🇧🇷 Brazil USDA Sugar Report 2025 – Summary
1. Overview
- Brazil remains the world’s largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the marketing year (MY) 2025/26.
- Expected sugarcane production: 671 million metric tons.
- Expected sugar production: 44.7 million metric tons (raw value).
- Sugar exports are expected to rise slightly to 35.8 million metric tons.
2. Sugarcane Production and Harvest Estimates
| Year | Area Planted (1,000 ha) | Area Harvested (1,000 ha) | Production (1,000 MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 9,800 | 9,650 | 652,000 |
| 2024/25 | 9,800 | 9,650 | 677,800 |
| 2025/26 | 9,850 | 9,600 | 671,000 (forecast) |
- Main producing regions: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
- Extreme weather events such as droughts and wildfires in 2024 impacted sugarcane quality.
🔹 Chart:
- Page 4: Historical sugarcane production 2000–2025 – Brazil maintains high levels despite challenges.
3. Sugar Production and Exports
| Year | Sugar Production (1,000 MT) | Exports (1,000 MT) | Domestic Consumption (1,000 MT) | Ending Stocks (1,000 MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 41,000 | 32,500 | 8,800 | 390 |
| 2024/25 | 43,700 | 34,890 | 9,000 | 200 |
| 2025/26 | 44,700 | 35,800 | 8,900 | 200 |
- Brazil mainly produces raw sugar (VHP) and crystal sugar.
- Main export destinations: China, Algeria, Indonesia, India.
🔹 Chart:
- Page 13: Export development 2018–2026 – steadily increasing trend.
4. Prices and Market Trends
Domestic Market (Crystal Sugar Index)
| Month | 2023 (BRL/50kg) | 2024 (BRL/50kg) | 2025 (BRL/50kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 133.98 | 145.04 | 155.31 |
| February | 132.09 | 145.99 | 143.74 |
| March | 132.00 | 143.58 | 139.68 |
| April | 141.03 | 147.14 | 141.59* |
*April 2025: as of April 7.
- Domestic price development 2024/25: slight decrease (-4.73%).
International Market Prices
- Raw sugar May 2025 contracts: approximately 18 US cents/lb as of April 11, 2025.
- Price equivalency analysis shows that sugar exports were slightly more profitable than domestic sales.
🔹 Chart:
- Page 12: Raw sugar prices New York #11 trend chart.
5. Climatic Conditions
- 2024: Extreme El Niño year → severe droughts and wildfires.
- Wildfires:
- 279,000 recorded outbreaks nationwide (highest since 2010).
- Particularly affected: Mato Grosso, São Paulo, Minas Gerais.
🔹 Charts:
- Page 19: Wildfire hotspot map for sugarcane regions.
- Page 20: Burned areas vs. sugarcane fields in São Paulo.
- Impacts for 2025/26 crop:
- Possible yield losses.
- Need for additional crop recovery measures (e.g., fertilization, replanting).
6. Political Developments
- USA: Brazil received a TRQ allocation of 155,993 MTRV in 2025.
- Tariffs:
- USA: Introduction of an additional 10% penalty tariff on Brazilian sugar imports.
- Brazil: Removal of import tariffs on sugar (down to 0%) to curb domestic inflation.
7. Research and Innovations
- Breeding programs:
- Institutions like CTC, IAC, Nuseed, and RIDESA are driving the development of improved sugarcane varieties.
- Focus on drought and disease resistance and higher yields.
🔹 Chart:
- Page 16: Overview of protected sugarcane varieties.
📊 Final Conclusion
Brazil remains a key player in the global sugar market. Despite climatic challenges (droughts, wildfires), the outlook for MY 2025/26 shows solid production and stable export prospects.
However, the effects of extreme weather may become more visible from mid-2025 onwards.
