Sesame Market Holds Range as China Stocks Cap Upside, Brazil Adds Risk

The global sesame market is trading in a narrow band, with high destination stocks in China and weak demand keeping prices capped, while tightening supply in Brazil and structurally high costs in Sudan are preventing a deeper correction. Overall sentiment is cautious. Origin prices remain historically elevated versus muted destination values, particularly in China where port inventories above 320,000 MT are discouraging fresh buying. India’s summer crop arrivals are ramping up and Pakistan still holds substantial old-crop stocks, adding to nearby supply comfort. At the same time, a likely 30–45% production drop in Brazil and reduced competitiveness from Sudan suggest downside is limited and volatility could spike quickly if China or other key buyers return to the market.

Prices & Spreads

Destination markets, led by China, remain under pressure despite relatively firm offers at origin. High Chinese port inventories above 320,000 MT and value-sensitive demand are forcing sellers to edge closer to destination ideas, particularly for standard white and natural grades.

In India, domestic quotes for white hulling-quality sesame are reported around $1.41–1.58/kg, while premium black Z Black fetches $2.16–2.40/kg. Local red and black sesame in Tamil Nadu and Erode trade between $1.11–2.11/kg. Using a working rate of ₹96 = $1 and €0.92 ≈ $1, this implies indicative ex-origin levels of roughly €1.30–1.46/kg for mainstream white hulling-quality and €1.99–2.23/kg for premium black.

India’s rupee appreciated modestly from ₹96.350/USD on 18 May to ₹95.235/USD on 26 May, but remains about 5.85% weaker year-to-date. This keeps export realizations in local currency reasonably attractive, supporting farmer and trader price ideas even as global demand softens.

Supply & Demand Balance

China: The key feature is heavy port stocks above 320,000 MT, which are suppressing import demand and capping global prices. Buyers are in no rush to cover, as comfortable nearby availability at destination reduces urgency and shifts bargaining power towards importers.

India: Summer sesame arrivals are building across Maharashtra, Telangana, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Gujarat markets alone are handling around 55,000–60,000 bags of 40 kg per day, reinforcing a near-term supply surplus. This is consistent with the broader view that India can service prompt export demand without major price escalation.

Tanzania: The 2026/27 marketing season, which opened on 8 May, has seen 13,890 MT traded via TMX so far. The 25 May auction cleared 621 MT at 2,230–2,360 TZS/kg (roughly €0.82–0.86/kg at auction equivalent before levies, cleaning and logistics), pointing to competitive FOB potential once full export costs are added.

Brazil: Production is forecast to drop by 30–45% due to weaker forward contracting, irregular weather and competition from alternative crops. A stronger Brazilian real against the US dollar is eroding export competitiveness and discouraging farmer selling. This combination is expected to keep Brazil’s market firm and could tighten global supply in Q3–Q4 if demand revives.

Pakistan & Sudan: Pakistan has already exported about 178,538 MT between August 2025 and March 2026 and still holds 45,000–50,000 MT of old-crop stock. Sudan exported nearly 289,000 MT in 2025 but shipments to China have collapsed by more than 90% since 2018, as high production costs, crop disease, heavy taxation and civil unrest make Sudanese sesame (~$1,450/MT, around €1,334/MT) less competitive than other origins.

Trade Flows & Fundamentals

India seed exports: Jan–Mar 2026 sesame seed exports from India fell sharply to 57,596 MT, down 22% year-on-year. Export values declined 32%, with average export prices easing 13% to $1,580/MT, approximately €1,454/MT. The main destinations were Russia, Vietnam, China, the USA, Taiwan, Indonesia, Iraq, Israel, Egypt and Mexico, with Russia the largest single buyer.

This contraction confirms that value resistance at destination is feeding back into lower volumes and softer average prices, even while origin offers remain structurally higher than pre-2024 levels. It also underscores growing buyer diversification away from traditional African suppliers toward India and other Asian origins when price-competitive.

India sesame oil exports: In contrast, sesame oil exports from India rose in Jan–Mar 2026 to 2,528 MT, up 11% year-on-year. Export value increased 15%, with average prices up 4% to $3,176/MT (about €2,922/MT). The USA, Mexico and UAE led demand, and March saw particularly strong growth with volumes up 34% and export value up 49%, indicating that some value addition is shifting from seeds to oil where margins allow.

Tanzania auctions: TMX auction prices in late May, at roughly €0.82–0.86/kg equivalent before costs, suggest room for margin on cleaned, graded, exported product, but the global ceiling imposed by Chinese destination prices limits upside. Any additional quality premiums and logistics surcharges will need to be tightly managed to remain competitive against Indian and Egyptian offers.

Weather & Macro Context

Key sesame growing regions in India—including Gujarat, Telangana and Tamil Nadu—are currently under intense pre-monsoon heat, with heatwave conditions reported across northwest and central India and hot, humid weather in Saurashtra, Kutch, Tamil Nadu and coastal regions through late May. This may stress late-sown summer crops but is broadly consistent with typical seasonal patterns ahead of monsoon onset.

Medium-range forecasts for Kutch in Gujarat indicate predominantly sunny and hot conditions into early June, with no major rainfall events flagged at this stage. For East Africa, regional climate bulletins highlight localized dryness and below-average rainfall in parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan, but no immediate, generalized sesame supply threat has been flagged for Tanzania or Sudan in the coming 1–2 weeks.

Macro logistics and freight markets remain relatively tight but functional. Container demand from China is firm across several sectors, though recent disruptions in energy markets and Middle East shipping routes have had a more pronounced impact on crude than on agri-bulk. For sesame, freight is a cost consideration but not the primary short-term price driver versus stocks and crop expectations.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

The near-term bias for sesame is for range-bound to mildly weaker prices, anchored by high Chinese inventories and strong Indian summer arrivals. However, Brazil’s expected crop shortfall and Sudan’s elevated cost base act as a floor, raising the risk of a faster upside correction if Chinese demand returns or weather disrupts upcoming harvests.

Currency remains an important secondary driver. The modest appreciation of the Indian rupee in late May trims export competitiveness at the margin but does not yet materially change global arbitrage. In contrast, the firmer Brazilian real is materially restricting Brazilian offers and could shift incremental demand back towards India, Pakistan, Tanzania and Egypt as the season progresses.

Trading Outlook

• Importers (EU, MENA, East Asia): Consider scaling coverage on nearby and Q3 needs while prices remain depressed by China’s heavy stocks, but avoid overbuying into a still-comfortable supply environment.
• Exporters in India & Pakistan: Focus on competitive pricing and quality differentiation for white hulling and premium black grades; with Brazilian supply tightening, prioritize longer-term relationships over short-term price maximization.
• Buyers exposed to Brazil and Sudan: Hedge a portion of 2H 2026 requirements via alternative origins (India, Tanzania, Egypt) to mitigate production and political risk, even if current differentials are modest.
• Industrial users (oil crushers, tahini, snack makers): Where possible, lengthen coverage slightly into Q4 to lock in current value, but preserve some flexibility in case Chinese demand remains soft for longer.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• India (FOB New Delhi, white hulled & natural): Sideways to slightly soft in EUR terms, as local arrivals stay strong and the rupee remains relatively stable.
• Africa (Tanzania, Sudan, Egypt FOB): Mostly steady, with Sudan structurally firm and Tanzania/Egypt pricing constrained by global ceilings set by Chinese destination values.
• Europe (FCA/EXW hubs such as Germany): Stable to marginally softer as buyers continue hand-to-mouth purchasing and spot availability from multiple origins remains good.