Beans steady to slightly softer as Brazil supply improves, UK heat adds weather premium

Brazilian and UK bean prices are broadly steady to slightly softer, with Brazil easing from earlier highs on better second-crop arrivals, while UK beans hold a modest weather risk premium as hot, dry days pass before rains early next week. Bean markets in both Brazil and the UK enter the final days of June with calmer price action after a volatile first half of 2026. In Brazil, FOB Brasília values for colored beans remain stable week-on-week but are under gentle downward pressure as second-crop supplies build and domestic demand cools slightly after sharp retail price spikes earlier in the year. In the UK, London FOB bean prices have inched lower over June even as East Anglia faces a short spell of hot, dry weather followed by showers, keeping yield risk contained for now. Liquidity is moderate, with buyers showing patience and focusing on quality rather than volume.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using ~0.93 EUR/USD and indicative FX for BRL and GBP; they are FOB export indications as of 26 June 2026.

External benchmarks confirm that Brazilian red bean export prices in June 2026 are down around 20% year-on-year, reflecting some normalization after extreme spikes, though they remain historically elevated. Exchange data for domestic carioca and black bean contracts also show that futures have eased from record highs earlier in the year as second-crop volumes arrive and consumers resist further price increases.

Supply & Demand

Brazil enters late June with a more comfortable near-term supply picture than at the start of 2026, when carry-out stocks were equivalent to only about 15 days of domestic consumption. The harvest of second-crop beans has progressed, and recent reports show spot prices for carioca and black beans softening in early June as new volumes hit key producing regions.

Nevertheless, underlying fundamentals remain tight compared to historical norms. Area under beans has trended lower over the past decades, and Brazil has become a more active exporter of pulses, including colored beans, which constrains domestic availability when international demand improves. Government minimum price policies for colored and black beans for the 2025/26 season also underpin farmer selling ideas, limiting downside on physical offers when spot demand slows.

In the UK, the physical market for fava and other field beans is in a seasonally quiet phase. Old-crop stocks are being drawn down ahead of the 2026 harvest, with some pressure from competition with other protein sources and from imported pulses. Planting for winter and spring beans was largely completed earlier in the season, and no major acreage shocks have been reported for 2026.

Weather & Crop Outlook (BR, GB)

In central Brazil (Brasília and surrounding Goiás), the 7‑day forecast points to typical dry-season conditions: mostly dry, mild to warm days with only isolated light showers in parts of Goiás. For beans, this is broadly supportive of ongoing second-crop harvest and post-harvest operations, with low risk of quality losses from excess moisture.

In the UK’s main bean belt (East Anglia), forecasts show a brief hot spell with daytime highs around 29–33°C through 27 June, followed by a cooling trend and increased cloudiness and some rain from 29–30 June. This pattern adds a short-lived heat stress concern but is largely mitigated by the expected showers early next week, keeping overall yield risk moderate rather than extreme at this stage.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Brazilian prices off peaks but supported by tight stocks: After record or near-record domestic prices for carioca beans in early 2026, spot values have corrected as harvest progresses, but low beginning stocks and reduced bean area keep structural support under FOB offers.
• Demand normalization: Brazilian buyers have turned more cautious after sharp retail inflation in beans, and Cepea/CNA data show that weaker demand in late June has contributed to softer spot prices, especially for black beans.
• Policy floor: Updated minimum prices for colored and black beans under Brazil’s PGPM program act as a de facto floor, limiting the willingness of producers to discount significantly below those reference levels, especially for higher-quality lots.
• UK weather risk premium contained: The short burst of hot, dry weather in East Anglia is not yet severe or prolonged enough to threaten the upcoming 2026 bean crop, but it justifies a modest risk premium versus earlier in the spring, particularly if follow-up rains underperform.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• Brazil (FOB Brasília): With stable week-on-week prices and a still-tight overall balance sheet, near-term downside appears limited. Importers needing coverage for Q3 shipment may consider layering in volumes on any additional dips, while sellers can hold slightly above current levels, using minimum price policy as support.
• UK (FOB London): Slightly softer values for fava and broad beans suggest a buyer-friendly window before harvest weather becomes a larger driver. Short-covering for feed or food programs into early 2027 can be considered on current offers, but large long positions are not yet justified given adequate crop conditions.
• Quality spreads: Premiums for high-quality Brazilian colored beans are likely to remain firm due to limited availability, even if average-grade material faces further mild pressure. Buyers with strict specs should secure supply early.

3‑day directional outlook (27–29 June 2026):

• Brazil, FOB Brasília beans (kidney, alubia): Stable to slightly softer (−0.5% to −1%) as second-crop supply continues to arrive and domestic demand stays cautious.
• UK, FOB London beans (white kidney, fava, broad): Broadly stable (flat to −0.5%), with mild pressure from slow nearby demand, partly offset by a small weather risk premium ahead of expected showers in East Anglia.