Barley market steady as new-crop pressure builds from Black Sea and EU

Prices for feed barley remain broadly stable, with SFE contracts flat and only a shallow forward carry, while expectations of a strong 2026/27 harvest in the Black Sea and North Africa are capping upside. Ukrainian export offers are slightly softer for feed-grade barley, signalling comfortable nearby availability despite geopolitical noise.

Barley is trading more in the slipstream of wheat and macro drivers than on its own fundamentals right now. The lack of fresh escalation in the Iran–US conflict, a stronger euro and weaker oil prices have collectively dampened risk appetite across grains. At the same time, very good winter-crop conditions in Russia and the prospect of high yields in North Africa suggest ample new-crop feed grain supply. This combination leaves barley markets range-bound in the short term, with moderate downside risk into the new-crop arrival unless weather in key regions deteriorates.

📈 Prices & Spreads

The SFE feed barley curve is flat to mildly carrying, with no trading activity on 14 April 2026 but clear structure along the forward strip. Nearby May 2026 settled at AUD 315/t, with Jul–Nov 2026 at AUD 320/t and Jan–Mar 2027 rising modestly to AUD 326.5–334/t. Further out, Jan 2028 and Jan 2029 are indicated at AUD 350/t, suggesting limited long‑term risk premium.

Converted to EUR (≈1 EUR = 1.65 AUD), nearby SFE levels translate to roughly 191–194 EUR/t for May–Nov 2026 and just above 200 EUR/t for early 2027. The small carry along the curve reflects comfortable global feed grain prospects rather than acute tightness in barley itself.

Contract	Settlement (AUD/t)	Approx. EUR/t
May 2026	315	≈191
Jul 2026	320	≈194
Jan 2027	326.5	≈198
Mar 2027	334	≈202
Jan 2028 / Jan 2029	350	≈212

In physical Black Sea markets, Ukrainian feed barley offers for April 2026 shipment are broadly steady to slightly softer. Recent indications around 0.19–0.24 EUR/kg (190–240 EUR/t) for feed-grade barley from Odesa and Kyiv, with FCA Kyiv at about 230 EUR/t and FCA/FOB Odesa in a 190–250 EUR/t band, point to a well-supplied regional balance and competitive export parity.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Global feed grain sentiment is dominated by expectations for a strong new harvest. Russian winter crops are reported in very good shape, with around 97% of winter cereals rated good or satisfactory, clearly above last year’s level. This underpins expectations of another large Black Sea feed grain surplus for 2026/27, weighing on barley export values through competition from wheat and other feed grains.

North African countries are already starting their harvest, where parts of the region are expected to achieve near‑record yields. This reduces their short‑term import requirements and could lower overall barley and wheat imports in 2026/27. For barley exporters, this means a more competitive environment into traditional North African demand hubs, especially over the next marketing year.

In the US, dryness in parts of Texas and Kansas is stressing Hard Red Winter wheat, while Soft Red Winter zones are seeing further rains. While barley is less directly impacted, these contrasting conditions reinforce the idea of regionally uneven feed grain availability. However, on balance, the global picture remains more than adequately supplied, limiting risk premiums for barley.

📊 Fundamentals & Correlations

Barley prices continue to trade in close correlation with wheat and, indirectly, with currency and energy markets. A notably stronger euro against the US dollar has recently pressured Euronext wheat and, by extension, European barley export competitiveness. At the same time, weaker crude oil prices have dampened biofuel-related grain demand sentiment, adding another mildly bearish layer to the broader cereals complex.

EU soft wheat exports are progressing but not spectacular, with cumulative shipments in 2025/26 only moderately above last year despite aggressive Black Sea competition. Romania, France and Poland dominate EU exports, shaping the feed and milling wheat flows that set the price floor and ceiling for feed barley in many destination markets. Against this background, barley is priced as a flexible component in feed rations rather than a scarcity commodity.

Ukrainian offers around 190–240 EUR/t for feed barley, only slightly adjusted in recent weeks, confirm that nearby supply from the Black Sea remains readily available. With freight, currency and risk premia stable to softer, importers see little urgency to front‑load purchases, reinforcing the sideways tone.

⛅ Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

In the short term, weather remains a key watchpoint but not yet a bullish trigger. Russian winter-crop regions currently show favourable conditions with adequate moisture, consistent with official assessments of very high crop ratings. Unless a prolonged hot and dry spell emerges in late spring, yield potential there is likely to stay strong.

In North Africa, the harvest has already started in early areas, and expectations of high yields are largely weather‑confirmed. For the US Plains, continued dryness in parts of Texas and Kansas is a concern but is currently more critical for wheat than barley. Overall, weather risk premia for barley remain modest, though traders should monitor any shift towards extended dryness in major spring barley zones in the coming weeks.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers: Consider a staggered buying strategy, using current 190–230 EUR/t Black Sea values as a reference. With strong new‑crop prospects in Russia and North Africa, near‑term downside into harvest cannot be ruled out, so avoid over‑covering beyond essential needs.
• Producers: The SFE forward curve above 200 EUR/t equivalent into 2027–2028 offers an opportunity to lock in margins on a portion of expected production. Focus on incremental hedges rather than full coverage given residual weather and geopolitical risks.
• Traders: Maintain a slightly bearish to neutral bias, favouring short barley vs. wheat spreads where basis and logistics allow. Watch for any sudden shift in Russia/Black Sea export policy or severe weather that could tighten the balance unexpectedly.

📍 3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• SFE feed barley (May–Jul 2026): Expected to remain in a narrow range around 190–195 EUR/t equivalent; low volatility likely in the next three sessions.
• Black Sea FOB (UA feed barley): Sideways to slightly softer around 190–210 EUR/t, with buyers in no hurry and exporters competing for limited nearby demand.
• EU export parity (feed barley, ex‑port): Mildly pressured by strong euro and solid Russian supply; small downside risk versus current mid‑190s to low‑200s EUR/t range.