Turkish Hazelnut Market Report – September 14, 2025

The Turkish hazelnut market is under extreme upward pressure. Farmers are holding back supply, pushing raw kernel prices from 280 TRY/kg to 315 TRY/kg within one week. Limited availability, weak quality, and high shares of small kernels are driving a highly speculative environment. Exporters are struggling with contract performance, while buyers remain uncertain about price sustainability.

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📊 1. Current Price Levels (DDP Central Europe, full truckloads)

• Raw kernels 11–13 mm (conventional): €15.72/kg
• Raw kernels 11–13 mm (organic): €13.78/kg
• Roasted kernels: €17.64/kg
• Small calibers (2–4 mm, 0–2 mm): €13.46–12.22/kg
• Hazelnut paste: €10.86/kg

Weekly performance:

• +15.3% vs. last week
• +33.5% vs. last quarter
• +46.5% vs. half year
• +51.6% vs. last year

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🌾 2. Supply & Quality Situation

• Farmers are withholding stocks, accelerating the price spiral.
• Quality concerns: smaller kernels, low yield ratio (Randuman 41–42% vs. 50% norm) .
• Exporters try to profit from old stocks but face big losses on pre-harvest contracts.
• Widespread fear that contract defaults or renegotiations may rise this season.
• Buyers covered through Q4, but new purchases needed soon → risk of forced buying at high prices.

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💱 3. Currency & Macro Factors

• Turkish central bank cut interest rate from 43.0% to 40.5%, despite >30% inflation.
• The lira stayed stable last week, but long-term risks of depreciation remain due to political instability.

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📈 4. Bullish Market Drivers (p.3)

• Below-average harvest volume and quality.
• Market leader’s purchase strategy unclear, likely supporting high levels.
• State agency TMO set a high base price, favoring alternative origins.
• Rising production costs (wages, energy, sorting).
• Other origins (Italy, Azerbaijan, Georgia) also face lower volumes.
• Risk of delays, defaults, renegotiations on contracts.

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📉 5. Bearish Market Factors (p.3)

• High prices + high cocoa prices = demand destruction (exports could fall by ≥20%).
• Early chocolate industry data already show weaker sales.
• Strong competition among exporters.
• Large volumes of small kernels and rejects may come to market, pressuring processed products.
• Speculative holding of stocks less attractive with high financing costs.

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📊 6. Charts & Export Trends (p.4)

• Chart 1: Domestic cracker prices in Turkey soared beyond 315 TRY/kg, breaking long-term averages.
• Chart 2: Raw hazelnut kernel prices (DDP Europe) surged above €15/kg, well above 5-year average.
• Chart 3: Export figures indicate sharp increases in value per MT, though volumes may fall.
• Hazelnut timeline: Harvest in September, drying & calibration until Oct, exports peak Oct–Mar.

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✅ Conclusion

• Short-term outlook: Prices likely to stay firm for high-quality kernels (11–13 mm+).
• Medium-term: Potential correction for small calibers and processed products if demand falters.
• Risks: Contract defaults, further lira depreciation, fragile Turkish macroeconomy.
• Buyers: should prepare for sustained high prices in Q4 2025, especially for top-quality raw kernels, while exploring flexibility with smaller calibers (10–12 mm).