market in Focus: Stable Prices Amid Volatile Fundamentals

The sunflower market is navigating a period of relative price stability, even as fundamentals remain in flux due to regional weather risks and shifting global demand dynamics. SAFEX sunflower contracts are seeing modest week-on-week gains—led by the August 2025 contract at ZAR 9,875/t (+0.67%) and December 2025 at ZAR 10,137/t (+0.66%). Meanwhile, physical markets across Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Moldova report steady prices for sunflower seeds (FCA/FOB: €0.53–€0.57/kg), as buyers weigh ample old-crop supplies against uncertainty on the coming harvest.

In processed products, Ukrainian sunflower kernels (bakery grade) saw a 3% week-on-week rise to €0.97/kg FCA Dnipro, and premiums persist on origin-differentiated kernels into the EU. However, sentiment in the physical and futures markets remains balanced by strong supply from Black Sea exporters and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Looking ahead, traders are laser-focused on the next 30 days of weather in Ukraine, Russia, and the Balkans—with dry, hot spells threatening oil yields in some areas. Fundamentals remain tight in the global vegetable oil market given soy and canola outlooks, but for now, sunflower supply chains show resilience. Volatility potential is elevated heading into main European harvests, making this a crucial watch period.

📈 Sunflower Prices at a Glance

Market	Contract / Product	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX	Aug 25	ZAR 9,875/T	+0.67%	Cautiously Bullish
SAFEX	Dec 25	ZAR 10,137/T	+0.66%	Steady
UA FCA Kyiv/Odesa	Black Seeds 98%	€0.57/kg	0%	Neutral
UA FOB Odesa	Black Seeds 98%	€0.54/kg	0%	Neutral
MD FCA DE	Black Seeds 98%	€0.53/kg	+8.2%	Firm
BG FOB Sofia	Black Seeds 98%	€0.54/kg	+3.8%	Steady
UA FCA Dnipro	Kernels, Bakery	€0.97/kg	+3.2%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine/South Russia: Strong export pace YTD but risk for 2025 yields as July was drier than average in key oblasts.
• EU & Balkans: Crop outlook broadly favorable, but recent heatwaves in Romania/Bulgaria may trim top-end yields.
• Global Demand: Weak vegetable oil demand in some importing regions (notably North Africa and Asia) suppresses upside, while India and Turkey remain active spot buyers.
• Speculative Interest: Managed money positions stable, with slight long bias in Black Sea physicals.
• USDA/IGO Reports: USDA slightly raised global stocks in its latest update; EU oilseed processors cautious on forward purchases.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Country	2025 Forecast Production (MMT)	Carryover Stocks (MMT)	Export Share
Ukraine	14.1	2.4	50%
Russia	17.2	3.1	40%
EU (total)	10.3	1.1	5%
Argentina	3.7	0.6	2%

🌦️ Weather Watch & Crop Outlook

• Black Sea: Rainfall over the past two weeks has been patchy. Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia face moderate drought, raising yield risks if dry pattern persists.
• EU Balkans: Romania and Bulgaria have experienced several heat spikes but good soil moisture carryover supports underlying yield averages.
• Forecast (Next 10 days): Predominantly warm and dry across Ukraine, with scattered thunderstorms possible in central oblasts. Market is highly sensitive to any prepollination heat stress signs.

🚢 Global Trade & Destinations

• Ukraine maintains strong shipment flows via Danube corridor; limited Black Sea shipping via main ports.
• Russia’s export pace steady but ruble depreciation could provoke more aggressive selling late in season.
• EU processors eye domestic and Balkan supply but imports from both Black Sea powers remain vital.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Hold portions of old crop into September for potential weather-driven rallies; hedge new crop sales in tranches.
• Buyers: Consider stepping into spot/Oct contracts on weather rally risk but avoid chasing short-term highs.
• Exporters: Lock in forward positions with flexible execution windows; monitor freight volatility.
• Speculators: Favor long positions only on clear evidence of yield downgrades in Black Sea.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast Range	Direction
SAFEX Aug 25	ZAR 9,875/t	ZAR 9,800 – 10,000	Stable/Firm
UA FCA Kyiv	€0.57/kg	€0.56 – 0.59	Stable
BG FCA Sofia	€0.54/kg	€0.53 – 0.56	Slightly Up
MD FCA DE	€0.53/kg	€0.52 – 0.54	Stable