Almond Prices Ease as California Bloom Faces Heat and Spanish Supply Builds

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are edging slightly lower in mid‑March, with most key grades down around EUR 0.05/kg over the past week amid comfortable supply and only modest nearby demand. Weather during California bloom has turned unusually warm, raising some pollination risks but not yet triggering a bullish reaction from buyers.

European and US almond markets are currently driven more by stock coverage and forward buying strategies than by weather headlines. Spanish supply for 2025/26 is projected slightly higher year on year, reinforcing a well‑supplied tone in Europe, while California handlers still work through large carry‑over stocks despite a marginally smaller crop. Global demand continues to grow, but at a manageable pace and with trade flows reshaped by new EU import duties on US almonds from late 2025. In this context, pricing for standard kernels in Spain and US remains soft to sideways, with only premium niche segments holding notable differentials.

📈 Prices

All prices below are indicative mid‑March 2026 levels, expressed in EUR/kg (approximate FX: 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR).

Origin	Type / Grade	Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1‑week change
US	Carmel SSR 18/20	FAS	≈ 6.20	▼ ~0.06
US	Carmel SSR 20/22	FAS	≈ 6.20	▼ ~0.07
US	Nonpareil 27/30, organic	FOB	≈ 8.60	▼ ~0.05
Spain	Marcona 12/14	FOB Madrid	≈ 6.10	▼ ~0.05
Spain	Marcona S/16	FOB Madrid	≈ 8.10	▼ ~0.05
Spain	Valencia 12/14	FOB Madrid	≈ 5.15	▼ ~0.05
Spain	Guara S/14	FOB Madrid	≈ 5.65	▼ ~0.05
Spain	Nonpareil 27/30, organic	FOB Madrid	≈ 10.60	▼ ~0.05

• Spanish Marcona and Valencia grades in Madrid are broadly aligned with ranges reported for 2025 Spanish crop, where Marcona traded around EUR 6.70–9.00/kg and standard varieties around EUR 5.50–6.00/kg.
• Global almond demand remains on a steady growth path (around +6–7% in 2024) but has not been strong enough to trigger a sustained price rally so far in 2026.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Spain (ES): Spanish almond kernel production for 2025/26 is estimated just under 128,000 t, about 5% higher year on year and significantly above the recent four‑year average thanks to expanding acreage and maturing orchards. Regional contrasts are notable: Aragon and Murcia show strong gains, while Andalusia and Castilla‑La Mancha see some declines.

This expansion keeps the Spanish and wider EU market well supplied, even as local weather variability leads to regional yield differences. Higher domestic availability in Spain also reduces some import needs and increases competition with US and Australian origins in the Mediterranean and North‑African demand basin.

United States (US): California still dominates global supply with roughly 80–85% of world output, and recent industry data show continued large salable supplies amid only gradual inventory drawdown. USDA and industry reports for crop year 2025/26 point to a slightly smaller but still historically large crop around the 3.0 billion lb range, with sizeable carry‑in stocks keeping total availability comfortable.

Export shipments from California have been soft year on year, with recent monthly reports showing single‑digit percentage declines versus the previous season as trade tensions and freight costs weigh on flows to Asia and the Middle East. However, EU demand remains structurally strong, and US sellers still find outlets despite the EU’s announced 25% retaliatory duty on US almonds effective from December 2025, which is increasingly shifting some demand toward Spanish and other non‑US origins.

🌦 Weather Focus (ES & US)

California (US): The 2026 almond bloom in California’s Central Valley began in early February, with mixed conditions—some cool, unsettled spells followed by a marked warm‑up in early March. Recent National Weather Service discussions and regional commentary highlight a mid‑March heat wave, with temperatures 20–30°F above normal in parts of inland California, including key nut areas.

Such rapid warming during and just after bloom can shorten flowering duration and stress pollination, especially where orchards faced prior rain or wind events. At this stage, however, no widespread, confirmed yield losses have been reported, and market participants are cautious about overreacting while waiting for objective crop estimates due from USDA and industry sources in the coming months.

Spain (ES): Spanish almond regions entered spring 2026 with generally adequate soil moisture following earlier wet months, although localized issues with hail, pests and excess humidity were already noted in the previous season’s assessments. Early‑season weather in Andalusia, Aragon and Murcia has so far not produced a major downgrade for the 2025/26 crop outlook, and the overall national forecast remains moderately positive compared to last year.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy

• Global balance: World almond production has hovered around 1.2 million t, while consumption exceeded 1.7 million t in 2024, indicating gradual stock drawdown from previous record levels but still ample absolute inventories.
• EU tariffs: The EU’s 25% additional duty on US almonds, effective from December 2025, is slowly redirecting part of EU demand towards Spanish and other origins for both kernels and in‑shell material, with price benchmarks in EU hubs now more reflective of multi‑origin competition.
• Spanish expansion: Continued investment in irrigated, high‑yield orchards (especially in Aragon, Murcia and C. Valenciana) underpins medium‑term growth in Spanish kernel output, even as some traditional rain‑fed areas remain vulnerable to drought and low profitability.

📆 Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Bias: Slightly bearish to sideways for standard US and Spanish kernels (Carmel, Valencia, Guara) given comfortable stocks and only moderate weather risk being priced in.
• Buyers (EU/ES): Consider scaling into coverage on dips for Q2–Q3 needs, particularly for Marcona and organic Nonpareil, where premiums remain but have softened moderately.
• Sellers (US/ES): Maintain price discipline on premium grades but be flexible on standard SSR and industrial material to keep product moving ahead of upcoming official crop estimates, which could add volatility.
• Risk factors: Any confirmed California bloom damage or heat‑related yield issues could quickly firm prices; conversely, stronger‑than‑expected export data from California might cap further downside.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction (ES & US)

• Spain FOB Madrid (Valencia/Guara/Marcona kernels): Stable to slightly weaker (−0.5% to 1%) as sellers remain well offered and domestic/European buyers negotiate hard on premiums.
• US FAS/FOB (Carmel, Nonpareil kernels): Mostly stable (−0.5% to 0.5%), with limited immediate reaction to the California heat episode while the market waits for clearer bloom‑set assessments.