Australia Almond Outlook 2025/26: Record Harvest, Export Surge Amid U.S.-China Tariff Shifts
Australia is forecast to achieve a record almond crop of 175,000 MT in MY 2025/26, with exports projected to reach an all-time high of 143,000 MT. Rising global demand, favourable growing conditions, and tariff advantages in China support continued expansion, despite input cost pressures and pollination challenges.
📊 1. Key Figures (Shelled Basis)
| Indicator | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planted area (ha) | 64,200 | 66,500 | 69,000 |
| Production (MT) | 165,000 | 145,000 ↓ -12% | 175,000 ↑ +21% |
| Exports (MT) | 136,800 | 113,000 ↓ -17% | 143,000 ↑ +26.5% |
| Domestic consumption | 33,400 | 34,000 | 34,500 |
| Imports (MT) | 3,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 |
| Ending stocks (MT) | 15,300 | 15,800 | 15,800 |
🌱 2. Production Recovery & Regional Profile
- MY 2025/26 production forecast: 175,000 MT, rebounding from weather-hit 2024/25.
- Main growing regions (Figure 1, page 3):
- Sunraysia (Victoria): 56% of plantings.
- Riverina (New South Wales): 24%.
- Riverland (South Australia): 18%.
- Challenges in 2024/25:
- Excessive heat.
- Input cutbacks by growers due to a weak price outlook.
- Water access remains a limiting factor in Riverland/Sunraysia due to Barmah Choke restrictions on the Murray River (page 5).
🐝 3. Pollination & Variety Trends
- Australian orchards are heavily reliant on beehives for pollination.
- Detection of varroa mite in 2022 disrupted hive transport and triggered a shift toward self-pollinating varieties like:
- U.S.-bred: Independence, Shasta.
- Australian CRISPR-edited Nonpareil types expected by 2027.
- Industry interest is high due to cost savings and reduced irrigation complexity.
🌍 4. Export Outlook – China Leads, U.S. Faces Tariff Hit
- MY 2025/26 exports projected at 143,000 MT (new record).
- China = top market, now taking up to 50% of exports (Figure 7, page 12).
- U.S. almonds face a 45% import tariff into China post-June 2025.
- In contrast, Australian almonds enter China tariff-free under the FTA.
- Advantage reinforced by weak AUD (AU$1.55 = US$1) as of June 2025 (Figure 5, page 9).
- But: Australia unlikely to replace U.S. almonds significantly due to scale limits and counter-seasonal supply.
💰 5. Domestic Market & Consumption
- Domestic demand is projected to reach 34,500 MT in 2025/26.
- Growth is modest, tied to population trends and health-focused marketing campaigns, including endorsements from high-profile athletes.
- Stock levels remain stable (~10% of production), ensuring smooth supply during seasonal transition.
📦 6. Imports & Processing
- Almond imports are expected at 2,500 MT in 2025/26, mainly from Vietnam, the U.S., and Spain.
- First-ever imports from China recorded in 2023/24.
- Processors:
- Almondco (cooperative model).
- Select Harvest and Olam (corporate, vertically integrated).
- All have recently expanded capacity.
📈 7. Long-Term Outlook
- Horticulture Innovation Australia projects almond output could reach 210,000 MT by 2030 (+27%).
- Factors supporting growth:
- Declining U.S. output growth (due to water issues).
- Contracting the wine industry, freeing land and water.
- Rising demand from China, India, and Vietnam.
- Expansion may be tempered by:
- Tree replanting cycles (ageing trees).
- High input costs.
- Capital constraints after difficult seasons.
🧭 Conclusion
Australia’s almond sector is on track for a record-breaking year in 2025/26, driven by production rebound, supportive export dynamics, and strategic varietal innovations. While trade tensions favour Australian growers in China, the country’s limited scale, climate volatility, and pollination infrastructure will require continued investment to sustain long-term growth.
Source: USDA
