Lentils and Green Gram Markets: Sideways Now, Softening Ahead

Indian green gram and international lentil markets are broadly stable, with upside capped by heavy government stocks in India and softer FOB values in Canada. Near‑term direction is mildly bearish as fresh summer/kharif arrivals build and North American seeding progresses under seasonally improving weather. The pulse complex currently trades without strong bullish catalysts. In India, green gram (moong) is supported by steady dal mill demand and a modestly smaller summer area, but the sizeable central pool and rising kharif arrivals are preventing any sustained rally. Internationally, Canadian green and red lentils have eased slightly over May, while Chinese small green lentils are inching higher from low levels. For European ingredient buyers, this translates into a window of generally stable pricing with a slight downward bias into June – especially for India‑linked green gram products.

Prices & Short-Term Trend

Indian green gram spot markets were broadly flat on 28 May, with only isolated firmness where dal mill buying was active. Across major centres, prices remain well below the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP), confirming that the domestic market is in a subdued phase rather than transitioning into a bull run.

Indicative Indian wholesale values (converted to EUR, approx. 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR):

• Indore bold green gram: ~€83–€85 per 100 kg
• Jaipur chamki: ~€79 per 100 kg
• Delhi Rajasthan-line: ~€75–€82 per 100 kg
• Akola chamki: ~€90 per 100 kg
• Hisar: ~€68–€71 per 100 kg
• MSP benchmark: ~€94 per 100 kg (well above traded levels)

FOB lentil indications in other origins (already in EUR/tonne equivalents):

Overall, Indian green gram is tracking sideways, while Canadian lentil FOBs have softened modestly in May and Chinese small greens are recovering from previously lower levels.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The key structural weight on the Indian green gram market is the large central pool of government stocks, the biggest among all pulses. State agencies accumulated sizeable volumes in earlier procurement cycles, and this surplus continues to cap any sharp upside despite firmer MSP support and sporadic mandi strength. Dal processing mills – currently the dominant buyers – are purchasing hand-to-mouth, fully aware that summer kharif arrivals have begun in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat and will gather pace into late May and June.

Summer green gram sowing for the current season stands at 23.01 lakh hectares, only slightly below last year’s 23.49 lakh hectares. This implies a marginally smaller incoming crop, but not enough of a cut to generate scarcity. Recent market commentary confirms that moong acreage this summer is modestly below multi-year averages and that MSP backing is helping hold values above distress levels, yet the supply picture remains comfortable overall.

On the supportive side, reduced sowing does temper the scale of the upcoming supply wave, and selling by private stockists at current prices is relatively restrained, giving the market a floor. Internationally, Statistics Canada indicates a decline in planned lentil area for 2026 compared with 2025, especially in Alberta, which points to a slightly tighter medium-term balance if yields normalise rather than surge.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental backdrop for Indian green gram over the next one to two months is defined by three forces: (1) government stock overhang; (2) a slightly smaller but still ample summer crop; and (3) policy and weather risks around the 2026 southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department currently projects a below-normal monsoon at about 92% of the long-period average, and the government is preparing contingency plans in case El Niño conditions tighten moisture availability during the kharif season.

For pulses like green gram, a weaker monsoon would primarily affect the next kharif cycle rather than the imminent summer harvest, but it could lend medium-term support if acreage or yields suffer. For now, there is no immediate weather-driven shortage: summer sowing has broadly progressed, and harvest volumes are expected to build through June. In Canada, recent provincial crop reports point to generally adequate soil moisture across much of Saskatchewan, with localised differences but no systemic lentil stress yet, while June climatology suggests gradually rising rainfall and growing degree days that are broadly favourable for lentil establishment.

Market Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

For Indian green gram, the base case over the next two to four weeks is one of stability with a slight downward bias as fresh summer/kharif supplies from Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat increase, adding to already large state stocks. A pre‑monsoon price rally looks unlikely unless an unexpected weather shock or policy shift curtails arrivals or accelerates government offloading at higher floors.

For international lentils, the near-term picture is moderately soft but not distressed. Canadian FOB prices have already corrected lower in May, and buyers are cautious amid comfortable old-crop inventories and good early-season weather. Chinese small green lentils are edging higher, but the move so far resembles a technical recovery rather than the start of a sustained bull market.

Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• EU buyers of Indian green gram products: Consider a staggered buying approach over June, as increased summer arrivals and persistent government stocks are likely to generate pockets of softer offers. Avoid front-loading purchases on small, localised price rallies.
• Importers of Canadian green lentils (Eston/Laird): Use the current soft FOB environment to cover short- to medium-term needs, but keep some volume unpriced to retain flexibility in case weather or acreage concerns firm the market later in the season.
• Buyers of Chinese small green lentils: Recent price upticks from low bases suggest the bottom may be in, but overall global fundamentals remain comfortable. Treat further strength primarily as an opportunity to diversify origins rather than chase a breakout.
• Stockists and traders: With MSP well above spot and government inventories heavy, aggressive long positioning in Indian green gram appears premature. Focus instead on basis opportunities and quality spreads as summer crops arrive.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR Terms)

• Indian green gram (wholesale, key centres): Mostly stable in EUR terms, with a mild downside skew (−0.5% to −1.5%) as fresh arrivals increase and buyers stay cautious.
• Canadian green lentils FOB (Eston/Laird): Sideways to slightly weaker (−0.5% to 0%) as export demand remains measured and currency moves dominate short-term changes.
• Chinese small green lentils FOB Beijing: Stable to marginally firmer (0% to +1%) after recent small gains, but still within a broader rangebound pattern.