Cashew Kernels Hold Steady as Buyers Test Q2 Upside

Cashew kernel prices across India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are broadly stable to slightly softer, with only marginal corrections in Vietnamese WW grades as Q2 buying interest slowly improves. Strong Vietnamese export performance and firm Asian demand are offset by cautious EU buying and macro uncertainty, keeping a mild bull bias but preventing any sharp near‑term spike. The global cashew market enters mid-May with a more balanced tone after Q1 corrections. In Vietnam, kernel FOB offers are stabilising near recent floors, while exporters report gradually improving interest from Asia and selective restocking from Europe. India’s domestic fundamentals remain structurally strong, yet extreme heat and steady demand have not translated into immediate price breakouts. In Northwest Europe, including Dutch hubs around Dordrecht, kernels trade in a narrow range as buyers remain well covered and freight/logistics are normal. Overall, the market looks supported but not tight, favouring patient buyers in the very short term.

Prices & Short-Term Trend

All prices converted to approximate EUR/kg (using 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR for recent Vietnamese indications).

Broadly, kernels in origin (IN, VN) trade at a visible premium to EU hub levels, reflecting freight, finance and risk margins. The small week‑on‑week easing in Vietnam’s WW and broken grades suggests sellers are still more eager than buyers at current levels, even as forward fundamentals look constructive.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam remains the key global kernel supplier, targeting around 800,000 tonnes of kernel exports and USD 5 billion in value by 2026. Industry associations highlight strong early‑year export growth in 2026, especially into Asia and select emerging markets, even as they warn of geopolitical risks and policy shifts in raw-cashew origins.

Recent customs-based analysis shows a sharp rebound in Vietnamese cashew exports in March 2026, with export value more than doubling month‑on‑month, led by strong shipments to the US and China. This reinforces the view that end‑user demand is recovering after a soft Q4–Q1. For Europe, cashew kernel imports from developing countries (mainly Vietnam and India) have been growing around 6–7% per year, with the Netherlands acting as a key re‑export hub to the wider EU.

In India, structural demand growth is underpinned by rising health awareness, increasing use in confectionery and traditional cuisine, and deeper penetration of branded snacks and e‑commerce channels. Government support for processing mechanisation continues to improve throughput and quality, strengthening India’s role as both a consumer and exporter. Overall, the fundamental demand backdrop in both Asia and Europe remains positive, limiting any sustained downside in kernel prices despite short‑term macro headwinds.

Weather Outlook (IN, VN, NL)

In India (New Delhi, representative of North Indian trade hubs), the next three days are forecast to be very hot and hazy, with maximum temperatures around 37–38°C and minimums near 26–28°C, plus poor air quality. While cashew orchards are mostly in coastal and southern regions, such heat in key consumption centres can temporarily temper retail demand for premium snacks but has little immediate impact on supply.

In Vietnam (Hanoi as a northern reference), the short‑term forecast points to cloudy, relatively mild conditions with scattered showers and localized thunderstorms, highs around 27–30°C. These are broadly seasonal and not disruptive for processing, logistics or container movements from major ports in the north and south. In the Netherlands (Dordrecht), weather is cool with 12–20°C highs and increasing cloud cover over the next three days, which is neutral for port operations and warehouse handling of imported kernels.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Stabilising VN prices: Early-May Vietnamese FOB prices indicate WW240 around USD 7.65/kg and WW320 around USD 7.20/kg, described as "stable" to "slightly firmer" after Q1 corrections, suggesting that the downtrend has largely run its course.
• Resilient EU demand: EU cashew imports from developing countries have been expanding, with the Netherlands positioned as a key redistribution hub. Despite stable overall nut prices in NW Europe, cashews continue to benefit from the shift toward nuts in consumers’ diets.
• Asia-led demand growth: Vietnam’s broader agro‑export data show notable gains in several food categories, with Thailand’s imports of Vietnamese cashew nuts up strongly year‑on‑year, underlining robust regional demand even as some Western markets remain cautious.
• Raw nut supply & geopolitics: Vietnam’s industry warns that geopolitical instability in certain Middle Eastern markets and policy shifts in African raw-cashew origins could create volatility in kernel exports and input costs later in 2026, although no immediate disruption is evident yet.
• India’s domestic engine: The Indian market is supported by structural growth in whole kernels for snacks and festivals, with government schemes aimed at modernising processing and enhancing quality. This underpins a floor under Indian FOB values even in quieter export windows.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term bias (next 1–2 weeks): Mildly bullish to sideways. With Vietnamese export momentum improving and EU demand steady but not overheated, near‑term downside appears limited, yet a sharp rally would likely require a new shock (weather, logistics or policy).
• Importers in EU (NL hub buyers): Consider adding modest coverage on WW320 and broken grades at current FCA Dordrecht levels, which still trade at a discount to origin-adjusted replacement costs. Focus on staggered purchases rather than large one‑off bookings to keep flexibility.
• Asian buyers (including India & regional snack/confectionery users): Use current stability in Vietnamese FOB offers to secure Q3 needs, especially for premium whole grades, before any broader Q2–Q3 price firming hinted at by Vietnamese exporters.
• Origin processors (IN, VN): Avoid aggressive forward sales at deep discounts; with structural demand growth and manageable weather/logistics risk in the short run, it is reasonable to hold a slightly firmer offer stance on high‑quality kernels.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction in EUR)

• India – New Delhi (FOB/FCA): W320 and W240 kernels expected to remain broadly steady over the next three days in EUR terms, with any INR‑driven volatility minor versus overall trade levels.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (FOB): WW240/WW320 likely to trade sideways to slightly firmer in EUR, as exporters test small Q2 price increases but face still‑selective buying.
• Netherlands – Dordrecht (FCA): WW320 and broken grades expected to stay flat, mirroring a balanced EU nut market and stable logistics, with no significant short‑term catalysts identified.