Black Gram Market Softens as Myanmar Offers Ease but Festive Demand Looms

India’s black gram (urad) market is currently trading with a soft-to-mixed tone as weak imported offers from Myanmar and limited dal-mill buying cap upside, even as the festive season approaches. Imports have fallen notably year on year, but expectations of higher forward arrivals and a steady demand base suggest a range‑bound market rather than a sharp rally. Domestic urad prices across Indian mandis have eased over the past month and are currently trading modestly below the government MSP on average, signalling adequate near‑term supply despite localized crop damage. At the same time, Myanmar CNF offers for September–October shipment have softened from recent peaks, narrowing replacement costs for Indian buyers. With festival-led consumption set to pick up and policy support in place through extended free import rules, the market is finely balanced between downside risk from larger arrivals and upside support from demand and international cost floors.

Prices

Urad wholesale mandi prices in India averaged about ₹7,700/quintal on September 22, 2026, with a national median near ₹8,100/quintal, around 6% below the current MSP of ₹8,200/quintal. This reflects a roughly 16% decline versus late August, underlining the recent softening trend. Official monitoring shows all‑India average wholesale urad dal prices stable to slightly weaker, confirming that, at the aggregate level, the market is not facing acute tightness.

On the import side, Myanmar FAQ urad for September–October shipment is quoted around $875/tonne CNF, while SQ quality is near $965/tonne CNF, slightly softer than indications reported earlier this week. Overseas offers therefore still imply a firm cost base but no longer an aggressively bullish signal, aligning with the current soft-to-mixed domestic tone.

Supply & Demand

India’s urad imports dropped about 14% year on year in January–July 2026 to roughly 394,500 tonnes, down from around 458,900 tonnes a year earlier. This contraction has tightened the overall balance compared with last season, but the extension of India’s free import policy for urad through March 2027 ensures that trade flows can accelerate again if domestic prices rise too sharply.

Crop damage in some producing states is leading to higher arrivals of lighter-quality urad, adding to near‑term physical availability but weighing on premiums for better grades. Festival demand for urad dal is expected to be supportive in the coming weeks, particularly in key consuming states, yet buyers are currently cautious, pacing purchases in anticipation of increased import arrivals and continued government oversight.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Import parity: Current Myanmar FAQ and SQ CNF offers, while slightly weaker, still set a relatively high floor under Indian replacement costs, limiting deep downside in spot prices.
• Policy backdrop: The extended free import regime and existing Myanmar–India long‑term import framework allow quick scaling-up of shipments if domestic prices spike, acting as a cap on any sustained rally.
• Currency & macro: A weaker rupee near ₹95.5 per dollar increases the local cost of dollar‑denominated imports, partially offsetting the recent softening of CNF offers.
• Price trend: Mandi data show urad trading below MSP on average and down around 2–3% over the past week and 16% over the past month, highlighting a corrective phase following earlier highs.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market sentiment points to a broadly range‑bound urad market in the near term. Crop quality issues, lower year‑on‑year imports and impending festival demand all offer support, but expectations of increased forward imports and policy flexibility argue against a major rally in the immediate future.

• Millers / processors: Consider staggered buying on dips while prices remain below MSP, prioritizing better-quality lots as the spread to lower grades may widen if damaged crop arrivals continue.
• Importers / traders: Use the current soft CNF offers from Myanmar to cover short‑term commitments but remain cautious about over‑length positions given policy risk and the scope for further domestic arrivals.
• Producers: Where feasible, avoid distress selling at current discounts to MSP; monitor potential procurement and festival‑driven offtake which could improve realizations for higher grades.

3-Day Directional View (India)

• Domestic mandis (raw urad): Bias mildly soft to sideways as damaged-crop arrivals persist and mills keep buying disciplined.
• Imported CNF (Myanmar FAQ/SQ): Sideways with a slight soft tone, tracking global pulses sentiment and FX, but still anchoring a firm cost floor.
• Urad dal (processed): Largely steady with a slight upside bias in key urban centres as festival stocking begins, even if raw seed markets stay range‑bound.