Chinese Pine Nuts Flat in Dalian as Tight Global Supply Meets Cautious Demand

Chinese FOB pine nut prices in Dalian are holding broadly steady, with only marginal softening versus early May and no clear breakout on either side. Buyers remain cautious, while structurally tight 2025/26 Asian supply and firm export interest prevent any meaningful downside. China continues to anchor the global pine nut trade, but the current market in Dalian is characterized more by consolidation than trend. Tight regional crop estimates for 2025/26 and reduced Asian pine nut output versus last season limit seller willingness to discount, even as buyers watch macro uncertainty and freight costs. Nearby weather in Liaoning is seasonally warm and benign, implying no immediate crop stress. For now, the balance of risks still tilts slightly upward for new-season values, but short‑term FOB indications are expected to stay in a narrow range.

Prices & Recent Moves

Recent Dalian FOB indications for Chinese pine nuts (non-organic, origin CN) translate roughly to the mid‑teens EUR/kg, with the higher‑count grade (950) carrying a modest premium over 1200 count. The latest data signal a very flat week‑on‑week pattern and only a slight easing compared with early May, confirming a sideways consolidation after the gradual firmness seen into March and April.

Converted prices reflect a narrow grade spread and limited downside follow‑through despite some buyer resistance at recent highs. This is consistent with reports that China remains the price‑setting origin in a structurally tight global market.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Global pine nut fundamentals into the 2025/26 season are clearly tighter than a year earlier. Industry statistics indicate that China’s pine nut supply is expected to more than halve year‑on‑year, from about 131,500 tonnes total supply in 2024/25 to near 60,000 tonnes in 2025/26, with ending stocks projected to drop sharply. Other Asian origins such as Russia (Siberia) and Mongolia are also forecast to harvest smaller crops, reinforcing the tight backdrop.

At the same time, Russian exporters have significantly increased pine nut shipments to China, with 2025 exports valued around USD 34.6 million, the highest in two years, supporting kernel availability but not fully offsetting the smaller Chinese crop. Demand in Europe and North America remains underpinned by the high‑value positioning of pine nuts within healthy and Mediterranean diets, even if overall tree‑nut consumption growth has moderated with inflation.

Fundamentals & Trade Context

Recent analysis of the pine nut market highlights that Asia–Pacific, led by China, remains the dominant production and export hub, with a large share of kernels destined for Europe and North America. With 2025/26 world pine nut supply projected to fall from about 200,000 tonnes to roughly 122,700 tonnes and global ending stocks to decline correspondingly, the market enters this campaign with limited buffer against weather or logistics shocks.

Broader trade tensions between China and the EU, and discussions of wider quotas or tariffs on Chinese imports, are increasing uncertainty for Chinese agri‑food exporters in general. While no pine‑nut‑specific measures have been announced in the last few days, the political backdrop could affect freight flows, financing conditions and risk premiums, particularly for shipments into Europe. Importers may respond by staggering purchases and diversifying origins where possible, which tends to keep nearby Dalian offers supported.

Weather & Crop Outlook – China (CN)

Short‑term weather in Dalian and the broader Liaoning coastal area is seasonally warm to hot, with a mix of sun and clouds and only isolated showers forecast over the next three days. Daytime highs are expected mostly in the mid‑20s to low‑30s °C, and no severe storms or cold spells are indicated.

For existing pine stands, these conditions are largely neutral to slightly positive in late May–early June, supporting cone and kernel development without acute heat or drought stress. Given already tight 2025/26 supply expectations, any later‑season weather shocks would have an outsized impact on prices, but there is no immediate weather‑driven bullish trigger in the Dalian region this week.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• For importers/users: Use current stability to secure partial coverage for Q3–Q4 at fixed prices, but avoid over‑committing given macro and policy uncertainty. Prioritize higher‑quality 950 grade while the grade spread remains narrow.
• For Chinese exporters: Maintain offer discipline; structurally tight Asian supply and low projected global stocks justify resisting aggressive discounts, especially for nearby shipments.
• For traders: Bias remains mildly bullish medium term. Consider buying dips or holding length in physical inventory rather than chasing further upside immediately.

Absent new policy headlines or logistics disruptions, Chinese pine nut prices in Dalian are expected to remain range‑bound over the coming three sessions, with the medium‑term balance of risks still skewed modestly to the upside due to constrained 2025/26 supply.