Cashew kernels hold steady as tight African RCN caps downside

Cashew kernel prices in India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are broadly steady in late April, with only marginal grade‑wise adjustments. Tight and still‑expensive African raw cashew nut (RCN) supply is capping downside, while soft to cautious demand and logistics headwinds keep a lid on rallies.

Exporters are navigating a finely balanced market. Vietnam’s main harvest is progressing under notably dry, quality‑friendly weather, supporting kernel output and mitigating some import tightness from West Africa. India remains constrained by higher raw material and cost inflation, limiting its export competitiveness even as domestic snack demand stays resilient. EU hub stocks in the Netherlands appear comfortable, with kernel offers largely unchanged. Against this backdrop, near‑term price action across key grades looks sideways with a mild upward bias if RCN availability tightens further.

📈 Prices & recent moves

Region	Location/Term	Grade	Latest price (EUR/kg)	WoW trend
Vietnam	Hanoi, FOB	WW240	≈7.70	Flat
Vietnam	Hanoi, FOB	WW320	≈6.80	Flat
India	New Delhi, FCA	W240	≈6.90	Slightly firmer vs mid‑month
India	New Delhi, FCA	W320	≈6.80	Slightly firmer vs mid‑month
Netherlands	Dordrecht, FCA	WW320	≈4.90	Flat
Netherlands	Dordrecht, FCA	FS/SWP blends	≈3.00–3.60	Flat

Note: All prices converted to EUR/kg for comparability using prevailing late‑April FX levels.

🌍 Supply, demand & trade flows

Raw nut supply: Indicative CNF offers for West African RCN (Guinea, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso) around USD 1,410–1,690/MT for April–May shipments confirm that raw nuts remain relatively expensive, helping to floor kernel values. Combined with already contracted volumes, this is constraining aggressive discounting by processors in Vietnam and India.

Processing hubs: Vietnam continues to dominate global kernel exports, handling more than half of world shipments, while India remains a key processor with a much larger share oriented to domestic consumption than exports. In India, recent official dashboards point to weaker export competitiveness because of higher raw material, logistics and packaging costs, with exports representing only about 5–6% of domestic supply.

Demand tone: Demand from traditional snack and confectionery users in Asia and the Middle East is described as steady but price‑sensitive, while logistics disruptions via the Middle East and firm freight keep some buyers cautious on forward coverage. EU demand via the Netherlands appears adequately covered in the short term, reflected in largely unchanged FCA kernel offers in Dordrecht.

☀️ Weather & crop conditions (IN, VN focus)

Vietnam (main origin): High‑frequency weather monitoring for key cashew provinces (Bình Phước, Đồng Nai, Bình Thuận, Đắk Lắk, Gia Lai) indicates drier‑than‑average conditions with light rainfall and moderate temperatures, rated as low risk for the 2026 harvest. This is ideal for harvesting and drying, supporting kernel quality and limiting post‑harvest losses.

India (supporting origin): Cashew belts in India typically harvest during the dry months before the southwest monsoon. Agronomic guidance indicates that the current period is still within the main marketing window for processed kernels, and there are no major weather‑related alarms yet, though broader concerns about a less reliable 2026 monsoon are emerging in the Indian oilseed and tree‑nut complex. For now, this is a watch point rather than a direct price driver for kernels.

📊 Fundamentals & short‑term outlook

• Balance of forces: Tight and pricey African RCN plus favorable but not bumper supply from Vietnam and India are offset by softer regional demand and freight issues through the Middle East, resulting in a broadly sideways kernel market in late April.
• India vs Vietnam pricing: Recent Indian export dashboards suggest India’s W320 export values remain above Vietnam’s on a USD/MT basis, and the official outlook for Q2 2026 is “sideways” with a slightly lower year‑on‑year price level. Vietnam’s prices are also signalled sideways for the FMA (Feb–Apr) window, reinforcing the current range‑bound pattern.
• EU hub (NL): The Netherlands remains a key entry point for Indian and Vietnamese kernels into Europe. Latest trade statistics confirm a solid base of Indian nut exports (including cashews) into NL in 2024, suggesting that current FCA prices around EUR 4.9/kg for conventional WW320 reflect a competitive, well‑supplied hub rather than shortage.

📆 3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB: WW320 and WW240 offers are expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days, with typical ranges near EUR 6.8–7.7/kg as processors monitor RCN arrivals and freight. Sideways bias.
• India – New Delhi FCA: Kernel prices for W240/W320 are likely to track sideways to fractionally firmer, supported by firm raw nut and processing costs and resilient local demand, but capped by weaker export competitiveness.
• Netherlands – Dordrecht FCA: EU hub prices for WW320 and broken grades should stay stable as nearby demand is covered and replacement offers from Vietnam and India show no sharp moves. Sideways profile with a slight upward risk if freight or RCN tighten further.

🧭 Trading outlook & recommendations

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Use current sideways conditions to secure near‑term coverage in Vietnam and India, especially for WW320/WW240, as downside appears limited by RCN costs and logistics risks. Structure purchases in tranches rather than all‑in to retain flexibility if demand softens.
• Origin processors: Maintain disciplined offers; avoid undercutting on kernels given still‑firm raw nut replacement costs. Focus on quality and traceability, which are gaining importance with EU and premium buyers and can justify a modest premium over bulk origins.
• EU importers (NL hub): With hub stocks adequate, prioritize logistics reliability and supplier diversification between Vietnam and India. Consider modest forward coverage for Q2–Q3 if further disruptions in Middle East routes or African RCN supply emerge.