Nicaragua Peanut Market – Lower Acreage and Production, Stable Export Base
Nicaragua’s peanut acreage is forecast to shrink by 5% in MY 2025/26 due to Brazilian oversupply and falling prices.
Despite reduced output, exports of shelled peanuts are expected to stay above 70,000 MT annually, maintaining Nicaragua’s role as a stable regional supplier.
📊 Market Overview – MY 2025/26 Forecast (FCA)
| Indicator | 2024/25 (Est.) | 2025/26 (Forecast) | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area Harvested | 44,000 ha | 42,000 ha | -5% | Farmers exit marginal lands |
| Production (in-shell) | 196,000 MT | 186,000 MT | -5% | Prices at $0.25/lb near cost |
| Exports (shelled) | 151,000 MT | 152,000 MT | flat | EU, Mexico, Central America |
| Domestic Use | 45,000 MT | 34,000 MT | -24% | Crushing down sharply |
| Crush (oil stock) | 30,000 MT | 20,000 MT | -33% | Improved grain quality |
| Peanut Oil Production | 10,000 MT | 7,000 MT | -30% | Almost fully exported |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Price Pressure: Brazilian record crop + Argentine supply drove peanut prices down 12% YoY, to $0.25/lb, barely covering costs of ~$1,600/ha.
- Area Reduction: Farmers abandon marginal soils; focus shifts to high-yield plots in León & Chinandega (90% of production).
- Weather: El Niño drought in 2023/24 cut yields to 3.8 MT/ha; La Niña in 2024/25 lifted yields to 4.4 MT/ha with good rains.
- Consumption: 34,000 MT forecast; only ~5,000 MT consumed domestically as snacks, ~20,000 MT crushed for oil.
- Exports: Remain Nicaragua’s anchor: >90% of runner-type peanuts go abroad, mainly to EU (NL, UK, Germany), Mexico, Central America.
- Peanut Oil Trade: ~7,000 MT crude oil exported; EU takes 60%, China 30%, U.S. 10%.
🔮 Outlook – MY 2025/26
- Production: Down to 186,000 MT, but yields remain competitive (4.4 MT/ha).
- Exports: Stable above 150,000 MT shelled peanuts; EU share rising.
- Domestic Use: Shrinks due to reduced crushing; higher-quality grain reduces oil-stock availability.
- Oil Sector: Peanut oil output falls 30% to 7,000 MT; exports continue as crude oil.
💬 Commentary
Nicaragua’s peanut sector faces profitability pressure from global oversupply, but remains resilient. Farmers are adjusting by intensifying cultivation in fertile zones, avoiding marginal land.
The country is highly export-oriented, with Europe absorbing over 40% of shelled exports. The oil sector is secondary, with most oil shipped abroad rather than used domestically.
Looking ahead, Nicaragua is expected to sustain its position as a reliable, mid-scale origin in global peanut trade, though profitability is fragile if Brazil continues to flood the market.
📈 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Importers (EU/Mexico): Dependable supply of runner-type peanuts, but monitor quality variability under weather stress.
- Exporters (Nicaragua): Focus on EU markets; maintain high quality to protect price premiums.
- Oil Traders: Expect reduced oil-stock volumes; crude oil exports to remain EU/China/U.S. focused.
- Risk Factors: Price competition from Brazil/Argentina, credit availability for Nicaraguan farmers, climate variability (El Niño/La Niña).
Source: USDA