Black Gram Market: Festive Demand Meets Growing Supply Pressure
Black gram prices soften as new kharif arrivals and Brazilian imports build, while festive demand provides a floor. Read the concise price and trading outlook.
Prices
Myanmar FAQ urad for September–October shipment is quoted around $905/t CNF, while SQ quality is near $985/t CNF, reflecting still-firm import parity on the back of active mill demand.
Domestically, Chennai FAQ is indicated near $91.01–91.54 per quintal (about €83–84/qtl at ~€0.91/$), with SQ at $99.48–100.01 (≈€90–91/qtl). Delhi FAQ trades around $94.72–94.99 (≈€86–87/qtl), and SQ at $102.39–102.66 (≈€93–94/qtl), marking a mild softening as stockists book profits and more kharif supplies reach markets.
Official data show the all-India average wholesale price of urad dal near ₹11,327/qtl as of 8 September 2026, equivalent to roughly €124/qtl at prevailing FX, confirming that processed dal prices remain significantly above raw urad in producing hubs and continue to signal healthy downstream demand.
Supply & Demand
New kharif arrivals are gradually increasing across Indian mandis. Fresh material has been reported in Bijapur (around 200 bags), as well as Bundi, Neemuch and Kekri, with some lots still carrying higher moisture—typical of early cutting. This is adding to available physical supply even as mills continue to prefer consistent imported quality for blending.
Additional Brazilian cargoes are scheduled to reach Indian ports in October, which should further augment imported availability and cap any aggressive rally in domestic prices once they land. At the same time, festival demand in the coming weeks is expected to keep off-take firm, preventing a sharp downside correction despite the heavier pipeline.
On the policy side, the Government of India has fixed the MSP for kharif urad at ₹8,200/qtl for the 2026–27 marketing season, an 89% rise over 2014–15, signalling continued encouragement for pulse acreage and a willingness to support farm incomes.
Fundamentals & Weather
Field-level reports point to higher kharif acreage in urad, which, combined with growing domestic arrivals and scheduled Brazilian imports, suggests a more comfortable supply scenario into late Q3 and early Q4. While early arrivals show moisture issues, quality should improve as harvesting progresses and weather turns drier in key belts.
Recent agri-weather updates indicate localized heavy rainfall episodes mainly over parts of East India, while much of central pulse-growing regions transition toward more harvest-friendly conditions over the next few days. This pattern should support ongoing harvest and transport, reinforcing the view of a steady build-up in physical stocks.
At the same time, pulses bodies highlight that imports into India have tightened relative to earlier expectations and that weather variability in some belts keeps yield risks alive, implying that any sharp price dips could quickly revive demand and restocking interest.
Market Outlook & Trading View
Looking ahead through October, the black gram market is likely to trade in a broad range rather than trend strongly in one direction. Festive consumption and firm dal prices should provide a floor, while expanding kharif arrivals and Brazilian cargoes limit sustained upside.
Volatility may increase around the arrival of large import consignments or any renewed weather disruptions in late-harvest areas. However, current fundamentals argue more for two-way trade—sell on rallies and buy on dips—than for an extended bull move, barring a major supply shock.
- For mills and importers: Use current firmness in CNF offers to hedge a portion of Q4 needs but avoid over-commitment ahead of October Brazilian arrivals, which could improve basis and landed parity.
- For domestic stockists: Maintain only moderate long exposure; consider scaling out on spikes driven by festive demand, with a plan to re-enter on any weather- or logistics-led dips.
- For large buyers (feed/food brands): Stagger procurement, locking in a share of requirements now while keeping flexibility for potential post-arrival softness in late October–November.
3-Day Directional Price Indication (Key Indian Hubs)
- Chennai urad (raw, ex-mandi, EUR terms): Slightly softer to sideways as more new-crop arrivals meet steady demand.
- Delhi urad (raw, ex-mandi, EUR terms): Sideways with mild downward bias; profit-taking and higher arrivals overshadow festive stocking.
- Imported Myanmar CNF (EUR terms): Largely steady; any near-term dip likely limited until Brazilian volumes physically start to weigh on Indian import demand.