Sunflower Market Update: Abundant Supply Meets Cautious Demand, Pressuring Prices

In recent weeks, the sunflower market has witnessed a dynamic interplay of supply-side expansion and tepid demand, especially in key producing and trading regions. Heavy inflows of new-season sunflower seeds from China’s Gansu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia have resulted in a broadly ample supply scenario, with most processors and exporters purchasing only as needed amidst persistent caution on high-priced procurement. Internationally, both seed and kernel prices show signs of mild softening or stability, reflecting the current glut and lackluster buyer enthusiasm. Market participants are adjusting their strategies, focusing on new crop volumes while old-crop inventories are increasingly discounted based on quality. As trading activity intensifies with the peak harvest, all eyes are on export flows from major origins like Ukraine and Bulgaria, global feed demand, and evolving weather patterns across the main Northern Hemisphere growing belts.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Products at Key Markets

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	0.55	+0.01	Steady to firm
Sunflower kernels, meal	Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	0.53	0.00	Stable
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Moldova	Germany, Rheinfelden Herten (FCA)	0.50	0.00	Stable
Sunflower seeds, striped, 98%	Bulgaria	Sofia (FOB)	0.52	0.00	Balanced
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Bulgaria	Sofia (FCA)	0.46	-0.04	Weak
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery	Ukraine	Dnipro (FCA)	0.95	0.00	Stable
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery	Moldova	Germany, Rheinfelden Herten (FCA)	0.96	-0.04	Softening
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	China	Beijing (FOB)	1.59	0.00	Stable/high premium
Sunflower kernels, hulled, confection	Bulgaria	Sofia (FCA)	1.22	-0.02	Softening
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery	Bulgaria	Berlin (FCA)	1.15	-0.01	Softening
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery	China	Beijing (FOB)	1.03	+0.01	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• China: Ample new crop supply from Gansu and Xinjiang with Inner Mongolia also increasing availability. Current trading focus is shifting to new-season seeds. Old-crop inventories are now priced according to quality. Export and processor buying remains restrained, with trades primarily for immediate requirements.
• Europe/Ukraine: Harvest is progressing steadily in Ukraine and Bulgaria, sustaining healthy export volumes. Ukrainian FOB and FCA prices exhibit resilience, mirroring strong supply but cautious forward demand.
• Demand: Consumption in both food and oil pressing markets is steady but notably below the highs of previous years. Snack, bakery, and kernel-focused buyers show only moderate urgency, pressured by broad availability.
• Export flows: Export volumes from Black Sea region remain robust but face downward price pressure due to elevated stocks and slow buying in EU and MENA destinations.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Supply shock: Record harvests in China’s main regions, plus surplus from Ukraine, weigh on prices.
• Demand trends: Retail, food, and snack market demand remain cautious. Exporters and crushers buy “as needed”, putting a cap on bullish sentiment.
• Stock levels: High old-crop stocks in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are being cleared, largely at discounted prices.
• Speculative positions: Traders remain risk-averse, holding minimal speculative positions amid abundant inventory.
• Recent report comparison: Compared to the last market analysis, the supply scenario has further loosened while demand signals have grown even more restrained, increasing likelihood of additional price erosion for lower quality or old-crop material.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Impact

• China: Major growing regions (Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia) have recently experienced favorable harvest weather, ensuring rapid progress and maintaining high volume output. No significant weather threats are reported in the near term.
• Ukraine & Bulgaria: Post-harvest weather is seasonally normal, supporting field operations, drying, and logistics. 7-day forecasts suggest mild, dry conditions, aiding completion.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Production Estimate (MT)	2024 Ending Stocks (MT)	Comment
Ukraine	~15.5m	3.7m	Export-oriented, adjusted by war logistics
Russia	~16.0m	4.1m	Largest producer/exporter globally
EU (Bulgaria, Romania)	~10.2m	1.7m	Steady yield, high stocks
China	~2.8m	0.9m	Regional surpluses, especially in NW provinces
Turkey	~1.7m	0.4m	Firm domestic crush demand

⏩ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect mild further price weakening for old-crop and lower quality seeds, especially in regions with ongoing surplus (Inner Mongolia, Northwest China).
• New crop prices may stabilize as peak supply passes and processors begin to accumulate for winter.
• Exporters: Prioritize flexible pricing to stimulate short-term demand, particularly for bakery kernels and confection grades.
• Buyers: Continue to monitor for discounts on old-crop and actively secure premium lots as market nears the seasonal bottom.
• Speculators: Minimal positions recommended until clearer demand signals; market likely to remain range-bound near term.

📆 Regional 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Product	Spot Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Odesa, Ukraine (FOB)	Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	0.55	0.54–0.55
Rheinfelden, Germany (FCA)	Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	0.50	0.49–0.50
Beijing, China (FOB)	Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	1.59	1.58–1.60