CBOT Oats Edge Higher While Black Sea Feed Oats Stay Competitive

CBOT oat futures are inching higher along the curve, but price moves are still modest and liquidity thin. Nearby contracts hold a premium over new crop, signalling a cautious risk premium for 2026/27 supply, while Black Sea physical values remain very competitive in EUR terms. The oat market currently trades in a narrow but upward-sloping range. On CBOT, the front May 2026 contract hovers just above 320 US‑ct/bu, with modest gains of around 0.1% day on day and very light volumes, suggesting limited speculative interest. Further out, 2027–2028 contracts price in only a small additional carry, reflecting broadly balanced longer‑term fundamentals rather than a pronounced surplus. In the physical market, Ukrainian feed oats in Odesa show a slight firming in late April but remain cheap on an FCA basis in euro terms, underlining strong price competitiveness into nearby Mediterranean destinations.

Prices & Curve Structure

CBOT oat futures show a mildly bullish tone across the forward curve:

• May 2026: last at 323.00 US‑ct/bu (+0.08% vs. previous close, very low volume).
• July 2026: 338.50 US‑ct/bu (+0.15%), indicating a firm nearby structure.
• September 2026: 343.25 US‑ct/bu, up 0.96% versus the last settlement, albeit on minimal trading.
• December 2026: 343.25 US‑ct/bu (+0.07%), essentially flat vs. September, showing a very shallow carry.

Beyond 2026, listed contracts for 2027–2028 cluster in a tight 334–349 US‑ct/bu range, with indicative quotes but no traded volume. This points to an only slightly higher forward price level and underlines the absence of strong bearish supply expectations further out.

Note: EUR/t approximations assume 1 bu = 0.032 t and 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.

Physical Market & Basis (Black Sea)

In the physical segment, Ukrainian feed oats (98% purity, FCA Odesa) have shown a slight but noticeable firming in April while remaining at very low euro price levels:

• 02 April 2026: 0.24 EUR/kg (≈ 240 EUR/t).
• 09 & 17 April 2026: stable at 0.24 EUR/kg.
• 23 April 2026: edge higher to 0.25 EUR/kg (≈ 250 EUR/t).

The roughly 10 EUR/t increase during April suggests some tightening in nearby Black Sea supply or higher freight/logistics costs, but the absolute price level still looks competitive versus Western European origins. The relatively flat CBOT forward curve compared to a firmer Black Sea physical market implies a slightly stronger regional basis and potentially resilient export demand into Mediterranean and Middle Eastern destinations.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Balanced global outlook: The modest carry from May 2026 into late 2026 and the narrow range for 2027–2028 contracts point to neither pronounced oversupply nor acute shortage expectations. The market currently prices in broadly balanced fundamentals.
• Thin liquidity: Very low traded volumes, especially in deferred contracts, limit the signal quality of price moves. Small trades can move settlements, which argues for caution when interpreting day‑to‑day changes.
• Feed demand support: The premium of physical Black Sea oats (≈ 240–250 EUR/t FCA) over CBOT‐implied levels reflects logistics, quality and risk premia, but also indicates that regional feed buyers are still willing to pay up for nearby supply.
• Risk sentiment: The slight uptrend across 2026 contracts hints at some weather and geopolitical risk premium, even if not yet aggressive. Markets remain sensitive to planting progress and potential trade disruptions.

Weather & Crop Outlook

For the coming days, key Northern Hemisphere oat regions are entering a crucial period for spring sowing and early crop development. Weather in major producers will be closely watched for moisture conditions and temperature swings that could affect emergence and yield potential.

Given the current mild upward bias in the futures curve, any confirmation of overly dry or excessively wet patterns during this early vegetative phase could quickly add further risk premium. Conversely, a stretch of benign, seasonally normal weather would likely keep the market within the present trading range.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• For buyers (feed & industry): The move of Ukrainian FCA prices from 0.24 to 0.25 EUR/kg signals early firming. Consider covering a portion of Q2–Q3 needs now, while maintaining some flexibility in case of later harvest‑driven relief.
• For producers: The shallow carry and firm physical basis argue for a staggered hedging approach in 2026 contracts rather than full forward selling. Use small rallies on weather scares to incrementally increase hedge coverage.
• For traders: Thin liquidity and a flat forward curve favour spread and basis strategies over outright directional bets. Monitoring the differential between CBOT futures‑implied EUR levels and Black Sea FOB/FCA quotations remains key.

🔭 3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR‑based)

• CBOT oats (nearby, EUR/t equivalent): Slightly firm to sideways; intraday volatility likely modest given low volumes.
• Black Sea feed oats, FCA Odesa (EUR/t): Bias moderately upward after the move to ~250 EUR/t, but no evidence yet of a sharp breakout.
• European delivered prices: Expected to reflect a firm Black Sea basis and stable freight, implying mildly supportive price tendencies.