Brazil Soybean Outlook 2025/26: Record Production, Export Surge, but Financing Strains Persist
Brazil is poised to hit a new all-time high in soybean production at 176 MMT in 2025/26, fueled by expanded planting, favourable weather, and strong export demand, particularly from China. However, rising input costs and high interest rates weigh on farmer margins and investment appetite.
📊 1. Key Indicators Summary
| Metric | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (est.) | 2025/26 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area harvested | 46.15 Mha | 47.6 Mha | 49.1 Mha ↑ +3% |
| Production | 154.5 MMT | 169.5 MMT | 176.0 MMT ↑ +3.8% |
| Average yield | 3.35 t/ha | 3.56 t/ha (record) | 3.58 t/ha ↑ |
| Soybean exports | 108.3 MMT | 114.0 MMT ↑ +5.3% | |
| Soybean crush | 57.0 MMT | 58.0 MMT | |
| Soybean oil production | 11.5 MMT | 11.6 MMT | |
| Soybean meal production | 43.5 MMT | 43.9 MMT |
🌱 2. Area Expansion & Yield Performance
- Planted area for 2025/26: forecasted at 49.1 Mha, a 3% rise over the current year.
- Driven by remote sensing discoveries and potential relaxation of the Soy Moratorium.
- Yield records:
- Goiás: highest yielding state (4.12 t/ha).
- Southeast Brazil: most productive region (3.97 t/ha).
- MATOPIBA region: improving steadily (Bahia avg. 4.08 t/ha).
- Rio Grande do Sul: worst hit by drought, yields fell to 2.08 t/ha (page 4).
⚖️ 3. Policy & Environment
- Soy Moratorium debate intensifies: The Supreme Court allowed Mato Grosso to withhold tax benefits from participating firms starting January 2026.
- “Vazio Sanitário” (sanitary void) periods updated for all states to control Asian soybean rust (see table on page 6).
- Environmental licensing law (PL 2.159/2021) under review could fast-track infrastructure like roads, railways, and ethanol plants, unlocking BRL 8 billion in freight savings.
💰 4. Economic Pressures
- Despite bumper crops, farmers face:
- High interest rates (Selic up to 15%) – see chart on page 9.
- Rising input costs (fertilisers, fuel).
- Stagnating farmgate prices (down 2% YoY).
- Result: mounting loan defaults and judicial recovery filings.
🌍 5. Trade: Brazil Tightens Grip on China Market
- China imported 16.9 MMT from Brazil in Q1 2025 (↑ 7%), while cutting U.S. imports by 8%.
- March 2025 was Brazil’s 2nd-highest monthly export to China (11.1 MMT).
- Port of Santos expansion (STS11 terminal by COFCO) to increase capacity from 3 MMT → 14.3 MMT in 2026.
🏭 6. Domestic Demand: Crushing & Biofuel Drive
- Crush estimate raised to 58.0 MMT, up 2.1%.
- Drivers:
- Livestock feed (meal).
- Upcoming B15 biodiesel mandate (soy oil).
- Soy oil exports (Jan–May 2025): 658,000 MT (+30%), with India = 70% share.
- Soy meal exports (Jan–May 2025): 9.6 MMT, led by Indonesia, Thailand, EU.
📦 7. Ending Stocks & Supply Chain
| Product | Ending Stocks 2025/26 |
|---|---|
| Soybeans | 4.84 MMT |
| Soy oil | 456,000 MT |
| Soy meal | 1.35 MMT |
Inventories remain tight due to strong export pull and steady domestic consumption.
🧭 Conclusion & Outlook
- Brazil’s soybean sector is thriving in volume and productivity, but financial headwinds and policy uncertainty threaten long-term investment.
- The country’s position as a top global supplier to China is strengthening.
- Upcoming infrastructure upgrades and biodiesel mandates add positive structural momentum, if macro conditions improve.
Source: USDA