Almond Prices Ease as Warm US Weather Supports Crop Prospects

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are drifting slightly lower in late March, with modest week‑on‑week declines across main grades. Warm, mainly dry weather in California and generally stable conditions in Spanish growing regions are supporting comfortable new‑crop expectations, limiting any upside momentum in spot values.

The market remains largely supply‑led: California benefits from ample carry‑in and a generally favorable bloom and early nut‑set, while Spanish producers report no major weather‑related setbacks so far this month. With the euro relatively firm against the US dollar, European buyers see little currency‑driven cost pressure on US origin. Trading interest is selective, and nearby demand is described as steady but not strong, encouraging sellers to accept marginally lower bids to keep product moving.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Using an indicative EUR/USD of 1.16 based on early‑March market references, current offers translate into the following approximate levels:

Origin	Type / Grade	Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1‑week Change (EUR/kg)
US	Carmel SSR 18/20	FAS Washington D.C.	≈ 5.78	≈ -0.04
US	Carmel SSR 20/22	FAS Washington D.C.	≈ 5.73	≈ -0.04
US (organic)	Nonpareil 27/30, natural	FOB Washington D.C.	≈ 8.03	≈ -0.04
Spain	Marcona 12/14	FOB Madrid	6.60	-0.05
Spain	Marcona S/16	FOB Madrid	8.85	-0.05
Spain	Valencia 12/14	FOB Madrid	5.55	-0.05
Spain	Guara S/14	FOB Madrid	6.10	-0.05
Spain (organic)	Nonpareil 27/30, natural	FOB Madrid	11.45	-0.05

Key observations:

• Both US and Spanish reference grades have slipped by roughly EUR 0.04–0.05/kg over the last week.
• Spanish Valencia‑type and Guara remain at a discount to Marcona and to organic nonpareil, which keep a sizeable premium.
• In USD terms, US origin levels are broadly stable to slightly softer, with the mild EUR strength cushioning prices for European buyers.

🌍 Supply, Weather & Crop Outlook (US & ES)

United States (California)

Recent reports from California point to an exceptionally warm March in many inland valleys, with daytime temperatures well above seasonal norms through mid‑month. This warmth has accelerated phenological development across tree crops, including almonds, and generally supported good bloom progression and early nut set where water is available.

While the warm pattern raises concerns about long‑term water resources and potential heat stress later in the season, no widespread frost scares or severe storms have been reported in the last few days that would materially threaten the 2026 crop. Informal regional commentary suggests almond bloom in key Central Valley areas is largely complete, and orchards are moving into early nut development under benign conditions.

Spain

Across Spain, March weather has been variable but without a major nationwide cold event. The winter and early spring were marked by a sequence of Atlantic storms, including named windstorms affecting the Iberian Peninsula, but these have been more significant for wind and coastal impacts than for deep inland freezes.

Almond‑growing regions in Andalusia, Aragón and Catalonia have seen alternating rainy and milder periods, which support soil moisture but can complicate localized pollination where rainfall coincides with bloom. However, in the last several days no acute frost or hail episode specifically targeting major almond belts has been flagged in the public weather and news flow, keeping Spanish supply expectations broadly stable for now.

📊 Fundamentals & Demand

• Supply: Comfortable US carry‑in from the previous marketing year, combined with an apparently normal to above‑average 2026 California crop outlook, underpins a heavy global supply picture. Warm weather has reduced near‑term frost risk, removing a key bullish driver.
• Spain’s role: Spanish production, while much smaller than California’s, is critical for the Mediterranean premium segment (Marcona, Valencia, Guara). Current prices suggest no acute availability squeeze, and spreads between Spanish and US origin remain mostly in line with quality and freight differentials.
• Demand: There are no strong indications from the latest trade and news flow of a sudden demand surge from Europe or Asia in the past few days. Buyers are described as price‑sensitive and mostly hand‑to‑mouth, limiting the market’s ability to rally.
• Currency: With EUR/USD oscillating around the mid‑1.1s to 1.16 area in early March, the currency backdrop is neutral to slightly favorable for euro‑zone importers of US almonds, marginally reinforcing the downward pressure on euro‑denominated replacement costs.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Given the current weather and supply backdrop, the near‑term bias for almond prices in both US and Spanish origins remains mildly bearish to sideways. Absent a late spring weather shock or a sudden pickup in export bookings, sellers are likely to continue conceding small discounts to stimulate volume.

Trading outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• European buyers: Consider scaling in coverage for Q2 needs on price dips, especially for Spanish Valencia and Guara grades that now sit near the lower end of their recent range in EUR terms.
• Premium segments: For Marcona and organic nonpareil, the premium remains wide but is softening; opportunistic buyers may secure small parcels at slightly better levels if spot liquidity is thin.
• US origin importers: Monitor EUR/USD; any further euro strength would effectively cheapen US offers in Europe and could justify extending coverage modestly before summer weather volatility returns.
• Producers: With fundamentals heavy, hedging a portion of expected 2026 production on modest rallies appears prudent, particularly for standard grades exposed to global oversupply.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• US (FAS/FOB, California‑linked, benchmarked in Washington D.C.): With stable to slightly easing fundamentals and no fresh weather threats, EUR‑equivalent prices are expected to trade steady to slightly lower over the next three days, within a band of roughly ±1–2% from current levels.
• Spain (FOB Madrid, all main varieties): In the absence of disruptive weather or sudden export demand, prices are likely to remain sideways with a mild soft tone, also in a narrow ±1–2% range, with potential for small buyer‑driven discounts on larger lots.