Georgian Hazelnuts Ease While Turkish Origins Firm – Short-Term Pullback
Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Europe edge lower while Turkish FOB values consolidate. Short-term outlook mildly bearish for Georgian FCA Warsaw.
Prices & Differentials
Latest indications for Georgian origin hazelnut kernels ex Warsaw (FCA, conventional) show a modest week‑on‑week decline across all sizes, with 15+ mm around EUR 11.20/kg, 13–15 mm near EUR 11.00/kg and 11–13 mm close to EUR 10.45/kg. This represents roughly EUR 0.10–0.15/kg easing versus late April levels.
In contrast, Turkish origin natural kernels FOB Istanbul have moved slightly higher since late April, with 13–15 mm around EUR 8.50–8.60/kg and 11–13 mm near EUR 8.00/kg. Roasted diced and meal products remain discounted versus natural kernels but are broadly stable after prior corrections. The result is a still‑wide premium of roughly EUR 2.5–3.0/kg for Georgian kernels over comparable Turkish sizes, reflecting perceived quality and EU‑proximate logistics.
Supply, Weather & Demand
Georgia’s main hazelnut regions (Samegrelo, Guria, Imereti) are entering a critical vegetative and nut‑set phase in May–June. Short‑term forecasts for western Georgia point to seasonally mild to warm temperatures with scattered showers but no severe frost risk in the next three days, supporting stable crop prospects and removing a key near‑term bullish trigger.
On the demand side, European confectionery and chocolate manufacturers remain cautious, with coverage for the current quarter largely in place and limited evidence of aggressive forward buying. Turkish supply flows are normal for this time of year, and with the lira historically weak, Turkish exporters retain flexibility to compete, capping upside for premium Georgian offers despite their quality and origin advantages into EU markets.
Fundamentals & Market Tone
The slight softening in Georgian FCA prices reflects a combination of slow spot demand and comfortable warehouse stocks in key EU transit hubs rather than any structural shift in fundamentals. Turkish values, having corrected earlier, are now consolidating, narrowing the discount marginally but still incentivising some price‑sensitive buyers to prefer Turkish origin for industrial uses.
Without a weather shock in Georgia or Turkey, or a strong recovery in European confectionery sales, the market tone is likely to remain slightly heavy in the short term. Buyers are showing limited interest in extending coverage deep into the new crop period, relying instead on regular spot and nearby purchases, which encourages sellers to trim offers to stimulate flow.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Price direction (3–7 days): Mildly bearish for Georgian kernels in Europe; sideways to slightly firmer for Turkish FOB as that market consolidates recent gains.
- For buyers: Gradual scale‑down buying of Georgian 13–15 mm and 15+ mm is attractive near current levels, but there is no urgency to chase; consider staggering purchases over the coming weeks.
- For sellers: Maintain offers close to current levels but stay flexible with small discounts for larger-volume or long‑term clients, particularly on smaller sizes where substitute Turkish product is more competitive.
- Risk watch: Monitor June weather in Georgian orchards and any new supply or export policy signals from Turkey that could tighten or loosen availability.
3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)
- Warsaw (FCA, Georgian kernels 11–13 / 13–15 / 15+ mm): Slight downward bias, with potential softening of up to EUR 0.05–0.10/kg if buying remains subdued.
- Istanbul (FOB, Turkish kernels 11–13 / 13–15 mm): Largely stable to marginally firmer, with any gains likely limited to EUR 0.05/kg as the market consolidates.