Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Vietnam Exports Slow and EU Demand Stays Cautious

Cashew kernel prices in India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are broadly stable this week, with key WW320 and WW240 grades moving sideways despite weaker Vietnamese export data and soft European demand. Tight but adequate raw nut availability and seasonally hot, mostly dry weather in India and Vietnam are supporting a mildly firm tone rather than a clear rally.

The market is in a consolidation phase. Vietnam’s customs data show January 2026 cashew exports sharply down month‑on‑month, signalling more cautious buying from major destinations such as the US and China, while processors keep kernel offers steady to maintain utilisation. India’s kernel exporters are helped by a mature processing base but face cost pressure and competition from Vietnam. In Europe, cool, unsettled spring weather and steady retail demand translate into cautious restocking, with Dutch FCA prices slightly below origin levels once freight is adjusted. Near‑term, we expect a broadly sideways to mildly firm price bias.

📈 Prices & Spreads

The following indicative levels convert current offers to EUR using an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR. All values are per kg.

Region	Grade	Term	Spot price (EUR/kg)	WoW move
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW240	FOB	≈ 7.15	Stable
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW320	FOB	≈ 6.31	Stable
India (New Delhi)	W320 (conv.)	FOB	≈ 6.39	Stable
India (New Delhi)	W240 (conv.)	FOB	≈ 6.98	Stable
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	WW320	FCA	≈ 4.61	Stable
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	FS (splits)	FCA	≈ 3.41	Stable

• Price structure still rewards origin commitments: India/Vietnam WW320 FOB trades around 35–40% above Dutch FCA kernels, in line with freight, finance and distribution costs.
• Indian organic kernels maintain a significant premium (≈25–30%) over conventional grades, but no fresh widening this week.
• Broking indications from international kernel quotations also suggest a broadly steady tone with only slight firmness in whole grades versus splits.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam remains the key global kernel supplier, but customs data show January 2026 cashew export values down about 25% versus December, with especially sharp declines to the US and China. This reflects slower restocking after strong late‑2025 shipments and some resistance to higher kernel offers.

Earlier customs releases highlighted that Vietnam’s raw cashew imports tend to be volatile, with periods of sharp increases and decreases through 2025 as processors balanced raw nut costs against kernel demand. This pattern suggests processors can adjust utilisation relatively quickly, limiting downside in kernel prices when exports soften.

India continues to rely heavily on imported raw cashews for its large processing cluster around Kollam, which handles the bulk of India’s export‑quality kernels. While no fresh official export data were released in the last three days, market discussions point to steady demand from key destinations and support from a diversified domestic snack market. Cost pressures from wages and limited mechanisation keep Indian offers slightly above Vietnamese levels for the same grades.

Europe / Netherlands acts mainly as a redistributing hub. Recent trade commentary indicates cautious restocking behavior in the EU amid still‑high inventory carrying costs and uncertainty about consumer demand. Combined with stable origin prices, this limits upside for FCA quotations in Dordrecht and keeps the spot market competitive.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Weather – India (IN): In Goa and Kerala, key coastal cashew areas, the next three days are forecast hot to very hot, with highs around 36–37°C and only scattered afternoon showers on 28–29 March. This pattern is seasonally normal for late March and broadly supportive of ongoing harvest and drying, with no immediate yield threat.

Weather – Vietnam (VN): Binh Phuoc and Dak Lak, major cashew‑growing provinces, will also see hot, hazy sunshine with highs near 37–38°C, locally 38–39°C, over the coming three days and no significant rainfall. These conditions favour continuous field operations but increase the need for careful drying and storage to protect kernel quality.

Weather – Netherlands (NL): Dordrecht will remain cool and unsettled, with temperatures around 7–10°C and occasional showers. Weather there has little direct impact on supply but tends to be associated with slow, steady retail nut demand rather than strong seasonal spikes.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading View

• Bias: Sideways to mildly firm over the next week, as hot, dry origin weather and controlled raw nut imports prevent meaningful downside while demand is only moderate.
• Upside risks: Stronger‑than‑expected demand from the US/EU after recent export slowdowns in Vietnam, or any disruption to West African raw nut shipments as their marketing season advances.
• Downside risks: Further weakness in Chinese and US buying interest or aggressive selling from processors holding high kernel stocks.

🔍 Tactical Recommendations

• Roasters / importers (EU, NL): Use current flat FCA levels to cover near‑term WW320 and FS needs. Consider incremental coverage for Q2 where Vietnamese FOB offers are competitive versus historical averages.
• Buyers in India: For conventional W320/W240, stagger purchases rather than front‑loading, as local offers remain slightly above Vietnam with limited immediate catalysts for a sharp rally.
• Origin processors (IN, VN): Maintain disciplined offers; with exports recently weaker from Vietnam, focus on quality differentiation and nearby shipment windows instead of discounting.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi kernels): Prices expected to remain flat in EUR terms over the next three days; hot but normal weather and steady demand argue against quick moves.
• Vietnam (VN, FOB Hanoi kernels): Sideways to slightly firm bias as processors watch export orders after January’s sharp decline in shipments.
• Netherlands (NL, FCA Dordrecht kernels): Stable, with narrow bid‑offer spreads and no major freight or demand shocks expected through the weekend.