🇧🇷 Brazil USDA Sugar Report 2025 – Summary

1. Overview

• Brazil remains the world’s largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the marketing year (MY) 2025/26.
• Expected sugarcane production: 671 million metric tons.
• Expected sugar production: 44.7 million metric tons (raw value).
• Sugar exports are expected to rise slightly to 35.8 million metric tons.

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2. Sugarcane Production and Harvest Estimates

Year	Area Planted (1,000 ha)	Area Harvested (1,000 ha)	Production (1,000 MT)
2023/24	9,800	9,650	652,000
2024/25	9,800	9,650	677,800
2025/26	9,850	9,600	671,000 (forecast)

• Main producing regions: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
• Extreme weather events such as droughts and wildfires in 2024 impacted sugarcane quality.

🔹 Chart:

• Page 4: Historical sugarcane production 2000–2025 – Brazil maintains high levels despite challenges.

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3. Sugar Production and Exports

Year	Sugar Production (1,000 MT)	Exports (1,000 MT)	Domestic Consumption (1,000 MT)	Ending Stocks (1,000 MT)
2023/24	41,000	32,500	8,800	390
2024/25	43,700	34,890	9,000	200
2025/26	44,700	35,800	8,900	200

• Brazil mainly produces raw sugar (VHP) and crystal sugar.
• Main export destinations: China, Algeria, Indonesia, India.

🔹 Chart:

• Page 13: Export development 2018–2026 – steadily increasing trend.

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4. Prices and Market Trends

Domestic Market (Crystal Sugar Index)

Month	2023 (BRL/50kg)	2024 (BRL/50kg)	2025 (BRL/50kg)
January	133.98	145.04	155.31
February	132.09	145.99	143.74
March	132.00	143.58	139.68
April	141.03	147.14	141.59*

*April 2025: as of April 7.

• Domestic price development 2024/25: slight decrease (-4.73%).

International Market Prices

• Raw sugar May 2025 contracts: approximately 18 US cents/lb as of April 11, 2025.
• Price equivalency analysis shows that sugar exports were slightly more profitable than domestic sales.

🔹 Chart:

• Page 12: Raw sugar prices New York #11 trend chart.

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5. Climatic Conditions

• 2024: Extreme El Niño year → severe droughts and wildfires.
• Wildfires:
  • 279,000 recorded outbreaks nationwide (highest since 2010).
  • Particularly affected: Mato Grosso, São Paulo, Minas Gerais.

🔹 Charts:

• Page 19: Wildfire hotspot map for sugarcane regions.
• Page 20: Burned areas vs. sugarcane fields in São Paulo.
• Impacts for 2025/26 crop:
  • Possible yield losses.
  • Need for additional crop recovery measures (e.g., fertilization, replanting).

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6. Political Developments

• USA: Brazil received a TRQ allocation of 155,993 MTRV in 2025.
• Tariffs:
  • USA: Introduction of an additional 10% penalty tariff on Brazilian sugar imports.
  • Brazil: Removal of import tariffs on sugar (down to 0%) to curb domestic inflation.

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7. Research and Innovations

• Breeding programs:
  • Institutions like CTC, IAC, Nuseed, and RIDESA are driving the development of improved sugarcane varieties.
  • Focus on drought and disease resistance and higher yields.

🔹 Chart:

• Page 16: Overview of protected sugarcane varieties.

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📊 Final Conclusion

Brazil remains a key player in the global sugar market. Despite climatic challenges (droughts, wildfires), the outlook for MY 2025/26 shows solid production and stable export prospects.
However, the effects of extreme weather may become more visible from mid-2025 onwards.

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