Almond Kernels Hold Firm as Weather Risks Loom in Spain and California

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are broadly stable in early April 2026, with no fresh upward impulse despite strong California export shipments and firmer Spanish spot indicators. Weather risks in both producing regions bear watching but are not yet triggering a clear risk premium. The market is consolidating after the Q1 recovery in almonds. Recent data from major traders show February California shipments up double‑digits year‑on‑year, led by exports, while US domestic demand remains soft. Spanish shelled almond imports surged in 2025, confirming solid underlying demand into the EU. Local Spanish price benchmarks for Marcona and Guara have edged higher through late March, supporting the current flat‑to‑firm tone at origin. Mild, mostly dry spring weather in Andalusia, Extremadura and much of inland Spain, and warm, predominantly dry conditions in California’s Central Valley, point to limited short‑term yield stress, though any late frost or localized rain during nut set would quickly change sentiment.

Prices

All prices below are approximate current market levels converted to EUR.

Spanish domestic reference prices for Marcona and Guara at key exchanges around late March are clustered near EUR 6.0/kg and EUR 5.1–5.3/kg respectively, consistent with the origin offers shown above and confirming a sideways, slightly firmer tone.

Supply & Demand

California shipment data for February show exports up about 23–24% year‑on‑year, even as US domestic offtake fell around 20%, leaving total shipments up 12% versus the prior year and around 68% of the crop already sold. This underpins a balanced to slightly tight global pipeline despite still‑comfortable inventories.

In Spain, a recent industry review highlights a ~50% surge in shelled almond imports in 2025 as prices recovered from previous lows, signalling robust demand from roasters and confectionery users and reinforcing Spain’s role as a key EU gateway for Californian product. This helps support Spanish origin prices despite competition from imported US kernels.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are beginning to influence trade flows, with reports of cargo rerouting via the UAE and higher logistics costs, though this has not yet translated into a visible price spike at origin. For now, the main risk is logistical delays rather than fundamental shortage.

Fundamentals & Weather

Spain (ES): Key producing regions such as Andalusia, Extremadura, Aragon and Catalonia are entering mid‑spring under generally mild conditions. April climatology in much of Spain features moderate temperatures with variable but not excessive rainfall; current forecasts point to mostly seasonal weather, supporting good nut set on the trees. No major hail or windstorm events have been reported in the last few days in core almond belts.

United States (US): In California, the earlier bloom period passed under unusually warm, dry conditions in many inland areas, with only isolated frost alerts in February. Forecasts into mid‑April suggest a shift to cooler, unsettled weather with some rain and high‑elevation snow, but significant damaging frost in main almond districts is not currently highlighted. Overall, yield prospects look broadly stable, keeping a lid on weather‑driven price spikes in the immediate term.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading View

Market bias (next 1–2 weeks): Sideways to mildly firm. Strong export shipments and resilient EU demand are offset by comfortable global stocks and stable weather.

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Use current stability to extend coverage modestly into late Q2, especially for premium Spanish Marcona and organic Nonpareil, which could tighten first if weather or logistics deteriorate.
• Producers / Sellers: With prices holding but not rallying, consider a disciplined selling program on rallies, particularly for standard US Carmel and Spanish Valencia grades, while keeping some upside open through summer in case of weather surprises.
• Traders: Watch Middle East shipping routes and any sudden changes in California weather forecasts; short‑term volatility is more likely from logistics or risk sentiment than from fundamentals in the coming week.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Spain (ES, FOB Madrid – Marcona/Guara/Valencia): Prices expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next three days, with a slight upward bias for Marcona if Spanish spot benchmarks continue to firm.
• United States (US, FAS/FOB – California kernels in Washington D.C. quotes): Flat tone anticipated in the next three days; strong shipment data are already priced in, and no immediate weather shock is visible in the forecast.