Black Sea wheat eases as new-crop outlook improves in Ukraine and Germany

Ukrainian wheat prices on a CPT Odesa basis are stable to slightly softer, while German feed wheat holds a small premium. Improving crop prospects in Ukraine and a developing heatwave in northern Germany are the main short‑term drivers, keeping Black Sea origin competitive but capping upside. Physical wheat markets in the Black Sea and EU are entering the new‑crop window with generally comfortable global supply expectations and pressure from lower international benchmarks. Old‑crop Ukrainian export prices are broadly steady, but bids for new‑crop are edging down as benign weather supports crop potential. In Germany, very warm to hot conditions in the northwest create some weather risk, yet for now primarily support basis rather than flat price levels. Against this backdrop, end‑users see good near‑term coverage opportunities, while producers face growing pressure to finalize old‑crop sales.

Prices & Spreads

All prices converted to EUR per kg for comparability.

*Indicative, based on recent internal quotes; futures benchmarks are edging lower into new crop, adding mild downward pressure on physical markets.

Internationally, global wheat prices have eased this week ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest. Russian and Black Sea offers remain aggressive, and global benchmarks are softening as trade anticipates ample 2026 supply despite localized weather issues in the U.S. and parts of Russia.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest is currently projected around 22.8–23 million tonnes, slightly above last year and above the recent post‑invasion average, supported by relatively favorable conditions in central, southern and eastern regions. Export potential is solid: total grain and pulse exports in the 2025/26 season reached about 34.9 million tonnes by 12 June, highlighting that despite logistics and security risks, Ukraine remains a significant Black Sea supplier.

Domestic Ukrainian market reports this week describe wheat export prices as generally stable, with some softening on new‑crop offers thanks to improving harvest expectations and steady demand. Competition from Russia in key import markets continues to cap any rally in Ukrainian FOB/Odesa values, forcing Ukrainian exporters to maintain a discount to remain competitive in North Africa and the Middle East.

On the demand side, no major new tenders have tightened the nearby balance in the last few days, and buyers appear comfortable delaying larger coverage into the harvest period, expecting continued availability and freight options from the Black Sea corridor and EU ports.

Weather Outlook (UA & DE)

Ukraine (Odesa & Kyiv regions, 18–20 June 2026): Odesa is forecast to see mostly sunny, warm conditions with highs around 24–26°C, only isolated showers. Kyiv should experience partly sunny weather with scattered showers and highs in the mid‑20s°C, turning cloudier with some rain by the weekend. These conditions are broadly favorable for winter wheat grain filling and final crop development, supporting the current above‑average yield outlook in much of central and southern Ukraine.

Germany (northwest, incl. Drentwede/Bremen region, 18–20 June 2026): A heatwave is developing, with temperatures in the Bremen area forecast to reach about 28–34°C over the next two days, accompanied by periods of sun, humidity and a risk of local thunderstorms. Short, intense heat during grain filling can trim yield potential where soil moisture is limited, but current forecasts suggest only a brief extreme phase; at this stage, it mainly supports firmer local basis levels rather than significantly tightening overall EU supply.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Global balance: USDA’s latest outlook points to a modest decline in global wheat production from last year’s record but still above the 10‑year average, keeping ending stocks historically comfortable. This underpins the recent easing in futures and export values.
• Ukraine crop conditions: Joint Research Centre and local analysts report that despite drought issues in western oblasts, most central, southern and eastern regions show good to very good winter wheat conditions, with yields expected above the five‑year average.
• Price trend in Ukraine: Local consultancy data this week highlight a decline in new‑crop bid levels relative to old‑crop, reflecting improved harvest prospects and stable export demand.
• Logistics & war risk: While continued attacks on infrastructure keep freight and insurance costs elevated, current export figures confirm that Ukraine is still able to move large volumes via Black Sea and alternative EU corridors, preventing a sharp supply squeeze.

3‑Day Price Outlook (UA & DE)

Given the benign weather in Ukraine, strong competition in the Black Sea and easing global benchmarks, flat prices are more likely to drift sideways to slightly lower in the very short term.

Trading Outlook

• Importers (MENA/EU feed buyers): Consider layering in nearby and early new‑crop coverage from Ukraine while CPT/FOB discounts to EU origins remain attractive and weather is still benign.
• Ukrainian farmers: Use current relatively stable CPT and FCA levels to advance old‑crop sales and start pricing a portion of new‑crop, as improved harvest expectations and global stocks argue for limited upside short term.
• German livestock/feed users: Given possible local heat‑related yield risk, maintain flexible coverage via a mix of domestic and imported Black Sea origin to hedge against any basis spike later in the season.

Over the next three days, expect Ukrainian CPT wheat prices in Odesa to remain broadly stable with a slight softening tendency, while German EXW feed wheat in the northwest should hold firm to slightly stronger on weather‑driven basis support, within the context of overall soft global benchmarks.