Canadian Lentils Edge Higher as India Tariffs and Weather Risks Loom

Canadian lentil prices are grinding higher, with modest gains in both red and green types as exporters navigate India’s tariff regime and lingering dryness risks on the Prairies. The near-term tone is mildly bullish but constrained by softer global demand growth and higher carry-out expectations.

Canadian FOB values in Ottawa show a steady, incremental uptrend across red football, Laird and Eston green lentils over the past month, supported by firm export interest and tighter on-farm selling. At the same time, India’s import duty on lentils continues to cap upside by dampening some traditional demand from the key destination market. Weather across Western Canada is still in the seasonal transition phase with no acute threat in the coming days, but the market remains sensitive to any signals of a dry start to seeding. Overall, the balance of factors keeps prices supported, with limited scope for sharp moves in either direction in the very short term.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

FOB Ottawa prices in EUR (approximate, based on recent CAD/EUR levels):

Type	Origin	Latest price (EUR/t)	1-week change (EUR/t)	Trend
Red lentils, “Red football”	Canada	≈ 2,340 EUR/t	+18 EUR/t	Mildly firmer
Laird green lentils	Canada	≈ 1,590 EUR/t	+18 EUR/t	Mildly firmer
Eston green lentils	Canada	≈ 1,500 EUR/t	+18 EUR/t	Mildly firmer

(Approximate conversion from quoted CAD/t to EUR/t using a recent CAD/EUR rate.)

Canadian lentil prices this crop year have generally been under pressure versus the previous season as global supply expanded, and official Canadian outlooks have projected lower average prices for both red and green grades in 2024/25 and 2025/26. However, over the past month the short-term direction has turned slightly upward, reflecting active export programs and relatively disciplined farmer selling.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Canada remains the dominant global exporter of lentils, shipping significant volumes to India, Turkey, the UAE and other Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets. Recent national projections foresee lentil supply around 2.7 Mt, exports near 2.1 Mt and carry-out stocks increasing to roughly 0.3 Mt for 2024/25 and 2025/26, indicating a comfortable but not burdensome balance sheet.

The main external drag on Canadian export momentum is India’s reintroduced import duty on lentils. New Delhi imposed a 5–10% customs duty on lentil imports from March 2025 after several years of duty-free access, targeting suppliers including Canada, Australia and Russia. This has increased landed costs into India and encouraged some diversification of origin (notably more competitive Australian shipments within the quota framework), tempering Canadian price upside despite solid underlying demand.

🌦 Weather Outlook for Canadian Growing Regions (Next 3 Days)

With seeding still ahead, short-term weather in key Prairie lentil regions (Saskatchewan and Alberta) is watched mainly for moisture recharge and field conditions rather than yield impacts. Recent regional ag commentary highlights that Western Canada has been dealing with episodes of dryness in recent seasons, which is a lingering risk heading into 2026 seeding.

• Temperature: Near- to slightly below-normal daytime highs with typical late-winter volatility; overnight freezes remain common, which is seasonal and not yet problematic for pulses.
• Precipitation: Light, scattered snow or rain events in parts of the Prairies over the coming days, with limited accumulations. This offers marginal moisture improvement but does not materially change the broader dryness narrative.
• Market relevance: In the very short term (next 3 days), weather is neutral for price direction; the market will react more sharply once seeding windows and extended moisture forecasts become clearer.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Sentiment

Official Canadian projections call for a slight reduction in lentil area and production into 2025/26, with stable exports and higher carry-out pointing to a generally well-supplied market. At the same time, global consumption of pulses remains structurally robust, driven by food inflation concerns and increased use of lentils in processed foods and plant-based proteins.

From a risk perspective, two external drivers stand out:

• Policy risk in India: Future adjustments to import duties or quantitative restrictions could quickly shift demand back toward or away from Canadian product, amplifying price volatility.
• Prairie moisture risk: If spring 2026 brings another drier-than-normal pattern to Saskatchewan and Alberta, yield expectations could be revised down, tightening the 2026/27 balance sheet and supporting higher prices.

📆 Trading Outlook (Short-Term)

• Exporters: Consider locking in modest margins on nearby positions while FOB Ottawa values remain supported and freight/ocean costs are stable. Hedging a portion of Q2–Q3 sales may be prudent given policy uncertainty in India.
• Importers/Buyers (EU, MENA): The current Canadian price level is moderately firm but not stretched. Gradual coverage for Q2–Q3 is advisable, with some flexibility left to add if Prairie drought concerns do not materialize.
• Producers: With prices ticking up but longer-term forecasts still pointing to softer averages versus past peaks, scale-up sales on rallies while retaining some unpriced tonnage in case of weather-driven spikes.

📉 3‑Day Price Direction View (Key Canadian FOB Points)

• Red lentils, FOB Ottawa (Canada): Bias: steady to slightly firmer. Tight nearby selling and ongoing export demand should keep a mild bid under the market.
• Laird green lentils, FOB Ottawa (Canada): Bias: steady. Premium to reds is stable; no strong catalyst for immediate widening or narrowing in the next three days.
• Eston green lentils, FOB Ottawa (Canada): Bias: steady. Trading in a narrow range; watch export enquiry and any early weather headlines for the next directional cue.