Black Sea Tension Keeps Wheat Firm While German Feed Values Edge Up

Ukrainian CPT Odesa wheat and German EXW feed wheat are holding firm to slightly higher this week, supported by strong global futures and ongoing Black Sea logistics risk. Domestic Ukrainian prices in EUR remain flat despite a near-doubling of early‑September wheat exports, while German feed wheat in Lower Saxony has edged up in line with resilient Euronext milling wheat. Physical markets in both DE and UA are closely tracking international benchmarks. Euronext September/December milling wheat is consolidating near €240/t after last week’s spike, while CBOT contracts remain elevated on Black Sea disruption and constrained Russian exports. At the same time, Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor has regained dominance in the country’s grain logistics, and weekly exports have jumped despite high freight costs. Near‑term weather in Lower Saxony and Odesa looks mostly dry to moderately wet, pointing to limited immediate yield risk but possible harvest and logistics delays in parts of northern Germany.

Prices

Ukrainian food and feed wheat on a CPT Odesa basis have been reported unchanged over the last week at roughly USD 185/t and USD 175/t respectively, which equates to around EUR 170–180/t depending on the exact FX rate and quality adjustments. These levels are broadly consistent with stable local quotations even as export volumes rise.

In Germany, recent reports place feed wheat in northern regions, including Lower Saxony, around EUR 240/t EXW, only marginally softer than the early‑September highs and closely aligned with our latest indications. On Euronext, nearby milling wheat has eased off last week’s peak but is still trading in the low €240s per tonne after expiry‑related volatility in the September contract. CBOT wheat in EUR/t remains historically high, reflecting persistent geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and tighter export expectations from Russia.

Supply & Demand

Ukraine’s wheat export program has accelerated at the start of September. Between 1–3 September, wheat shipments totaled about 116,800 t, or nearly 39,000 t/day, almost double the August daily pace. More broadly, weekly exports of wheat, corn and barley jumped 80% in the week to 2 September to 433,700 t, underscoring strong pipeline demand once logistics are available.

The re‑opened Black Sea corridor now carries around 80% of Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports, a marked reversal from earlier in the war when Danube and land routes dominated. However, the corridor remains exposed to security risks, as recent attacks and heightened military activity in the wider region continue to unsettle freight and insurance markets, keeping Black Sea wheat risk premiums in place. At the same time, strong global futures reflect not just Ukrainian risk but also tightening expectations for Russian exports in September.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

On the macro side, global wheat futures are still supported by broader Black Sea disruption. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat all rallied this week on continued uncertainty over Black Sea shipping and the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough between Russia and Ukraine. Market narratives have been reinforced by reports that Russian wheat exports in September could fall sharply to around 1.6–2.0 Mt versus 4.9 Mt a year ago, mainly due to logistical bottlenecks and export duties.

In Europe, Euronext milling wheat has come off recent highs but remains well above mid‑summer levels. Data from German and regional market services confirm a modest correction early in the week, followed by stabilization around €232–241/t as expiry effects fade and attention shifts back to fundamentals. German feed wheat in Lower Saxony has mirrored this path, softening slightly from the peak yet staying historically firm. Given that Ukraine and Russia together account for over a quarter of global wheat exports, any further tightening in Russian shipments while Ukrainian flows remain fragile tends to underpin EU and German prices.

Weather Outlook (DE, UA)

For Drentwede in Lower Saxony, the next three days (10–12 September) are forecast mostly cloudy with mild temperatures around 19–21°C, and light rain expected mainly on Friday. This pattern is neutral‑to‑slightly supportive for soil moisture but may cause brief interruptions for any remaining fieldwork rather than substantial yield impacts at this stage of the season.

In Odesa and the wider Odesa oblast, forecasts point to pleasant, mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs between 24–28°C and cool nights, along with generally dry weather. Such conditions are favourable for port logistics, grain handling and quality preservation, helping Ukraine to execute its increased export program through the Black Sea corridor without immediate weather‑related delays.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Germany (DE, feed wheat): With Euronext consolidating around €240/t and no acute domestic weather shock, EXW prices in Lower Saxony are likely to remain in a €235–245/t band. Hedgers may consider incremental forward sales near the top of this range while keeping some upside cover against further Black Sea escalation.
• Ukraine (UA, CPT Odesa): Stable local CPT levels despite higher exports suggest buyers are well covered in the short term. Exporters could use current flat prices to secure additional volumes, but should manage freight and security risks via short‑dated hedges on Euronext/CBOT.
• Global linkage: Any confirmed tightening of Russian export flow or renewed attacks on key Ukrainian ports would likely trigger another leg higher in futures, passing through quickly into both UA CPT and DE EXW indications.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (directional)

• DE – Lower Saxony feed wheat (EXW): Bias: sideways to mildly firm. Weather is neutral; direction will mainly follow Euronext, which currently looks range‑bound.
• UA – Odesa food & feed wheat (CPT): Bias: sideways to firm. Strong export pace and good port weather support stable or slightly higher bids, with upside capped by global demand elasticity.