Argentina peanuts stabilize as exports ease and processing capacity grows

Argentina’s peanut sector is normalizing after recent boom‑and‑bust swings in area and prices, with MY2026/27 output projected slightly higher and exports easing on softer Chinese demand. The market remains export‑oriented and vertically integrated, while new processing capacity and strong peanut oil values underpin grower returns rather than triggering aggressive expansion.

After a sharp acreage correction in MY2025/26, Argentina’s peanut area is set to recover modestly, driven by contract demand from processors and relative input cost advantages versus corn. Weather in Córdoba is seasonally humid with some thunderstorms in the coming days, but overall crop conditions are rated good and yield expectations remain slightly above trend. International prices for competing origins (India, Brazil) are broadly stable in euro terms, suggesting only limited short‑term volatility for Argentine export values.

📈 Prices & International Context

Peanut prices at key competing origins are currently steady in EUR terms, providing a relatively stable reference for Argentine exporters. Recent offers show Indian FOB bold and Java kernels largely unchanged and Brazilian raw peanuts flat, indicating limited immediate upward pressure from rival suppliers.

Converted roughly at 1 EUR ≈ 1.08–1.10 USD, current offers imply the following order of magnitude:

Origin / Type	Location & Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)
India – bold 60–70	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 1.00
India – Java 50–60	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 1.31
India – roasted split 60/70/80	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 1.22
Brazil – raw	Brasília, FOB	≈ 1.29

Against this backdrop, Argentine grower returns are supported by strong world peanut oil prices around the equivalent of about EUR 550–580/MT, which help processors maintain contract prices near USD 600/MT (≈ EUR 545–565/MT) at farm level. This level is sufficient to keep producers profitable and underpins the modest rebound in planted area.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Post projects Argentina’s peanut production in MY2026/27 at around 1.5 MMT, with planted area rising to 420,000 ha and yields slightly above trend at roughly 3.6 MT/ha. This follows a contraction in MY2025/26, when planted area dropped to 390,000 ha and production to about 1.38 MMT after a previous year of high prices and strong expansion.

Rotation requirements (one peanut crop every three to seven years per field), plus logistics constraints beyond roughly 100 km from processing plants, are limiting further expansion in the traditional core zones. Córdoba will still account for about 68% of output, with northern Buenos Aires near 18% and growing shares in southern Santa Fe, northern La Pampa and San Luis as processors contract acreage in new areas to sustain throughput.

On the demand side, crush is expected to remain flat at about 250,000 MT in MY2026/27, as the bulk of production continues to be blanched and exported rather than crushed. Domestic food use is forecast around 95,000 MT, with Argentina remaining a low‑consumption market by international standards despite a gradual rise in peanut‑based products such as peanut butter.

📊 Fundamentals: Trade, Policy & Industry Structure

Exports are forecast to edge down to about 850,000 MT in MY2026/27, mainly reflecting weaker opportunistic demand from China, which had re‑entered the Argentine market in MY2025/26 to secure higher‑quality edible peanuts while exporting its own lower‑quality crop. The EU remains by far the dominant destination, absorbing nearly all Argentine shipments thanks to high quality, flavor and low aflatoxin incidence.

Argentina will likely retain its position as the world’s top peanut exporter, even as it ranks only sixth in global production. The sector is highly export‑oriented and vertically integrated: roughly 25 companies control almost all national production through grower contracts, managing planting, processing and exports. Farm‑level stocks are negligible; processors hold virtually all inventories to keep shelling and blanching lines running year‑round.

Policy developments are mildly supportive but not transformative. Export taxes on peanuts were permanently removed in January 2025, but the sector was already nearly fully export‑oriented, so the impact on volumes is limited. More strategically, the EU‑MERCOSUR agreement, once implemented, will phase out EU tariffs on imports of peanut paste and peanut butter from Argentina, improving the competitiveness of higher value‑added exports over time.

A new processing facility in northern Buenos Aires Province is expected to start operating in MY2026/27 after delays, adding an estimated 100,000–150,000 MT of capacity and lifting total national capacity to around 850,000 MT per year. This plant, the first outside the traditional peanut heartland, will gradually stimulate local area expansion and reinforces the sector’s shift toward value‑added products such as blanched peanuts and paste.

⛅ Weather & Crop Conditions (Argentina)

For MY2025/26, crop conditions are generally rated good, with western Córdoba having faced a 45‑day dry spell earlier in the season that trimmed yield potential. Rains returned from mid‑February, stabilizing conditions, and no major pest or disease problems have been reported.

Over the next three days (13–15 April 2026) in Córdoba, forecasts indicate mostly cloudy, humid conditions with scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs around 22–24°C. A brief yellow storm warning is in place for parts of the province, implying locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but these events are short‑lived and typical for the period. Overall, the outlook is not expected to materially worsen national yield prospects.

📌 Key Drivers & Risks

• Input and land costs: High fertilizer prices favor peanuts over corn because peanuts require no fertilizer, but land rent remains more than 50% of processors’ production costs, limiting margin flexibility.
• Processing capacity: Nearly all area is contracted and directly tied to existing processing capacity; any significant future expansion depends on new investments in plants or debottlenecking existing lines.
• Export demand mix: Softer Chinese interest in MY2026/27 is partially offset by stable EU confectionery demand and emerging opportunities in value‑added products (paste, butter).
• Logistics constraints: Trucking costs make production beyond about 100 km from processing plants uneconomic, capping expansion in more remote areas.

📆 Price & Trading Outlook (Next 3–6 Months)

• Flat‑to‑firm EUR prices: With Argentina’s crop recovering modestly and competing origins such as India and Brazil pricing near EUR 1.00–1.30/kg FOB, export prices for high‑quality Argentine blanched peanuts are likely to remain broadly stable, with a slight firm bias if EU demand for confectionery grades stays robust.
• Limited downside from policy: The removal of export taxes is already priced in and does not by itself generate additional supply. Any incremental pressure will likely come from larger‑than‑expected crops rather than policy shifts.
• Upside risk from weather or logistics: Localized storms, harvest delays or port/logistics bottlenecks could temporarily tighten nearby availability, especially for specific grades and sizes required by EU buyers.

🧭 Strategic Pointers for Market Participants

• Importers (EU, Asia): Consider layering in forward coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs while prices are anchored by the current comfortable balance and before potential implementation of more favorable tariffs for processed products shifts trade flows.
• Argentine processors/exporters: Maintain disciplined contracting close to real processing capacity and logistics constraints, prioritizing quality and aflatoxin control to defend premium pricing in the EU market.
• Producers: Given no fertilizer requirement and contract prices near EUR 550–565/MT equivalent, peanuts remain an attractive alternative to high‑input crops, but growers should manage exposure to land rents and respect rotation limits to preserve soil health and yields.

📉 Short‑Term Regional Price Indication (3‑Day View)

• Argentina (export parity, Córdoba/ports, EUR basis): Sideways; minor weather‑related noise possible but no structural driver for sharp moves in the next three days.
• Brazil (FOB, raw peanuts): Stable around the current equivalent of ≈ EUR 1.25–1.30/kg, tracking steady export demand.
• India (FOB, bold/Java kernels): Mostly flat within EUR 1.00–1.30/kg across main grades, with narrow intra‑grade adjustments driven by quality and destination requirements.