Organic Indian Cassia Holds Firm as Asian Supply Stays Ample

Organic cassia from India is entering mid-March 2026 with remarkably steady export quotations, even as broader Asian cassia flows remain ample and Vietnamese and Indonesian suppliers dominate global trade. Over the past month, FOB New Delhi offers for organic whole cassia have flatlined around EUR 5.55/kg, reflecting a balance between firm underlying import demand and comfortable availability from key origins. While India is a relatively small producer compared with Indonesia, Vietnam and China, it is a major importer and re-exporter of cassia-based products, particularly servicing blended spice, bakery and beverage industries. That dual role is keeping domestic buyers attentive to currency moves, freight, and competing offers from Southeast Asia rather than to abrupt local supply shocks. Regionally, Vietnamese exports to India remain strong and Indonesian Korintje cassia continues to anchor the low-cost segment, limiting upside for Indian-origin offers despite a generally supportive global spices complex. Weather-wise, the outlook for India over March–May points to hotter-than-normal conditions, but cassia trees are relatively resilient and no acute, crop-specific stress has yet translated into price spikes. In this context, the cassia market today is more a story of stable fundamentals and competitive positioning than of volatility: exporters see little incentive to adjust price ideas, importers enjoy a period of predictability, and only a significant currency swing, logistics disruption, or sudden policy change in a major producing country is likely to break the current equilibrium in the very short term.

Prices

Spot & recent trend – Organic Cassia, India (FOB New Delhi)

Note: Data show a ~0.9% uptick in mid-February followed by four consecutive weekly closes at EUR 5.55/kg, indicating a narrow and well-anchored trading range.

Indicative international cassia levels (converted to EUR)

There is no central cassia futures contract like for major grains, but spot indications from key Asian exporters help frame competitiveness for Indian-origin offers:

Supply & Demand

Global structure

• Global cassia supply is highly concentrated in Indonesia, Vietnam and China, which together account for well over 90% of world cassia output.
• Recent industry estimates place Indonesian cassia output around 90,000 tonnes, Vietnam about 75,000 tonnes, and China roughly 60,000 tonnes annually, underscoring their dominance.
• India is a minor producer (3,000–4,000 tonnes) but an important importer and consumer, especially for cassia-based cinnamon used in blends and processed foods.

Trade flows & India’s position

• Vietnam’s cinnamon/cassia exports hit a record 120,295 tonnes in 2025, with export value above USD 300 million. India remained the single largest buyer, taking 45,184 tonnes (≈38% of Vietnam’s cinnamon exports), up nearly 26% year-on-year.
• Industry commentary continues to describe Vietnam, Indonesia and China as the principal cassia suppliers, while India is increasingly cited as an emerging niche supplier and major import hub.
• European buyers are structurally shifting toward cheaper cassia types at the expense of premium Ceylon cinnamon, keeping underlying cassia demand in the EU firm.
• India’s own export mix leans more on Ceylon-type cinnamon and value-added spice blends, but cassia imports (mainly from Vietnam and Indonesia) underpin domestic consumption and re-exports of mixed products.

Fundamentals

Relative price level and competitiveness

• The current Indian organic cassia FOB New Delhi level of EUR 5.55/kg sits modestly above indicative bulk cassia offers from Vietnam and Indonesia (≈EUR 4.2–5.0/kg), reflecting both organic certification and smaller domestic production.
• Domestic wholesale quotes for non-organic cassia in key Indian markets such as Chennai recently hovered around INR 300 per kg (≈EUR 3.30/kg at current FX), highlighting the premium commanded by export-grade organic product.
• Global cinnamon export price series for India show a moderate uptrend over recent years (with modeled values reaching USD 6.09/kg in 2024), suggesting room for gradual long-term appreciation, though near-term spot values are currently locked in a narrow band.

Macro & cross-commodity backdrop

• Other Indian spices such as cardamom have experienced more volatility on domestic exchanges in early March 2026, but this has not yet spilled over into cassia pricing, which remains driven by international cassia availability and import parity economics.
• Broader global trade conditions remain challenging but manageable; India’s exports to both the US and China have grown over FY25, indicating resilient demand for a range of agrifood products despite geopolitical friction.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: IN)

Short- to medium-term conditions

• Seasonal outlooks for India indicate a hotter-than-usual period from March to May 2026 across large parts of the country.
• While cassia in India is not as geographically concentrated as in Indonesia or Vietnam, heat anomalies may lead to localized moisture stress and could marginally affect bark thickness and oil content if heat coincides with key growth stages, as has been observed in Vietnam during prior drought episodes.
• No major weather shocks specific to India’s cassia-growing belts have been reported in early March 2026; overall, the crop outlook remains broadly neutral for the next few weeks.

Implications for prices

• Given India’s relatively small share in global cassia production, any moderate weather-related yield impact is unlikely to move international prices materially in the very short term.
• However, prolonged hotter-than-normal conditions through May could support a slightly firmer tone later in Q2 if they coincide with tighter physical availability out of Indonesia or Vietnam.

Short-Term Price Outlook (3-Day, Region: IN)

Baseline scenario: continued stability

Based on the flat price series since 2026-02-21, ample global cassia supply, and the absence of acute weather or policy shocks in India, the most likely path for the next three trading days (2026-03-16 to 2026-03-18) is continued stability around current levels.

• Upside risks (low probability, short horizon): unexpected tightening of Vietnamese or Indonesian export availability, INR depreciation raising local currency returns to exporters, or logistics disruptions.
• Downside risks: aggressive price offers from Southeast Asian suppliers into key Indian import channels, or softening demand from EU and Middle Eastern buyers.

Trading Outlook

• Exporters (India, organic cassia): Current levels around EUR 5.55/kg FOB New Delhi appear competitive as a niche organic offer but not under immediate upward pressure. Consider maintaining offer ideas while exploring small premiums for certified and traceable lots into EU and North America, where demand for organic and sustainably sourced cassia remains resilient.
• Importers / industrial buyers (EU, Middle East): With prices flat for four weeks and strong supply from Vietnam, Indonesia and China, this is an opportunity to secure short-term coverage (1–3 months) without chasing the market. Focus on origin diversification to hedge against potential weather or logistics issues in any single supplier country.
• Indian processors & blenders: Domestic cassia wholesale values and import-parity calculations suggest minimal immediate downside. Staggered purchases are advisable, but a core position at current levels appears justified given firm structural demand and gradually rising long-term export price trends.
• Speculative participants: In the absence of a dedicated cassia futures contract and given the very tight physical range, opportunities are limited in the ultra-short term. Spreads versus related spices (e.g., cardamom or pepper) may offer relative value, but cassia itself is likely to remain a low-volatility corner of the spice complex in the coming days.