Canadian Barley Exports Surge as EU Feed Prices Ease Slightly

Canadian barley has started the 2026/27 marketing year with a strong export push, even as weekly shipments just showed a first pause. Combined with softer EU feed barley prices, the market is balancing robust North American flows against a generally well-supplied global feed complex. Barley shipments out of Canada are almost three times last year’s early-season pace, supported by active producer selling, while oats lag sharply. At the same time, European feed barley benchmarks have eased modestly, reflecting comfortable regional supplies and competitive Black Sea offers. Heavy rains and lingering drought risks across the Canadian Prairies now add uncertainty around harvest progress and final quality, which could inject fresh volatility into export values over the coming weeks.

Prices

Spot indications for feed barley remain relatively soft in Europe, with EU reference prices for feed barley in August around the mid-160s EUR/t and trending slightly lower into early September.   Export quotations at France’s Rouen port, a key benchmark for EU feed barley, slipped to about 267.5 USD/t (roughly 248 EUR/t) FOB on 12 September, down around 1.5% week-on-week.  

Physical offers in continental Europe and the Black Sea underline this softer tone. Recent offers for German feed-grade barley ex-warehouse have hovered around 0.22–0.23 EUR/kg (220–230 EUR/t), while Ukrainian feed barley for export is indicated near 0.13–0.16 EUR/kg (130–160 EUR/t) depending on logistics and basis. These levels place Black Sea origin at a clear discount to core EU origins, capping upside in European domestic markets.

Supply & Demand

Canada’s barley export programme has started the 2026/27 season with notably strong momentum. Cumulative shipments reached 176,600 tonnes by 6 September, almost 2.9 times the 61,800 tonnes exported over the same period a year earlier. Producer deliveries are also robust at 554,600 tonnes, about 4.3% above last season, signalling good farmer engagement and available early supply.

However, the latest weekly data point flags a potential loss of pace. Exports in the week to 6 September fell to about 15,400 tonnes, a sharp 39.4% drop from 25,400 tonnes the week before. This slowdown may reflect short-term logistical bottlenecks and harvest timing more than underlying demand, but it suggests the initial surge is unlikely to be sustained at the same intensity without continued strong buying interest.

In contrast, the oat complex is starting the season on much weaker footing, with cumulative Canadian oat exports down 20.5% year-on-year and producer deliveries almost 27% lower. This divergence underlines that early-season strength is specific to barley rather than a broad-based grains export boom, and that barley is currently capturing a larger share of the feed export pie.

Fundamentals & Weather

Canada’s strong barley shipments build on expanded 2026 barley area, while oat plantings have fallen compared with last year, reinforcing the relative availability of barley versus oats.  From a demand standpoint, competitive Black Sea and EU feed barley offers, alongside still ample global feed wheat and corn supplies, restrain any aggressive price rally despite Canada’s export strength.

Weather is an emerging wild card. After earlier dryness, the Canadian Prairies have recently been hit by heavy rains that are delaying harvest and complicating fieldwork, with another round of significant rainfall moving through in mid-September.  Persistent moisture on fields already affected by pockets of drought risk could affect both yield and quality, particularly for malting specifications, and potentially tighten the pool of exportable higher-grade barley later in the season.

For now, export flows suggest that feed quality availability is comfortable enough to maintain active shipments. But if adverse weather trims final production or downgrades quality, Canada may eventually have to prioritize higher-margin malting demand and key feed destinations, providing a medium-term floor under prices even if spot values look soft today.

Trading Outlook

• Exporters & traders: Use the current lull in EU benchmark prices and the brief slowdown in Canadian weekly exports to secure forward sales to core Asian and Middle Eastern buyers, while monitoring Prairie harvest delays for potential basis support.
• Feed compounders: With Ukrainian and Black Sea barley still pricing at a clear discount to Western European origins, maintain a flexible feed grain mix, but consider locking in a portion of Q4–Q1 barley needs at current soft prices.
• Producers: Given strong early export interest, avoid excessive forward selling at the weakest harvest levels; stagger sales to retain exposure to potential weather- or logistics-driven rallies later in the marketing year.

3-day Regional Price Indication

• Germany (EXW feed barley): Sideways to slightly softer, around 220–225 EUR/t, with Black Sea competition limiting upside.
• Ukraine (export corridors, feed barley): Steady near 130–160 EUR/t depending on basis; logistics and freight remain key drivers.
• France Rouen (FOB feed barley): Slight downside bias after recent softening, but likely supported by ongoing export demand if Canadian weather issues intensify.