Argentina Oilseeds Outlook 2025/26: Strong Crush Margins

Argentina Oilseeds Outlook 2025/26: Strong Crush Margins, Record Sunflower Processing and Tight Soybean Balances

CMB News – Oilseeds | January 2026

Argentina’s oilseeds sector enters the 2025/26 marketing year with diverging dynamics across soybeans, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. While soybean production is forecast below last season due to area shifts, crushing activity remains exceptionally strong, supported by robust margins, permanent export tax reductions, and sustained global demand for meals and oils. At the same time, sunflowerseed is emerging as a renewed growth story, with record crush capacity and near-record production, while peanut output contracts following last year’s exceptional crop.

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Soybeans: Lower Production, Strong Margins, Tight Domestic Balance

Production and Crop Conditions

• MY 2025/26 soybean production is forecast at 47.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from 50.5 MMT in MY 2024/25.
• As of early January, 82% of the soybean area was planted, around 12 percentage points behind last year, mainly due to excessive rainfall.
• Yield prospects remain favorable, with producers in core regions reporting potential yields up to 4.0 t/ha, assuming weather conditions remain supportive.

Producers continue to favor corn in parts of the rotation, limiting soybean area expansion despite improved moisture conditions. Export tax reductions on soybeans—lowered by 2 percentage points to 24%—are considered insufficient to trigger a meaningful increase in planted area.

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Crush and Processing: Structural Strength Continues

Despite lower production, soybean crush remains the backbone of Argentina’s oilseed complex:

• Soybean crush MY 2024/25: 43.0 MMT (revised up by 1.0 MMT)
• Soybean crush MY 2025/26: 43.0 MMT, matching the prior year
• Strong crush margins are supported by firm soymeal prices and stable soybean oil demand.

Crush utilization remains high even as whole soybean exports tighten domestic availability. Imported soybeans—primarily from Paraguay—continue to play a strategic role, accounting for 13.2% of total crush between April and November, under Argentina’s temporary import-for-reexport regime.

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Trade and Policy: Permanent Export Tax Cuts Reshape Incentives

In December 2025, the Argentine government announced a permanent reduction in export taxes:

• Soybeans: reduced to 24%
• Soymeal and soy oil: reduced to 22.5%

This policy shift provides greater certainty for exporters and processors and encourages near-term sales.

• MY 2024/25 soybean exports are estimated at 12.2 MMT, nearly triple the previous year, driven by strong Chinese demand.
• Exports reached a record 2.19 MMT in November alone, with 11.47 MMT shipped year to date.
• Aggressive exports and high crush rates are expected to result in very tight ending stocks, limiting carryover into MY 2025/26.

Looking ahead, MY 2025/26 soybean exports are expected to normalize, remaining highly sensitive to U.S.–China trade relations rather than domestic supply alone.

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Soymeal and Soy Oil: Exports Supported Despite Tight Supply

Soymeal

• MY 2024/25 soymeal exports are revised upward, supported by strong global protein demand.
• Argentina has also imported a record volume of soymeal (510,000 MT forecast) to satisfy domestic feed demand, as locally produced meal is preferentially exported.
• Asia remains a key growth market, reinforcing Argentina’s role as a leading global soymeal supplier.

Soybean Oil

• Oil production and exports remain stable, with demand supported by both food use and energy markets.
• Lower export taxes and firm international prices continue to underpin processor margins.

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Sunflowerseed: The Standout Growth Story

Sunflowerseed is the clear outperformer in Argentina’s oilseed outlook:

• Planted area MY 2025/26: 2.7 million hectares, well above USDA official estimates
• Production MY 2025/26: forecast near 5.3 MMT, close to record levels
• Crush MY 2025/26: projected at 5.0 MMT, an all-time high

Key drivers include:

• Improved weather in northern regions
• Strong domestic and export demand for sunflower oil
• Significant new investments in crush capacity, including an additional 500,000 MT per year at San Lorenzo

Sunflower oil prices in Rosario reached approximately USD 500/ton in December, reinforcing sunflower’s improved competitiveness versus other oilseeds. Exports of sunflower oil, meal, and seed are expected to remain at multi-decade highs.

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Peanuts: Production Contracts After Record Year

• MY 2025/26 peanut planted area falls sharply to 400,000 hectares, down from 532,000 hectares in MY 2024/25
• Production declines to 1.44 MMT, reflecting lower acreage despite improved yields
• MY 2024/25 peanut exports are revised up to 1.10 MMT, supported by strong shipments to the EU and Australia

The contraction reflects weaker price expectations and market saturation following last year’s record crop, prompting many first-time growers to exit peanut production.

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CMB Outlook

Argentina’s oilseed sector remains highly competitive downstream, even as soybean production eases. Crushing, not farming, is the key value driver, supported by permanent tax reforms, strong global demand, and world-class processing infrastructure.

Sunflowerseed stands out as the fastest-growing segment, while soybeans face tighter balances and greater sensitivity to global trade politics. Overall, Argentina is reinforcing its role as a global hub for oilseed processing and exports, rather than a simple supplier of raw beans.

CMB News – Oilseeds Intelligence, January 2026

Source: USDA