Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Vietnam Faces Export Headwinds and EU Demand Stays Supported
Concise July 2026 cashew price update: India, Vietnam and Netherlands kernels hold firm, with tight supply, stable demand and mildly bullish short-term outlook.
Prices
All prices converted to approximate EUR using 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD where external benchmarks are used.
Supply & Demand
Vietnam remains the dominant global processor and exporter and continues to set the reference for kernel prices. Recent Vietnamese data show May 2026 exports at about 74,000 tons (+7.7% m/m in volume and +8.2% in value), but total exports in the first months of 2026 are still around 3–4% below last year, with the industry lowering full-year export targets due to weaker shipments to the Middle East.
China has recently overtaken the US as Vietnam’s largest cashew buyer, supporting overall export volumes and pushing average export prices to multi-year highs, even as US imports from Vietnam eased. This shift helps absorb supply but also concentrates demand risk in a smaller set of destinations. EU demand remains structurally important, with Vietnam providing roughly 45% of extra‑EU in‑shell imports over recent years.
In India, recent local commentary points to subdued trading activity, with weak domestic demand and cautious export buying keeping prices in a narrow range despite firm raw nut and processing costs. This combination limits downside for kernel prices but also discourages aggressive price hikes. In the Netherlands, July import price indications around 7.49 EUR/kg confirm that European buyers are still willing to pay up for kernels, reflecting tightness in high‑quality, food‑service and retail grades.
Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, VN, NL)
India’s main cashew belt (Kerala, Karnataka and neighboring coastal states) is in the heart of the southwest monsoon. Recent updates highlight persistent, sometimes heavy, rains across Kerala and coastal Karnataka, with concerns about localized waterlogging and disease pressure in tree crops. While current conditions mainly affect vegetative growth rather than immediate nut output, prolonged excess moisture could raise plant protection costs and influence next season’s crop quality.
In Vietnam, no major acute weather shocks have been reported in the last few days. Seasonal forecasts still emphasize an elevated probability of El Niño‑related anomalies through late 2026, which could mean pockets of dryness or irregular rainfall in Southeast Asia later in the year. For now, raw nut availability is more a function of earlier West African crop flows and procurement costs than of new weather events. The Netherlands has no production exposure; weather only affects logistics marginally, and no significant disruptions are currently indicated.
Fundamentals & Margins
- Processors’ squeeze: Earlier reports noted rising raw nut costs and higher processing expenses in Vietnam and India, which have not been fully passed through to kernel buyers. This is consistent with today’s flat to slightly firmer kernel offers and cautious seller behavior.
- Inventory balance: Global kernel inventories in consuming markets are generally healthier than at the start of 2026, yet many EU and North American buyers still need to secure volumes for late‑year programs. This underpins demand for spot and nearby shipments into hubs such as the Netherlands.
- Trade flows: Vietnam continues to dominate supply into both the EU and US, while India leans more on domestic consumption and regional exports. Any further downgrades in Vietnam’s export expectations, particularly to the Middle East, could redirect more kernels into Europe and Asia at slightly more competitive differentials.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas (3–5 days)
- Bias: Sideways to slightly firmer across origins, with Vietnam continuing to offer the most competitive FOB values and the Netherlands reflecting a modest import premium.
- For buyers: Consider covering near‑term needs in Vietnam and, for EU positions, partially in the Netherlands while prices remain in a tight range and before any further cost pass‑through from processors. Focus on locking in WW320/W240 and key industrial grades rather than chasing discounts on off‑spec material.
- For sellers: Maintain offer discipline; current global demand, plus firm raw nut and processing costs, argues against granting wide discounts. However, selectively rewarding larger or longer‑tenor contracts with small price improvements could help secure throughput.
- Risk watch: Monitor monsoon developments in India for any shift from beneficial to damaging rainfall in key cashew belts, and follow Vietnam’s evolving export guidance, especially regarding Middle East and China demand.
3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, EUR)
- India (IN, New Delhi FOB/FCA): Kernel prices are expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days, with a slight upward bias for premium whole grades as processors resist discounts amid firm costs and steady domestic buying.
- Vietnam (VN, Hanoi FOB): Prices for main kernel grades are likely to hold steady; any moves should be marginal as exporters balance softer export targets with solid demand from China and the EU.
- Netherlands (NL, Dordrecht FCA): Import‑hub prices should stay firm, with a mild upward tendency driven by ongoing EU demand and limited scope for cheaper replacement offers from origins in the very short term.