California Walnut Market – May 2025 Shipments Hit New Lows 🌰
📍 Inshell shipments down 68.5% in May – Kernel shipments fall 37.3%, demand remains sluggish
The California walnut industry continues to face pressure, with May inshell shipments down 68.5% and kernel shipments down 37.3% year-over-year. Overall, inshell shipments for the crop year are down 56.3%, while kernel shipments have fallen -20.4%. A quiet market, limited inventories, and poor demand from key markets such as India continue to weigh on sales.
📊 1. Shipment Summary – May 2025
| Category | May 2025 | May 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| In-Shell Shipments | 5.56 million lbs | 13.34 million lbs | -68.5% |
| Kernel Shipments | 31.76 million lbs | 47.67 million lbs | -37.3% |
| Crop YTD (Inshell) | — | — | -56.3% |
| Crop YTD (Kernels) | — | — | -20.4% |
🌱 2. Crop Update
- Final Crop Receipts (2024):
- Conventional: 590,481 tons
- Organic: 14,807 tons
- 🔻 The total 2024 crop is 11.9% below the forecast of 670,000 tons.
📈 3. Market Conditions
- 💤 The market remains quiet for the 1–2 months, with low buyer engagement.
- ⚠️ Buyers want products that sellers don’t have; this mismatch has limited trade activity.
- 💰 Price differences between sellers for the same item can vary $0.10–$0.15/lb.
- 🇨🇱 Chilean walnut suppliers reported strong sales, especially to Europe (retail) and Dubai (inshell).
- 🇮🇳 India’s demand remains weak due to customs duty investigations, making it the weakest major market.
- 📈 Chilean strength could help CA sellers with new crop pricing.
💸 4. Price Trends – May 2025 (Visual Summary)
Chandler Walnut Prices (Page 7):
- Chandler Inshell Jumbo/Large: trending upward from lows, but still well below previous highs.
- Chandler LHP 20%: similar moderate recovery, indicating slow price rebound.
🌍 5. Export Market Signals
- 🇮🇳 India: Weak due to legal/investigative barriers.
- 🇦🇪 Dubai: Chile is currently dominating in-shell trade.
- 🇪🇺 Europe: Strong demand for retail walnuts from Chile, limited CA participation.
🔮 6. Outlook & Recommendations
Outlook
- Demand is likely to remain weak into early summer unless conditions change.
- India may remain subdued until customs/duty issues are resolved.
- Chile’s success may help raise global pricing expectations, but could also reduce market share for CA unless pricing aligns.
Recommendations
For Sellers:
✅ Use Chile’s momentum to promote new crop pricing early
✅ Focus on flexible pricing to capture missed trade
✅ Be proactive in alternative markets like Europe & MENA
For Buyers:
✅ Leverage current market oversupply to negotiate favourable contracts
✅ Watch for inventory tightness in specific specs if prices rebound in Q3
