US pistachios: strong season, softer April exports and tighter 2026/27 outlook

US pistachio shipments remain robust in 2025/26 despite a softer April, with logistics around the Strait of Hormuz and a likely smaller 2026/27 crop setting up a more constructive medium‑term price outlook. After a strong first half of the season, U.S. pistachio movement eased in April as exports dipped from peak levels, while domestic demand continued to grow solidly. Inventories still look sufficient to cover programs through August, but carryout now hinges on shipment pace in the final months. With early indications pointing to a much smaller 2026/27 California crop and tighter supplies from Iran and Turkey, market participants are starting to rebalance between near‑term sales and preserving stock for a potentially tighter year ahead.

Prices & Market Tone

Current indications suggest firm to slightly supported pricing rather than aggressive discounting. Strong year‑to‑date shipments and higher on‑year production have so far been absorbed without creating heavy pressure to clear stocks. At the same time, Middle East logistics disruptions and reduced Iranian and Turkish availability are underpinning sentiment, especially for export‑oriented grades. With a potentially smaller 2026/27 crop on the horizon, sellers are showing more price discipline as they look to manage carryout strategically.

Supply & Demand

US shipment dynamics

• April 2026 total shipments reached 80.1 million lbs, down 1.4% year‑on‑year and 21.8% below March, reflecting a natural step‑down after peak shipping and temporary export headwinds.
• Domestic shipments were the standout, rising 16.9% year‑on‑year to 29.4 million lbs, confirming solid underlying US consumption.
• Exports fell 9.6% to 50.7 million lbs, partly due to a negative shelling stock adjustment (~3.2 million lbs) and weaker flows to the UAE amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions rather than a clear demand loss.

Across the 2025/26 crop year to April, the market remains clearly demand‑driven. Cumulative shipments reached 928.3 million lbs, up 18.8% on last year and 26.8% above the five‑year average. Exports led with a 23.5% year‑on‑year increase to 687.4 million lbs, while domestic movement rose 7.0% to 241.0 million lbs. This profile indicates broad‑based growth, with export programs particularly strong despite recent logistical hurdles.

Global trade flows and regional tightness

Trade patterns in the Middle East remain shaped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted traditional routes and slowed shipments into key re‑export hubs. At the same time, constrained Iranian supply and a smaller Turkish crop are tightening regional availability and shifting more demand attention toward US origin. Market feedback suggests that the April export softness is more about timing and logistics than a structural weakening of end‑market demand, especially as food manufacturers continue to expand pistachio use in value‑added products.

Fundamentals & Inventory

On the supply side, the 2025/26 season is an on‑year in the alternate‑bearing cycle, bringing higher US production. Receipts through April are reported at 1.59 billion lbs, effectively confirming harvest completion. Adjusted inventory edged down 0.6% from March to about 1.488 billion lbs, while estimated marketable inventory dropped 13.8% on the month to 559.7 million lbs as strong shipments and processing flows drew stocks.

Even after this draw, marketable inventory at end‑April remained 14.4% above the comparable point in the previous off‑year season, underscoring that the market is well supplied in the short run. Industry participants generally expect current stocks to adequately support shipment programs through the end of the crop year. However, the final carryout level will be highly sensitive to shipment momentum between May and August; any sustained export normalization, especially if logistics improve, would pull carryout down and tighten the transition into 2026/27.

Weather & Next Crop Outlook

Attention is increasingly turning to the 2026/27 California pistachio crop. Early industry estimates suggest the next harvest could be around 50% of the record 2025 crop, consistent with the alternate‑bearing pattern and recent indications of a global pistachio production pullback versus the prior year. While these forecasts are still preliminary, they point to a materially tighter supply environment from late 2026 onward.

Recent spring weather in California’s Central Valley has raised some concerns across tree nuts, with reports of storms and localized hail and disease pressure. While pistachios are generally hardier than some other nuts, any additional bloom or nut‑set stress in a structurally smaller on‑coming crop would reinforce expectations of constrained 2026/27 availability. This backdrop helps explain why some handlers are signaling a more cautious shipment pace later this season in order to preserve inventory cover.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers (roasters, manufacturers, retailers): Use any short‑term softness linked to April export disruptions to extend coverage into early 2026, especially for key in‑shell and kernel grades. Focus on securing volume from reliable origins as Middle East logistics and Iranian/Turkish supply remain uncertain.
• Sellers/handlers: Maintain disciplined offer levels. With strong year‑to‑date shipments and a likely smaller 2026/27 crop, prioritize margin over volume in late‑season sales and structure contracts that preserve flexibility on timing.
• Traders: Monitor freight and routing developments around the Strait of Hormuz closely. A normalization of routes could trigger a renewed export push and accelerate inventory drawdown, supporting prices into the new crop.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR basis)