Ukraine Oilseeds Market Update – August 2025

Ukraine’s oilseed sector is facing a sharp contraction in soybean and rapeseed output, while sunflower remains stable. New 10% export duties on soybeans and rapeseed will likely shift more crops toward domestic crushing, impacting trade flows in MY2025/26.

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🌱 1. Planted Area (MY2025/26 vs. MY2024/25)

• Soybeans: 2.1 MHa (–24%) → area reduced by 500k ha, reallocated mainly to corn.
• Rapeseed: 1.3 MHa (–3%).
• Sunflower: 6.0 MHa (Post estimate, higher than official 5.1 MHa, due to underreporting).

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🌾 2. Production Forecasts (MY2025/26)

• Soybeans: 4.9 MMT (–31% YoY).
• Rapeseed: 3.2 MMT (–14% YoY).
• Sunflower seed: 12.7 MMT, flat YoY.
• NDVI (NASA/USDA) shows 2025 vegetation development tracking similar to 2024 (chart on page 3).

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🏭 3. Crush & Processing

• Soybean crush: 2.5 MMT (vs. 3.0 MMT in 2024/25).
• Rapeseed crush: 650k MT (up from 530k MT).
• Sunflower crush: 12.4 MMT (slightly down from 12.8 MMT).
• Industry supports export duties, aiming to redirect raw seed into local crushing.

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📦 4. Trade (MY2025/26)

Seeds:

• Soybean exports: 2.1 MMT (vs. 4.1 MMT in 2024/25).
• Rapeseed exports: 2.55 MMT (vs. 3.14 MMT).
• Sunflower seed exports: 0.3 MMT (slight increase from 75k MT in 2024/25).

Oils:

• Sunflower oil exports: 4.9 MMT (vs. 5.0 MMT).
• Soybean oil exports: 450k MT (vs. 550k MT).
• Rapeseed oil exports: 260k MT (vs. 217k MT).

Meals:

• Sunflower meal exports: 3.36 MMT (vs. 4.0 MMT).
• Soybean meal exports: 1.86 MMT (vs. 2.1 MMT).
• Rapeseed meal exports: 235k MT (vs. 220k MT).

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⚖️ 5. Policy Update

• 10% export duty on soybeans & rapeseed approved by parliament (July 2025), pending signature.
• Farmers & coops exempt; large international traders bear the tax.
• No duty on oils or meals → incentive for crushing industry.

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📊 6. Market Outlook

• Soybeans: sharp drop in area and exports; domestic crushers benefit.
• Rapeseed: lower crop but more crushing supported by duty.
• Sunflower: remains Ukraine’s most stable and strategic oilseed.
• Trade flows: more value-added products (oils, meals) expected, fewer raw seed exports.

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✅ Conclusion:
Ukraine’s oilseed sector is undergoing structural adjustment. Export duties will reduce raw seed exports of soybeans and rapeseed, boosting local crushing and shifting export profiles toward oil and meal. Sunflower remains the backbone of production and exports.

Source: USDA