Indian and Brazilian peanut prices ease slightly as supply remains comfortable

Indian and Brazilian peanut export prices are drifting slightly lower in late March, with most grades in both origins showing modest week‑on‑week declines and no acute weather threat in key growing belts. Peanut kernels and birdfeed values out of India have softened by roughly 1–2% over the past week, reflecting steady post‑harvest arrivals, comfortable domestic oilseed supply and only selective export demand in nearby positions. In Brazil, raw peanut offers are also edging down from earlier March levels, as weaker oil export demand leaves more kernels for shipment, while field conditions in São Paulo and neighboring producing regions remain seasonally favorable. With no major weather shocks on the horizon for Brazil or India in the next few days, the near‑term tone is mildly bearish to sideways, with buyers able to negotiate small discounts for April–May loadings.

Prices & Recent Moves

Indian export offers (FOB/CFR, converted to EUR) are slightly softer compared with mid‑March. Birdfeed peanuts from India have eased by around 2% week on week, and bold grades are down roughly 1%, while java types are broadly stable. Brazilian raw peanut FOB values have slipped marginally as well, tracking weaker oil demand and abundant soybean/oilseed availability in the broader complex.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

In India, official outlooks continue to point to robust groundnut production for the 2025–26 cycle, with kharif output projected above the previous year, led by Gujarat and Rajasthan. This reinforces a comfortable supply backdrop into Q2 2026, limiting upside in export prices unless there is a sharp pickup in demand from China or Southeast Asia.

Globally, peanut supply in 2024/25 is projected to rise modestly versus 2023/24, with India and Brazil both contributing to the increase, while world consumption growth remains steady but not explosive. In Brazil, recent industry data highlighted a sharp year‑on‑year decline in peanut oil exports in the 2023/24 crop, freeing additional kernels for export and putting mild downward pressure on kernel prices.

Weather Outlook – BR & IN

For Brazil’s main peanut belt in São Paulo and neighboring states over the next three days, short‑term forecasts indicate seasonally warm conditions with scattered showers but no severe, widespread rainfall anomalies. This pattern is broadly favorable for late‑cycle fieldwork and logistics, with only localized delays possible.

In India, key groundnut regions such as Gujarat and Rajasthan are moving through a relatively dry late‑rabi period, with no major storms or heat spikes expected in the immediate three‑day window. Current forecasts point to typical pre‑summer conditions, supporting stable yield prospects and reinforcing the view of ample domestic supply in the near term.

Market Drivers & Risks

• Ample Indian crop: Official projections for higher Indian groundnut production in 2025–26 add to export availability and cap price rallies, especially for bold grades.
• Brazilian oil weakness: A sizeable drop in Brazilian peanut oil exports in the 23/24 crop year versus 22/23 has redirected raw material toward kernels, tempering FOB price strength.
• Macro & freight: Broader oilseed sentiment and freight volatility remain a background risk; any spike in energy prices or freight disruptions could quickly feed into CIF values, even with comfortable origin stocks.

3‑Day Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Indian origin – buyers: Near‑term tone is mildly bearish to sideways. Importers looking at April–May shipment can continue staggered coverage, targeting small discounts versus current offers, especially on bold and birdfeed grades.
• Indian origin – sellers: Maintain offer discipline on java kernels, where prices are comparatively firmer, but consider rewarding any short‑covering rallies to lock margins amid ample crop prospects.
• Brazilian origin – buyers: With kernels freed from weaker oil demand, buyers can negotiate slightly lower FOB levels in the next few days, but should monitor any logistics or weather‑related disruptions in São Paulo.

Short-Term Regional Price Bias (Next 3 Days)

• India (FOB New Delhi, bold & birdfeed): Slight downward to sideways bias (▼ to ➖), driven by comfortable supply and steady arrivals.
• India (FOB New Delhi, java): Sideways (➖), with limited downside as export interest focuses on higher‑count java kernels.
• Brazil (FOB, raw peanuts): Slight downward bias (▼), reflecting soft oil demand and no immediate weather threat.