Black Gram Market Firms on Import Strength, But Supply Clouds Loom
Black gram prices are supported by stronger import values and festive demand, but weak monsoon, crop-quality risks and incoming supplies cap upside.
Prices
Imported urad (black gram) has strengthened into early September, with Myanmar FAQ for September–October shipment rising to about $905/t CNF and SQ urad to around $985/t CNF as mills in India stepped up purchases on quality concerns for the new crop. At the same time, African-origin arhar values have also moved higher, signalling a generally firmer pulse complex led by supply risk rather than outright shortage.
Recent trade commentary confirms that across the broader beans and pulses basket, urad is under pressure from looming supply, while moong and chana are better supported by tight fundamentals and festival buying, and arhar is holding a firmer tone on tighter availability and higher import parity. This divergence is visible in the relative strength of arhar CNF values versus urad, even as both have nudged up in recent days.
Supply & Demand
On the import side, Myanmar-origin urad remains the key benchmark, with FAQ and SQ offers edging higher on active Indian buying and elevated freight and finance costs. Additional African arhar parcels (Gajri around $765/t CNF, white arhar near $780/t, Matwara close to $770/t CNF) underscore that replacement costs for pigeon pea remain high and continue to underpin the complex.
Brazilian urad booked in August is expected to reach Indian ports from October onwards, adding to supply. At the same time, domestic urad arrivals should pick up from late September, but persistent rainfall in major producing states such as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh has raised concerns over yield and grain quality. This aligns with broader assessments that India’s weak and uneven monsoon in 2026 is likely to increase reliance on pulse imports in the coming months.
On the demand side, festival-related consumption of dal is set to intensify from September through November, supporting pulses in general. Market analyses point to elevated price risks across pulses during this period as food inflation stays high into the festive season. Within that context, black gram demand from mills and retailers should remain firm, even if buyers become more selective as visibility on domestic arrivals improves.
Fundamentals
The fundamental picture for black gram is one of balanced-to-softening tightness. Near term, higher-priced Myanmar CNF offers and concerns about rainfall damage in the Indian crop provide support. Yet, structurally, larger expected inflows from Brazil and the seasonal rise in domestic arrivals from central and southern India weigh on the medium-term balance and temper any strong bullish narrative.
By contrast, arhar/tur fundamentals look comparatively tighter. Domestic arrivals have been lower, and recent trade assessments indicate that tur prices are likely to rise further in the short term on low supplies, crop concerns and high festival demand, with African imports priced above many domestic spot markets. This relative scarcity in tur is one reason arhar prices are described as more exposed to delayed arrivals and African replacement costs, while urad is cushioned by more diversified supply channels.
Weather & Crop Quality Outlook
Persistent rainfall episodes in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have increased risks of waterlogging, pod damage and quality downgrades in standing urad crops. This comes against the backdrop of a weak monsoon pattern and below-normal rainfall in several pulse-growing areas, which is expected to reduce overall kharif pulse production and sustain India’s import needs.
For the next few weeks, any further heavy rainfall in central and northern India would likely deepen concerns over quality losses and harvest delays, lending short-term support to higher grade imported urad. Conversely, an improvement in weather with drier, harvesting-friendly conditions would help normalize arrivals, putting renewed downward pressure on domestic prices.
Market & Trading Outlook
Festive demand is the key upside driver for black gram prices through September and October, with mills keen to secure quality raw material. However, rising domestic arrivals from late September, together with Brazilian shipments landing in October, are expected to cap extreme upside. In contrast, arhar remains more vulnerable to supply delays and elevated African import costs, suggesting firmer relative pricing in tur-based dals versus urad.
- For importers and millers: Use current firmness in Myanmar CNF urad values to selectively cover near-term festival requirements, but avoid over-buying beyond October given the expected Brazilian arrivals and domestic inflow.
- For domestic traders: Maintain a quality premium for clean, well-dried urad lots amid ongoing rainfall-related concerns, while being cautious on outright long positions into late October when supply pressure is likely to increase.
- For arhar users: Consider staggered coverage of requirements, as tighter fundamentals and high African replacement costs point to a more persistent firmness versus urad, especially if crop concerns in key states persist.
Short-Term Price Direction (3-Day View)
Over the next three trading days, imported black gram values in India are likely to remain slightly firm in EUR terms, reflecting recent CNF strength and a still-supportive festive demand backdrop, but with limited room to rally as participants factor in imminent Brazilian and domestic supplies. Arhar prices are expected to stay comparatively stronger, with any fresh delays in African shipments or adverse crop news in India quickly translating into additional upside risk.