Black Gram Softens as New Crop Arrives, But Festive Demand Cushions Downside

Urad (black gram) prices are easing as new-crop arrivals expand in India and Myanmar export offers soften, but the approaching festive season is expected to prevent a deep correction. Physical markets in India are reporting weaker dal-mill buying alongside growing new-crop volumes from key producing belts such as Lalitpur and Bijapur. At the same time, Myanmar CNF offers for September–October shipment have slipped, signalling looser nearby supply. Nevertheless, active festive consumption and still-firm import interest suggest a transition to a softer yet supported market, rather than a sustained downtrend.

Prices

Domestic urad prices in India have come under pressure in mid-September as the market digests rising arrivals and moderating mill demand. New Delhi reports weaker trade sentiment, with dal mills stepping back after earlier requirement-based buying.

On the import side, Myanmar FAQ urad for September–October shipment has declined to about $885 per tonne CNF, while SQ quality has softened to around $965 per tonne CNF. At an indicative exchange rate of 1 EUR = 0.90 USD, this implies approximately 885 USD ≈ 797 EUR/t and 965 USD ≈ 869 EUR/t, highlighting a modest but clear softening in offshore values.

Wholesale urad dal prices across India average about ₹11,343 per quintal as of 15 September, down over the past month, implying roughly 101 EUR per 100 kg when converted from INR to EUR. This aligns with Agmarknet-based mandi data showing a 6–7% decline over the last week and near 19% over 30 days, confirming that futures and physical markets are consolidating lower rather than rallying.

Supply & Demand

New-crop supply is the dominant driver. Arrivals of fresh urad are increasing, with markets such as Lalitpur reporting about 129 quintals of new-crop receipts, albeit with around 20% moisture, and Bijapur-origin material moving for Gulbarga delivery. These initial flows are expected to build as harvesting progresses, adding steady pressure to spot values.

In parallel, larger domestic acreage under pulses—particularly urad—has set the stage for improved production this season. Recent official figures indicate urad sown area is notably higher than last year, and market commentary anticipates heavier arrivals of short-duration kharif pulses (including urad) from the coming month. This structural increase in supply, combined with India’s ongoing free-import policy for black gram from Myanmar, reduces the likelihood of any sharp upside move in prices.

On the demand side, dal-mill buying has slowed in recent sessions as they work through existing stocks and await clearer signals from new-crop quality and moisture levels. However, India is entering its peak festive demand window, which typically supports consumption of urad dal and related value-added products. This seasonal demand, together with still-firm consumer prices for competing pulses like tur and chana, should keep end-use of urad resilient even as supply expands.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals are shifting from tight to more balanced. The combination of higher kharif acreage, incremental new-crop arrivals and competitive CNF offers from Myanmar points toward a more comfortable supply situation for the coming months. Government data also highlight that total pulse acreage is ahead of last year, underscoring a broader production cushion.

Weather is a mixed but gradually less critical factor. The 2026 southwest monsoon is trending below normal across many parts of India, yet the urad crop—largely a short-duration kharif pulse—has already progressed sufficiently for key producing belts. Localised heavy rainfall may delay some arrivals and affect quality in pockets, but widespread yield loss risk now appears moderate. As a result, production expectations for urad remain broadly stable, reinforcing the view of limited upside risk.

Outlook & Trading Guidance

A major rally in black gram prices is viewed as unlikely in the near term. Rising domestic arrivals, increased sowing area and easier Myanmar offers collectively cap upside potential. At the same time, active festive consumption of urad dal over the next two months, along with import demand at current CNF levels, is expected to provide a solid floor against a steep downturn.

Market tone is therefore biased toward a gently softer but range-bound structure: prices may drift lower as moisture-adjusted new-crop supplies scale up, yet any deep sell-off is likely to attract fresh mill and stockist buying. Volatility could emerge around quality differentials (moisture, grading) and government policy moves on stocks or duties, but current fundamentals point to consolidation rather than trend reversal.

Practical trading takeaways

• Dal mills: Consider staggered buying on dips near current levels, focusing on better-quality new-crop parcels as moisture normalises; avoid aggressive forward coverage given rising arrivals.
• Importers: Myanmar FAQ around ~800 EUR/t CNF and SQ near ~870 EUR/t remain workable but offer limited upside; maintain only need-based purchases until post-festive stock levels and Indian crop size are clearer.
• Stockists & traders: Use brief rallies driven by festive demand to lighten older, lower-quality inventory; re-enter selectively if domestic prices test fresh seasonal lows supported by mill demand.

3-day directional view (EUR)

• Imported Myanmar FAQ, CNF India: Stable to slightly softer, in a rough band around 780–810 EUR/t as buyers negotiate on higher supply.
• Imported Myanmar SQ, CNF India: Largely steady, around 850–880 EUR/t, with quality premiums intact but capped by broader supply comfort.
• India wholesale urad dal (all-India average): Mild downside bias from roughly 95–105 EUR/100 kg as new-crop arrivals grow, but demand into festivals should limit sharper falls.