Indian black gram under pressure as imports and new crop weigh on prices

Indian black gram (urad) is drifting lower for a second session as heavy imports and fresh summer-crop arrivals meet weak milling demand, leaving stockists unable to sustain higher offers. Near-term sentiment is mildly bearish, with market direction increasingly dictated by import parity and the pace and quality of summer arrivals. Indian spot markets show a broad but orderly easing. Dal mills are buying only against firm orders despite this being the main consumption window, while government support purchases remain marginal. With importers effectively setting the tone and domestic stockists reluctant sellers at current levels, prices are likely to track a sideways-to-soft pattern in the coming weeks rather than stage any sharp recovery.

Prices

Black gram values have softened across key Indian centers, though the declines remain modest and orderly.

Domestic quotations have eased by the equivalent of about EUR 0.5–0.7 per quintal in Chennai, with similar softness mirrored in Delhi and international offers from Burma.

Supply & Demand

Imports remain the dominant supply driver in the current marketing window. India imported roughly 1.051 million tonnes of urad in 2025–26, a sharp 28% increase from about 820,000 tonnes in 2024–25, firmly anchoring the market to overseas availability.

On top of this, the expanded summer crop is now entering late-season harvest. Fresh arrivals have begun at Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh, where traders report visibly better quality, adding to the supply overhang. Despite the government’s recent Minimum Support Price increase to around EUR 78.1 per 100 kg, official procurement remains marginal, so the bulk of the crop continues to flow into open-market channels.

On the demand side, dal processing mills are buying strictly against confirmed downstream sales rather than building stock, even though this is typically a high-consumption period for urad. Stockists, meanwhile, are attempting to hold material at firmer levels and would prefer a price rebound, but they are meeting little resistance from buyers, who are well covered through imports and spot buying.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Imports in control: Softening Burma CIF offers for FAQ and SQ grades give importers significant leverage in price discovery, capping any attempt by domestic holders to push values higher.
• Expanded summer crop: Increased sown area and improving arrival quality in central India are adding incremental supplies precisely as imports are high, intensifying competition between domestic and imported origins.
• Limited policy support: The MSP has been raised only modestly, and actual government procurement is limited, meaning the MSP functions more as a psychological floor than a strong physical buffer.
• Weak mill buying: Hand-to-mouth purchasing by dal mills keeps near-term demand subdued and reinforces a buyer’s market, especially in coastal arrival centers.

Short-Term Outlook

Over the next 2–4 weeks, the black gram market is expected to trade sideways to slightly softer. The key swing factors will be the rate and consistency of summer-crop arrivals and any renewed adjustment in Burma offer levels.

So long as imports remain competitive and domestic arrivals maintain or improve in quality, upward price momentum is likely to be capped. A meaningful recovery would require either a disruption in Burma shipments, a sharp weakening of the local currency versus the dollar, or a noticeable revival in dal consumption and mill stocking behavior.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Traders: Maintain a cautious, demand-linked import program; current CIF levels remain workable, but avoid over-committing ahead of peak summer-crop arrivals.
• Stockists: Consider lightening high-priced inventory on minor rallies; carry costs and import competition argue against aggressive long exposure in the near term.
• Dal mills: Continue hand-to-mouth coverage, but evaluate slightly longer coverage tenors if Burma offers weaken further or if signs of government procurement emerge.
• European buyers: Expect steady Burma shipments through June and use any dips in Indian sentiment to secure forward coverage rather than waiting for a sharp correction.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR)

• Chennai FAQ/SQ: Mildly softer to stable; bias lower as arrivals and imports stay active.
• Delhi / Mumbai: Largely stable with a soft bias, tracking coastal markets and import parity.
• Kolkata & polished urad (Guntur/Vijayawada): Mostly steady; slight downside risk if broader national sentiment weakens further.