Almonds: Indian Profit-Taking Dip Masks Still-Bullish Global Fundamentals

Indian almond prices have corrected sharply on profit taking and thin holiday trade, but the pullback looks temporary against a still‑constructive global supply backdrop and a weak rupee cost base. India’s wholesale almond market ended the week of 28 May on the back foot as California kernel values at Delhi’s dry fruits hub fell back after a strong early‑month rally. The sell-off was driven less by fundamentals and more by stockists locking in gains amid soft retail demand around Eid al-Adha and disrupted logistics from a truckers’ strike. Underneath, structural supports remain in place: weather-affected Australian output, firming US prices and a rupee hovering around 95–96 per dollar keep import costs elevated and restocking risks high. For European buyers using India as a sentiment gauge, the move reads as a technical correction within an uptrend, with a rebound likely as post-holiday demand normalises.

Prices & Short-Term Dynamics

At Delhi’s dry fruits market, California almond kernel — the key benchmark for India’s premium trade — dropped to about EUR 83.5–83.9 per kg (converted from roughly $89.86–90.28/kg) after losing the equivalent of about EUR 11.7–13.7 per kg over the week, following a pronounced earlier rally. The fall was concentrated in a few sessions as stockists who had bought lower took advantage of thin holiday‑affected demand to crystallise profits, rather than responding to any sudden improvement in global supply.

International reference prices remain firm. Recent indicative offers for US origin kernels stand near EUR 6.0–8.4 per kg FOB/FAS depending on variety and origin, only marginally softer than mid‑May and still well above levels seen earlier this year. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types show a similar pattern of slight week‑on‑week easing but no structural breakdown. Against that backdrop, the scale of the Delhi correction looks disproportionate relative to underlying global benchmarks and appears driven by local positioning and liquidity rather than a change in world fundamentals.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The broader almond supply picture is still moderately tight. Australia’s latest harvest, completed in late southern‑hemisphere summer, suffered meaningful weather disruptions, trimming both yields and quality and limiting Southern Hemisphere availability just as buying from Asia and Europe remained steady. Market commentary around major Australian processors continues to highlight weather‑related challenges and constrained supply, even as some producers target gradual crop recovery in coming seasons.

California, which still accounts for around three‑quarters of global output, is moving into the 2026 marketing season with only modest production growth expectations. Recent industry and USDA‑linked outlooks put the upcoming crop in the vicinity of 2.7 billion pounds on a shelled basis — roughly flat on last year — while position reports show strong shipments keeping pipeline inventories tight. This keeps US farm‑gate and export prices on an upward trajectory and transmits directly into higher import costs for India, which relies almost entirely on overseas supply. With import rules making diversification into alternative origins cumbersome, buyers remain heavily exposed to US and Australian supply lines, amplifying any weather or logistics‑driven disruptions.

Macroeconomics, Currency & Fundamentals

Currency is a key part of the story. The Indian rupee has been trading near historic lows of roughly 95–96 per US dollar in recent sessions, meaning that every dollar increase in California or Australian almond prices is magnified in local‑currency terms. This creates a structural floor under rupee‑denominated almond prices in India, even if local spot markets periodically correct on profit‑taking or demand lulls.

Domestically, last week’s truckers’ strike further thinned trading volumes by hampering transport into and out of key wholesale hubs, limiting buyer participation and exaggerating price moves. At the same time, Eid al‑Adha softened near‑term retail offtake across the dry fruits complex, giving stockists an incentive to cash in earlier gains and temporarily crowding out fresh demand. Importantly, those same stockists are reluctant to sell too aggressively given uncertainty around restocking at lower levels if US and Australian availability tightens into the new crop year. This optionality value on carry stocks is an additional bullish underpinning for the next leg higher.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather remains a central risk factor. In Australia, a sequence of strong low‑pressure systems has delivered heavy rainfall across parts of the south‑east in late May, following an already weather‑affected harvest; growers report yield and quality pressures alongside drying and logistics challenges. While some moisture is beneficial for orchard health, excess rain during critical periods tends to tighten exportable supplies. In California, recent crop assessments and subjective forecasts point to a broadly normal‑sized 2026 crop rather than a bumper year, with water costs and orchard removals limiting upside.

For the next few weeks, no major weather relief is expected that would significantly loosen global almond supply. Instead, the risk balance tilts mildly bullish: any additional adverse weather in key growing regions would likely support or extend the current firming trend in international prices, feeding directly into import parity calculations for India and, by extension, into cost bases for European confectionery and snack manufacturers relying on almond ingredients.

Price Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Given the combination of technical selling, thin liquidity and unaltered fundamentals, the recent Indian correction looks more like a pause in an ongoing uptrend than the start of a bearish phase. As post‑Eid retail demand normalises and transport flows recover from strike‑related disruptions, fresh buying interest from both retailers and stockists is expected to re‑enter the market. This should gradually absorb near‑term supply overhang and stabilise Delhi spot prices.

On current information, a recovery in California kernel prices at Delhi back towards roughly EUR 89–93 per kg (equivalent to about $96–100/kg) over the coming two to four weeks appears likely, assuming no sharp rally in the rupee or sudden easing in US origin prices. For global users that track Indian benchmarks as a sentiment proxy, that would signal that the bullish structural story — constrained alternative origins, firm California prices, weak rupee — remains intact despite recent volatility.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• European industry buyers: Use the current Indian-led dip more as a signal of short‑term positioning than of global surplus. Consider layering in limited cover for Q3–Q4 needs on any further softness, while retaining flexibility to add on dips if Delhi fails to fully retrace into the EUR 89–93/kg zone.
• Indian stockists and distributors: Avoid over‑aggressive selling at current discounted levels, given the difficulty of securing replacement cargoes if US/Australian supply tightens. Gradual profit‑taking combined with maintaining a core long position into the new California crop looks prudent.
• Roasters and snack brands: With currency risk elevated, consider partial hedging of USD/INR exposure where possible. Securing forward volumes in tranches can smooth input costs if rupee weakness persists alongside firm international almond prices.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction in EUR)