Almond Markets Ease as New Crop Expectations Weigh on US and Spanish Prices

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are edging slightly lower as the market transitions toward the 2026/27 crop, with comfortable supply expectations capping any weather-driven risk premium. Spot values for key Spanish Valencia and Marcona types as well as US California kernels have softened modestly compared with early May, reflecting steady export activity but no significant supply shock. Recent reports confirm solid California shipments and a broadly favorable crop outlook, while Spain comes out of an exceptionally warm April with generally supportive conditions for tree nuts despite ongoing drought concerns. Against this backdrop, buyers are regaining some bargaining power, but downside from here looks limited unless the upcoming set and nut-fill period in California or Spain turns sharply negative.

Prices & Spreads

All prices converted from USD to EUR at ~0.92 EUR/USD for comparability.

Spanish wholesale almonds on local exchanges are broadly aligned with these reference levels, with recent quotes around 5.3–5.6 EUR/kg for common types and higher for Marcona in key Spanish hubs.

Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

California remains the key global supplier. The latest Almond Industry Position Report for April 2026 shows shipments continuing at a robust pace, keeping total use on track while still leaving comfortable carry-out in light of the prior large crops. A recent Terra Nova Trading crop estimate and NASS subjective survey point to a 2026 California crop that is broadly adequate, with an early, relatively swift bloom and no major statewide frost disaster reported.

Weather through bloom and early nut set has been variable but not catastrophically adverse. Disease-risk advisories from the Almond Board in March highlighted periods of humidity and showers, yet management measures and subsequent drier, warmer conditions into late spring limited serious damage at scale. Logistics-wise, general US export data show firm overall exports, and niche trade data confirm ongoing almond kernel and value-added shipments, indicating demand remains active even as prices edge lower.

In Spain, AEMET reported that April 2026 was the hottest on record nationally, with average temperatures well above historical norms. For tree nuts, the very warm spring accelerated phenology but also raised irrigation needs; so far there are no large, validated reports of severe yield loss for 2026 almonds. Local price benchmarks from Spanish exchanges, last updated in late February, already reflected tightness earlier in the season, but the subsequent softening in export-parity offers suggests that current supply perceptions are more comfortable, partly thanks to the solid outlook in California.

Fundamentals & Price Implications

• Stocks and shipments: The April industry position data confirm that California handlers are moving product steadily while still carrying ample inventories into the new crop year, arguing against sharp near-term price spikes.
• Crop outlook: Early-bloom assessments and the NASS subjective forecast signal a 2026 California crop close to or moderately below the recent large harvests, but far from a shortage scenario.
• Weather risk: Spain’s record-warm April adds medium-term uncertainty around water availability and kernel quality, yet current field indications do not justify a strong weather premium in Spanish offers.
• Relative value: Spanish Valencia and Guara types are pricing at a discount to premium Marcona and to organic Nonpareil, but still at a modest premium to standard US Carmel kernels on an export-parity basis, supporting continued substitution toward California where specs allow.

Short-Term Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Buyers (EU importers, roasters, confectioners): Use the current soft tone to extend coverage modestly into Q3 2026 on standard US Carmel and Spanish Valencia grades; stagger purchases rather than front-loading, as stocks and crop prospects still look comfortable.
• Sellers (growers, handlers): Maintain offer discipline on premium Marcona and organic Nonpareil, where true availability is tighter. Consider scaling hedges or forward sales on any weather or logistics rallies given the fundamentally balanced-to-bearish backdrop.
• Traders: Watch upcoming California objective yield updates and any emerging reports of heat or water stress in Spain; these are the main triggers that could shift the market from mild contango to a more supported nearby structure.

🔭 3-Day Regional Price Indication

Region ES (Spain, FOB Madrid): With no immediate weather or policy shocks and record-warm April conditions already priced in, spot kernel offers for Valencia and Guara types are likely to remain in a narrow band around current levels (±0.02–0.05 EUR/kg) over the next three days, with slightly firmer tone only for top-quality Marcona and organic Nonpareil.

Region US (California, FAS/FOB ports): Given steady export flows, benign short-term weather and a broadly adequate 2026 crop outlook, US almond kernel prices are expected to trade sideways to slightly softer (0 to -0.05 EUR/kg) in the coming three days, barring any abrupt shifts in freight costs or macro sentiment.