Hazelnut Kernels Ease Lower as New-Crop Weather Stays Benign

Hazelnut kernel prices from Georgia and Turkey are edging slightly lower in early June, with no acute weather threat in key Black Sea orchards to justify risk premiums. Buyers see a soft but stable market, with modest downside risk if current crop expectations are confirmed over the coming weeks. The market starts June with a gently bearish tone. Georgian-origin kernels delivered into Central Europe are drifting down by around EUR 0.05–0.10/kg compared with late May, while Turkish FOB values are also easing. Early June farmgate quotes from Turkey’s Black Sea coast point to subdued local demand and cautious buying ahead of clearer new-crop indications. At the same time, weather in the Georgian and Turkish hazelnut belts remains seasonally warm with only scattered showers, supporting good crop development for now. Overall, nearby supply looks comfortable, and buyers can afford to be patient on volume.

Prices

Indicative current kernel prices (converted to EUR) show a mild week-on-week decline on both Georgian FCA Central Europe and Turkish FOB Istanbul benchmarks. Georgian-origin natural kernels in Poland are quoted around EUR 9.90–11.00/kg FCA Warsaw, down roughly EUR 0.05–0.10 versus late May. Turkish natural kernels are indicated near EUR 8.00–8.35/kg FOB Istanbul for standard sizes, with roasted formats around EUR 6.40–7.20/kg, also slightly softer than previous updates.

Supply & Demand

Recent market commentary highlights that global hazelnut demand is being constrained by high confectionery price levels and competition from other nuts, leaving buyers reluctant to chase offers higher. Reports in late April already flagged lacklustre demand for Turkish kernels and a softer tone in export prices into Europe, a trend now reflected in early June lists. 

Medium-term fundamentals remain relatively tight due to earlier expectations of smaller Turkish crops and low stocks, but the immediate balance into summer 2026 looks more comfortable. International industry data still project only modest growth in world hazelnut output for 2025/26, with Turkey and the Caucasus dominating supply. 

Weather & Crop Outlook (Georgia & Black Sea)

For the next 3 days (June 3–5, 2026), key hazelnut regions in western Georgia and along Turkey’s central and eastern Black Sea coast are forecast to see warm early-summer conditions, with daytime highs mostly in the mid-20s °C and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. No widespread heavy rain, heatwaves or frost risks are indicated in short-term forecasts for these orchards, implying neutral-to-supportive conditions for nut fill.

Longer-term climate work suggests that, while the Black Sea hazelnut belt faces gradual warming and shifting rainfall patterns over coming decades, June precipitation is not expected to collapse and short-term yield risks in 2026 are more likely to come from localised storms than systemic weather shocks.  For now, weather does not justify any weather-risk premium on nearby kernels from Georgia or Turkey.

Market Drivers

• Soft near-term demand: Confectionery and nut spreads continue to face consumer resistance after prior price hikes, curbing aggressive kernel buying despite structurally tight fundamentals. 
• Currency & macro: High Turkish inflation and shifting support prices for other crops are shaping growers’ expectations, but recent moves in TRY/EUR have had limited immediate impact on export hazelnut lists. 
• Structural tightness vs. short-term comfort: Global production projections still point to constrained balance sheets through 2026, yet current spot availability from Turkey and Georgia is adequate, allowing buyers to secure nearby cover without paying for scarcity. 

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Use current mild price softness to top up Q3 coverage, focusing on standard sizes (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm) where discounts versus recent peaks are clearest. Avoid over-committing into 2027 until clearer evidence on Turkish and Georgian 2026 crops emerges.
• Sellers (growers, shellers in Georgia and Turkey): With weather supportive and demand sluggish, resist heavy discounting beyond current small reductions. Consider scaling sales over the next 4–6 weeks, especially if local cash demand strengthens as new-crop expectations firm up.
• Traders: The nearby market appears range-bound with a slight downside bias. Look for opportunities in origin spreads (Georgia FCA vs. Turkey FOB) and in premium sizes or roasted fractions, where recent price cuts may overshoot underlying fundamentals.

3-Day Regional Price View (EUR)

• Georgia → Central Europe (FCA Warsaw): Natural kernels from Georgia are expected to remain broadly stable to slightly easier over June 3–5, with typical trading ranges around EUR 9.90–11.00/kg depending on size, as buyers test the downside but liquidity stays thin.
• Turkey FOB Istanbul: Turkish natural kernels are likely to trade in a soft sideways band near EUR 8.00–8.40/kg, with limited room for recovery unless fresh demand appears or weather turns less favourable.
• Delivered EU (CIF/DAP, implied): Taking into account freight and handling, mainstream European buyers should still see Turkish-origin kernels priced at a clear discount to Georgian offers, maintaining a moderate origin premium for Georgian supply.