Indian Clove Prices Ease Slightly but Stay Near Recent Highs

Indian organic clove prices in New Delhi have edged down only marginally, holding close to late‑April highs and signaling a still‑tight global supply backdrop. With Southwest monsoon onset over Kerala expected only around 26 May, immediate weather risks for Indian clove‑adjacent spice areas look limited, while external origins like Indonesia and Madagascar remain the key drivers. Exporters face firm replacement costs but no clear trigger yet for a deeper correction. Indian clove prices are consolidating after the sharp bull run seen through April, with whole and ground organic cloves FOB New Delhi slipping by about EUR 0.04/kg over the last week. The pullback looks more like technical fatigue than a change in fundamentals: international supply from major producers remains constrained and freight costs on long‑haul lanes are still elevated, even though transit times have stabilised. With India largely dependent on imported cloves, traders are watching upcoming crop and weather developments in Indonesia and Madagascar, while domestic demand from masala blenders and packers remains broadly steady.

Prices & Recent Moves

Latest indicative organic FOB New Delhi prices (India, 16 May 2026) show:

• Whole cloves: EUR 9.60/kg (down from 9.64, about −0.4% w/w).
• Ground cloves: EUR 9.70/kg (down from 9.73, about −0.3% w/w).

These values keep Indian offers within a narrow band just below the late‑April peak around EUR 9.64–9.73/kg, confirming a plateau rather than a reversal after the strong gains driven by tight global supply earlier in the quarter.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Indian clove prices remain heavily influenced by import parity. Earlier in May, market reports highlighted a sharp increase of roughly EUR 1.10–1.15/kg in Indian wholesale clove prices over a short period, driven mainly by weather‑affected supply in Madagascar and firm import and freight costs.

On the demand side, indications from India‑focused spice exporters show continued strong interest from EU, UK and Middle East buyers in Indian spices generally, but with heightened scrutiny at EU borders and higher freight baselines due to Red Sea routing issues. This favours well‑documented, higher‑quality lots and helps support prices for organic cloves, even as near‑term domestic demand growth remains moderate.

Weather Outlook (IN-Focused) & External Origins

In key spice regions of Kerala, short‑term forecasts for the Malabar and Kottayam areas point to warm, pre‑monsoon conditions with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, typical for mid‑May. The Southwest monsoon is currently expected to reach Kerala around 26 May, keeping the next few days in a transitional phase rather than a period of heavy, crop‑disruptive rainfall.

For external clove origins, Indonesia is forecast to see hot, humid weather with intermittent rain over the coming week, conditions that are broadly normal for this time of year. While recent research underscores that Indonesia’s clove yields are increasingly sensitive to erratic weather, there is no fresh, last‑three‑day evidence of acute weather stress that would immediately tighten supply further; risks remain skewed to the upside if heavier‑than‑normal rainfall emerges later in the season.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Global tightness persists: Prior weather issues in Madagascar and variability in Indonesian yields keep overall clove availability constrained, underpinning the elevated Indian price level.
• Logistics costs elevated but stable: Exporters to Europe and Australia report that Red Sea disruptions have pushed freight rates 15–25% higher on some lanes, though transit times have stabilised via Cape routes, anchoring replacement costs rather than adding new volatility.
• Regulatory friction into EU: Enhanced EU border checks on spices increase the value of compliant, well‑documented organic shipments, favouring structured exporters and providing a quality premium for clean lots.

Together, these factors argue for a firm price floor around current levels, with meaningful downside likely requiring a clear improvement in 2026/27 clove crop prospects in Indonesia and Madagascar.

Trading Outlook (Short-Term)

• Exporters (IN): Consider locking in part of forward sales at current FOB levels for June–July shipments while keeping some volume open in case of further upside from external supply shocks.
• Importers (EU/UK/Middle East): Use any minor dips below EUR 9.50/kg FOB equivalent as an opportunity to secure coverage through early Q3, prioritising suppliers with strong compliance documentation.
• Speculators/Traders: Near‑term risk–reward still leans mildly bullish; small pullbacks toward recent lows look buyable, but aggressive long positions should be protected with tight downside stops given the already high absolute price level.

3‑Day Price Direction (India, FOB New Delhi)

• Whole cloves, organic: Bias sideways to slightly firm around EUR 9.55–9.70/kg as global tightness offsets modest recent profit‑taking.
• Ground cloves, organic: Bias sideways near EUR 9.65–9.80/kg, with only limited discounting expected for prompt, high‑quality lots.