Barley market steady as Australian feed barley curves flatten

Barley markets are currently steady, with Australian feed barley futures on the Sydney exchange showing a flat forward curve and no trading activity, while Ukrainian physical prices remain rangebound but slightly firmer in some segments. Feed demand is underpinned by the tightness and risk premium in the global corn market, yet spot barley is not (yet) reacting with sharp price spikes.

Barley prices thus sit in a waiting pattern between supportive global feed-grain fundamentals and a still well-supplied physical market. The war situation in the Persian Gulf, higher crude oil prices and expensive nitrogen fertiliser are channeling risk into corn and bioethanol, indirectly supporting feed grains, including barley. In Ukraine, barley offers for feed use in Odesa and Kyiv show only modest movements over recent weeks, suggesting buyers are cautious but present. Overall, the market tone is cautiously firm, with upside risk should weather or energy markets tighten further.

📈 Prices & Curve Structure

Australian feed barley (SFE) contracts on 19 March 2026 traded nominally unchanged, with no volume across all listed maturities:

• Mar‑26: 307.50 AUD/t (≈ 186 EUR/t)
• May‑26: 312.50 AUD/t (≈ 189 EUR/t)
• Jul‑26 / Sep‑26 / Nov‑26: 316.00 AUD/t (≈ 192 EUR/t)
• Jan‑27: 315.00 AUD/t (≈ 191 EUR/t)
• Jan‑28 & Jan‑29: 333.00 AUD/t (≈ 202 EUR/t)

The curve is almost flat from mid‑2026 into early 2027, with a noticeable but moderate carry into 2028/29. Zero traded volume highlights a lack of fresh directional conviction and limited hedging interest at current levels.

Market	Specification	Location / Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Latest price (EUR/t)
Barley seeds	Cattle feed	Odesa, UA, FOB	0.18	180
Barley seeds	Feed grade, 14% moisture, 98% purity	Odesa, UA, FCA	0.25	250
Barley seeds	Feed grade, 14% moisture, 98% purity	Kyiv, UA, FCA	0.23	230

Ukrainian feed barley prices in Odesa and Kyiv have been broadly stable since late February, with only a slight uptick in FCA Odesa feed-grade values. This suggests a balanced local market where higher logistics and risk costs are largely offset by still adequate nearby availability.

🌍 Feed-Grain Context & Demand

The wider feed-grain complex is currently driven by corn. The war in the Persian Gulf is lifting crude oil prices, increasing incentives for bioethanol and reinforcing expectations of robust corn industrial demand. At the same time, high nitrogen fertiliser prices may lead to reduced corn area in some regions, reinforcing concerns about medium‑term feed-grain availability.

In Germany, corn prices have recently pushed to their highest level of the season, with March deliveries up 10 EUR/t from early March. This strength in a key EU market sets a higher floor for substitute feed grains such as barley, even if barley itself has not yet followed corn one‑for‑one.

📊 Global Fundamentals & Barley Implications

According to the latest outlook, global corn production in 2026/27 is expected to fall by 17 million tonnes to 1.303 billion tonnes, while consumption is set to rise by 13 million tonnes to 1.315 billion tonnes. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 12 million tonnes to 294 million tonnes, continuing the trend of gradual tightening.

For 2025/26, global corn production has been revised up by 7 million tonnes to 1.32 billion tonnes, with consumption up 4 million tonnes to 1.302 billion tonnes and ending stocks increased by 1 million tonnes to 306 million tonnes, still 17 million tonnes higher than a year earlier. This means current-season supplies are comfortable, but the forward balance is tightening.

US weekly export sales of old-crop corn recently reached 1.172 million tonnes, at the upper end of expectations but down 13% from the prior week and 12% below last year’s level. New-crop sales remain minimal. For barley, this combination of still‑ample near‑term corn supplies and a tighter forward outlook implies limited immediate upside, but growing support into 2026/27 as feed users look to diversify and secure alternatives.

🌦 Weather & Planting Outlook (Brief)

With the market’s focus on corn area decisions under high fertiliser costs, barley could benefit from relative input advantages in some regions. If farmers shift marginal hectares away from high‑nitrogen crops towards barley, global barley supply might hold up better than corn over the medium term.

At the same time, any weather‑induced downgrades in corn yield prospects in key producers would quickly spill over into higher demand and pricing power for feed barley. For now, however, the absence of acute global weather stress helps explain the flat Australian futures curve and measured moves in Ukrainian physical values.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Feed buyers (EU & MENA): Use current stability in Ukrainian FOB/FCA barley (180–250 EUR/t) and flat Australian futures as an opportunity to cover a portion of Q3–Q4 2026 needs. Leave some volume open to benefit from any short‑term corrections if corn pressure eases.
• Producers (Australia, Black Sea): With SFE values around 186–192 EUR/t for 2026 and a small carry into 2028/29, consider layered forward hedging on price rallies driven by corn or energy markets, while avoiding full coverage given the still‑comfortable 2025/26 feed‑grain stocks.
• Traders: Monitor the corn–barley price spread: firmer corn in Germany and potential area cuts support a gradual narrowing. Relative-value strategies long barley vs. corn may be attractive into 2026/27 if crude oil and fertiliser prices stay elevated.

📉 Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day)

• SFE feed barley (Australia): Sideways in EUR terms; flat curve and zero volume argue for a 3‑day consolidation around 186–192 EUR/t nearby.
• Ukraine FOB Odesa (feed barley): Stable to slightly firm near 180 EUR/t as export demand remains steady and logistics risks are already priced in.
• Ukraine FCA domestic (Odesa/Kyiv): Stable in the 230–250 EUR/t range, with limited scope for immediate downside given stronger competing corn values in Europe.