Ajwain prices flat in Delhi as delayed monsoon keeps buying cautious

Ajwain export offers from Delhi are holding broadly steady in mid-June, with both seed and powder grades unchanged week-on-week in EUR terms. A delayed and uneven monsoon onset over western and north-western India is adding weather risk, but weak overall spice export demand is preventing any substantial upside for now. Ajwain trade in India is currently driven more by overall spice market sentiment and monsoon expectations than by immediate supply tightness. Key producing states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan are still waiting for a proper monsoon onset, with temperatures above 40°C in parts of Gujarat and only isolated pre-monsoon showers forecast in the coming week, implying limited near-term crop stress but rising concern if rains delay further.

Prices & short-term trend

New Delhi FOB offers for organic ajwain seed (A grade) and powder (B grade) are effectively unchanged over the last three weeks, indicating a broadly balanced spot market. Converting recent quotes to EUR using an indicative rate places current levels near the upper end of the past month’s range but without fresh upward momentum. This flat pattern is consistent with more general spice export weakness, as India’s overall spice exports fell 6% in FY26 on softer overseas demand, particularly in chilli and cumin, which often set sentiment for smaller spices such as ajwain.

Supply, demand & weather drivers (India)

Ajwain production is concentrated in Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh. The broader spice complex is facing weaker export demand: India’s spice exports in FY26 declined to about USD 4.43 billion, mainly due to lower shipments of chilli and cumin, which reduces immediate buying urgency across secondary spices.

On the supply side, the 2026 southwest monsoon has been delayed and is progressing unevenly. Nationally, IMD now expects seasonal rainfall around 90% of the long-period average, with below-normal June rainfall over much of the country and more heatwave days in key north-western states including Gujarat. This pattern is visible on the ground: Ahmedabad in Gujarat recorded about 42.7°C on 13 June with the monsoon yet to arrive, and forecasters only see isolated pre-monsoon showers over Saurashtra, Gujarat and Kutch between 13–20 June with temperatures still near 38.5–41°C.

For ajwain, these hot and dry conditions are not immediately damaging because the main harvest has already passed, but they constrain planting and moisture build-up for the next cycle. Local commentary from Gujarat highlights very low soil moisture and unusual heat in early June, which, if prolonged into July, could tighten forward supply expectations and lend medium-term support to prices. For now, however, the combination of comfortable domestic availability and softer export demand is keeping spot ajwain offers in Delhi in a narrow range.

Fundamentals & market sentiment

• Exports & demand: The 6% year-on-year decline in India’s spice export value in FY26 signals broad-based demand softness, especially from key destinations for chilli and cumin. Ajwain, being a smaller-volume spice, tends to follow this sentiment, limiting aggressive buying.
• Weather risk premium: IMD’s revised guidance of only 90% of normal monsoon rainfall and an above-normal frequency of heatwave days in Gujarat and neighbouring states is slowly introducing weather risk into forward pricing, but this has not yet translated into visible spot gains in Delhi.
• Competing spices: Weekly international spice market commentary highlights volatility and uncertainty in cumin and other major spices, with price lists covering over 70 products including minor seeds. This background volatility encourages cautious stocking in ajwain rather than aggressive accumulation.

Weather outlook (relevant ajwain regions)

In the next 3–5 days, models and field reports show the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon still stalled, with the core rains yet to reach Gujarat and Rajasthan. Forecasts point to scattered pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Saurashtra, Gujarat and Kutch from 13–20 June, trimming maximum temperatures but not yet delivering widespread monsoon rains. Monsoon progression is stronger over eastern and central India, but this has limited direct impact on ajwain for now.

Trading outlook & 3-day price view (EUR)

• Near-term bias (0–3 days): With flat offers and no immediate supply shock, New Delhi FOB ajwain seed and powder prices are expected to remain in a tight range around current EUR levels, with a slight downside risk if buyers step back further in response to weak export demand.
• Weather watch (2–4 weeks): Monitor IMD updates for monsoon advance over Gujarat and Rajasthan; a continued delay into late June/early July could trigger a modest weather risk premium in ajwain and related small-seed spices.
• Buyer strategy: Importers with nearby coverage can continue hand-to-mouth buying, but longer-term users may consider securing a partial Q3 position while prices remain stable and before any weather-driven sentiment shift.
• Seller strategy: Indian exporters may need to remain flexible on premiums in the short term, but should avoid heavy discounting given the emerging monsoon and acreage risks.

Overall, the ajwain market in India remains in a sideways phase, with prices in Delhi anchored by soft export demand and adequate nearby availability. The key upside risk for Q3 lies in a continued weak monsoon over Gujarat and Rajasthan; until that risk materialises more clearly, short-term price moves are likely to stay limited.