Black Gram Softens on Cheaper Myanmar Offers, But Monsoon Risks Linger

Myanmar-origin black gram (urad) prices have eased from recent highs as CNF offers for July–August shipment soften, but domestic values remain relatively firm thanks to tight port inventories and still‑cautious supply sentiment. Improved Kharif sowing in India and expectations of fresh Myanmar arrivals point to a gradual loosening of fundamentals if upcoming rains cooperate. After weeks of strength, the black gram market is moving into a consolidation phase. Lower Myanmar offers for both FAQ and SQ quality are filtering into Indian import parity, while spot imported urad has corrected modestly from peak levels. At the same time, domestic sowing has accelerated on recent rainfall, with official data now showing urad acreage running ahead of last year, easing fears of a severe supply squeeze. Nevertheless, a below‑normal monsoon forecast for 2026 and limited current port stocks keep weather and logistics risks firmly on the radar.

Prices

CNF prices for Myanmar FAQ urad for July–August shipment have declined to around USD 940 per tonne, while SQ has eased to roughly USD 1,035 per tonne, signaling a clear softening versus earlier costly offers. In the Indian market, imported FAQ urad is trading near USD 98.19–98.71 per quintal, with SQ quoted around USD 102.35–102.87 per quintal.

Converted to euros (approx. 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), this implies imported FAQ near 90–91 EUR per quintal and SQ around 94–95 EUR per quintal. Domestic Madhya Pradesh urad remains comparatively firm against these import parity levels, underlining continued demand for reliable local supplies amid still‑low inventories at major ports.

Supply & Demand

Port inventories for black gram in India are currently limited, which has so far cushioned domestic prices from the full downside implied by cheaper Myanmar offers. However, fresh Myanmar shipments are expected over the coming weeks, aligning with the July–August CNF deals and likely improving coastal availability through late Q3.

On the domestic side, urad sowing has improved sharply since late July, with the latest figures showing national urad acreage about 8% above last year as of July 24, helped by better rains in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This rebound in sowing reduces the probability of an acute supply shortage in the 2026/27 marketing year, although yield outcomes will still hinge on rainfall distribution through September and October.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental picture is shifting from tightness toward cautious balance. Earlier, weak Kharif sowing and firm overseas offers had underpinned a rally in Indian black gram prices. More recently, offers from Myanmar have softened, while government data confirm a catch‑up and now outperformance in urad sowing versus last year, pointing to improved medium‑term availability.

Weather remains the key wildcard. The India Meteorological Department now expects the 2026 southwest monsoon (June–September) to be below normal at around 90% of the long‑period average, driven in part by El Niño conditions. For pulses such as urad, adequate rainfall in September and October is critical for pod filling and final yields; any renewed monsoon shortfall in these months could reverse the current easing bias and re‑ignite price strength.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

Near term, the combination of limited port stocks and cheaper Myanmar CNF offers points to a mildly softer but still supported market. As fresh cargoes arrive and the improved sowing picture is priced in, downside risks grow for late Q3 and early Q4, provided rainfall in September–October stays at least near normal in major urad belts.

However, the elevated probability of a below‑normal overall monsoon, coupled with uneven intra‑seasonal rainfall so far, argues against assuming a deep or sustained price correction. Market sentiment is likely to stay sensitive to any negative crop‑condition news or shipping delays from Myanmar, especially for higher‑quality SQ lots.

• Importers / Dal mills: Use the current dip in Myanmar FAQ/SQ CNF offers to secure staggered coverage for Q3–Q4, but avoid over‑buying ahead of clearer indications on September–October rainfall.
• Domestic stockists: Gradually lighten high‑cost inventory on price rallies, while maintaining a core position in Madhya Pradesh and other key origins as a hedge against potential monsoon‑related yield issues.
• End users (large buyers): Consider a mix of spot and forward bookings for 2–3 months ahead, balancing the softening in import parity with the still‑elevated weather risk for the new crop.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, in EUR)

• Mumbai (imported FAQ/SQ, converted to EUR): Slight downside bias as cheaper Myanmar shipments are discounted into port offers; expect a narrow 1–2% range move lower if arrivals materialize as planned.
• Indore (Madhya Pradesh urad): Mostly stable with a mild soft tone; domestic firmness should persist but may ease marginally if news on sowing and crop conditions remains positive.
• Chennai/Kolkata ports (Myanmar origin): Soft to steady; increased CNF pressure may translate into small local declines, contingent on near‑term discharge and logistics flows.