Almond Kernels Hold Firm as Weather Risks Build in US and Spain

Almond kernel prices in Spain and the US are broadly stable in early April, with only marginal week‑on‑week movement while weather and cost risks slowly accumulate. Tightness is not yet evident, but growers’ margins are pressured by rising input and pollination costs and lingering concerns over water availability in California.

Global almond supply for 2025/26 is expected to be close to last season’s level, keeping the market balanced and limiting strong price moves for now. Spain remains an important exporter of kernels, while California continues to dominate global trade. Recent reports highlight higher pollination costs and structurally stressed water resources in California, and a low April snowpack adds medium‑term irrigation risk. In the very short term, however, settled early‑April weather in California and seasonally normal conditions in Spain argue for sideways price action over the coming days.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are indicative, converted approximately to EUR/kg using recent EUR/USD levels and rounded for clarity.

Origin	Type	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change
US	Carmel SSR 18/20	FAS Washington D.C.	≈ €6.15	Flat vs 26 Mar
US	Carmel SSR 20/22	FAS Washington D.C.	≈ €6.10	Flat vs 26 Mar
US (organic)	Nonpareil 27/30, natural	FOB Washington D.C.	≈ €8.55	Flat vs 26 Mar
Spain	Marcona 12/14	FOB Madrid	≈ €6.60	Flat vs 26 Mar
Spain	Valencia 12/14	FOB Madrid	≈ €5.55	Flat vs 26 Mar
Spain (organic)	Nonpareil 27/30, natural	FOB Madrid	≈ €11.45	Flat vs 26 Mar

Indicative differentials show Spanish Marcona and Guara maintaining a premium over Californian Carmel for specialty and Mediterranean demand, while Spanish Valencia types trade at a discount, competing directly with US standard grades. Organic almonds preserve a sizeable premium in both origins.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

According to the latest International Nut and Dried Fruit Council assessment, the 2025/26 global almond crop is projected roughly in line with the previous season, pointing to a broadly balanced fundamental picture rather than a surplus or deficit scenario. Spain has remained a significant exporter, shipping around 80,000 t (kernel basis plus processed products) between August 2025 and January 2026, underlining its importance as a complementary origin to California in global trade.

In California, almonds remain the dominant nut crop with over a million acres planted and a structural reliance on irrigation infrastructure. The USDA and related industry tools continue to track acreage and yield, with the key determinant for the 2026 harvest being bloom success and subsequent nut set, rather than area changes in the near term. Demand in core markets (EU, Middle East, Asia) appears steady, with no very recent news indicating abrupt shifts in consumption or trade policy.

☀️ Weather & Crop Conditions (ES, US)

United States (California)

Weather during the 2026 bloom period has been mixed. Earlier in the season, Central Valley growers reported episodes of rain and cool temperatures, which can reduce bee flight and threaten pollination efficiency, though conditions later improved. Concurrently, a new analysis reported one of the lowest April snowpack readings in California history, highlighting ongoing concerns over future water availability for irrigated crops such as almonds.

For early April (4–6 April 2026), regional forecasts call for building high pressure over most of California, implying drier, more settled conditions and generally favorable weather for orchard operations in the short term. Rising pollination costs reported in early April further pressure grower margins but do not immediately constrain supply.

Spain

Recent pan‑European weather news has focused more on Atlantic windstorms and coastal events than on specific disruptions in Spanish inland almond regions. As of early April, there are no fresh indications of severe frost or prolonged heavy rain in key Spanish almond areas that would materially change the short‑term supply outlook. Seasonal conditions are therefore assumed to be near normal, with the main 2026 crop risk still lying ahead in the coming months.

📊 Fundamentals & Cost Environment

The latest global outlook suggests that total almond availability in 2025/26 will broadly match last season’s levels, limiting the scope for either a sharp rally or a steep price correction in the absence of a major weather shock. In Spain, INC data point to modest growth in bearing area and production, reinforcing its role as a stable Mediterranean origin.

Cost‑side pressures are building, especially in California. A new report on pollination highlights rising bee‑rental prices for almond orchards, increasing per‑acre costs during bloom. Combined with structurally stressed water resources and very low expected April snowpack, producers may require firmer prices over the medium term to sustain acreage, even if short‑term selling remains driven by cash‑flow needs and export demand.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (Next 3 Days)

Given stable quoted levels in both Spain and the US, balanced global supply expectations, and mostly favorable short‑term weather, spot and nearby almond kernel prices are expected to move sideways over the coming three days:

• US (California, kernels ex‑port position): Stable in EUR terms; minor intra‑day moves possible on FX and freight, but no clear directional driver.
• Spain (FOB Mediterranean types): Stable to slightly firm, especially for Marcona and Guara, supported by consistent export interest and specialty demand.
• Organic kernels (US & ES): Premiums likely to hold; limited liquidity but no sign of discounting pressure in the immediate term.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers (roasters, confectionery, importers): With prices stable and near recent ranges, consider covering short‑term needs now while monitoring California’s water outlook; optionality on Q3–Q4 volumes remains valuable given snowpack‑related risks.
• Spanish processors/merchants: Maintain current offer levels on Marcona and Guara; premiums to US product are justified by quality and steady export demand, but aggressive hikes are not warranted without new weather shocks.
• California growers/shippers: Given rising pollination and potential water costs, avoid excessive forward sales at current flat levels; a more constructive price environment may emerge if summer irrigation concerns intensify.

Directional bias for both Spanish and US almond kernels over the next three trading days is neutral, with a modest upside skew if any fresh news tilts market sentiment toward water or yield risk.