Cashew Kernels: Slight Softening in India & EU While Vietnam Holds Firm

Cashew kernel prices are broadly stable with a mild softening bias in India and the Netherlands, while Vietnamese FOB offers remain firm, underpinned by tight raw nut availability. With West African supply constraints and steady demand from Europe and Asia, the downside in kernels looks limited in the very short term. Across key hubs in India (New Delhi), Vietnam (Hanoi) and the Netherlands (Dordrecht), wholesale kernel prices in mid‑May show only marginal week‑on‑week adjustments, mostly a few euro‑cents softer. This easing is linked more to cautious spot buying and high interest rates than to any real improvement in raw cashew nut (RCN) supply. Global fundamentals remain tight: West African RCN flows are constrained, while Vietnam’s imports and exports are running at elevated levels, and Indian domestic consumption continues to absorb a large share of supply. In this context, the next few days look broadly sideways, with limited room for further price declines.

Prices & Spreads (All Converted to EUR/kg)

Based on mid‑May offers and recent FOB/FCA benchmarks, indicative kernel prices are:

Recent market commentary notes that Vietnamese FOB WW320 is broadly hovering around EUR 6.3–6.5/kg and WW240 near EUR 7.1–7.3/kg, with pieces grades at EUR 3.9–5.0/kg depending on origin, confirming the firm but not rising tone in Vietnam. India and EU (Netherlands) are described as “slightly softer” versus April, reflecting cautious demand and some re‑routing of Vietnamese kernels into Europe, which is putting gentle pressure on EU spot offers.

Supply, Trade Flows & Demand

On the supply side, global cashew fundamentals remain tight. West Africa’s 2026 raw cashew crop is tracking below last year, which is limiting RCN availability even as some destination demand has cooled. Heavy rains and regulatory changes in parts of West Africa are slowing raw nut flows, particularly from Ghana and Burkina Faso, adding friction in the supply chain just as India and Europe look increasingly to Africa for RCN.

Vietnam’s processing sector remains the central pillar of global kernel supply. A recent update highlights a record level of raw cashew imports in April and exports of around 61,100 tonnes of kernels worth USD 433 million, with average export prices up nearly 2% year‑on‑year. At the strategic level, Vietnam’s industry is targeting about 800,000 tonnes of kernel exports worth roughly USD 5 billion in 2026, underlining its role as the price‑setting origin.

In India, official dashboards show that domestic demand absorbs the bulk of supply, with exports representing only a small fraction of the total market. This structural feature, combined with higher raw material costs, keeps Indian FOB kernel offers at a premium to Vietnam. Recent Indian trade data also show strong overall export growth across commodities in April 2026, suggesting healthy macro demand conditions but not directly alleviating cashew‑specific tightness.

European demand, with the Netherlands as a key entry point, is described as steady but price‑sensitive. Buyers are taking advantage of slightly lower nearby offers to cover near‑term needs, yet remain reluctant to build large stocks given macro uncertainty and high financing costs. This behaviour helps explain the marginal softening in FCA Dordrecht prices even as upstream fundamentals stay firm.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (IN, VN, NL)

Fundamentally, there is an ongoing misalignment between relatively high raw nut prices and processor margins, particularly in Vietnam and India, which limits the scope for aggressive kernel price cuts. Analysts emphasise that while some destination demand has softened—especially in conflict‑affected Middle Eastern markets—overall kernel exports from Vietnam rose about 3% recently, supported by China, West Asia and Europe.

Weather – India (IN): The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports active pre‑monsoon conditions with thunderstorms and heavy rain in several eastern and central states, while heatwave conditions are expected to persist from 17–19 May in north‑western and eastern regions. Key commercial cashew belts along the west coast (Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala) are currently in the late harvest/early post‑harvest phase, so short‑term weather disruptions to the current crop are limited; the main risk is to flowering and nut set for the next season if heat stress persists longer than forecast.

Weather – Vietnam (VN): No major new weather shock has been reported in the last three days for Vietnam’s cashew‑growing regions. Broader Southeast Asia commentary points to a seasonal transition towards wetter conditions, but without specific adverse alerts for cashew orchards. In the absence of extreme heat or flooding news, current weather is assumed neutral for near‑term supply, with the main constraints coming instead from West African RCN availability and logistics.

Weather – Netherlands (NL): As a non‑producing hub focused on storage, packing and redistribution, Dutch cashew pricing is more sensitive to freight costs, financing rates and EU consumer demand than to local weather. No recent reports suggest weather‑related disruptions to Rotterdam/Dordrecht port operations, so FCA price moves largely mirror upstream kernel offers from Vietnam and India and evolving European retail demand.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3‑Day View)

Given the combination of tight global RCN supply, firm Vietnamese export activity and only modest demand softness in India and Europe, the very near‑term outlook (next three days) is for broadly sideways prices with a slight downward bias in demand‑sensitive markets.

• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): WW320 and WW240 are expected to hold in the current ranges (≈ EUR 6.3–6.5/kg and EUR 7.1–7.3/kg respectively), with only token discounting possible on pieces for volume deals. Probability of meaningful downside over three days is low given raw nut constraints.
• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): W240/W320 grades may edge another EUR 0.05–0.10/kg lower in slow segments as exporters compete with Vietnamese offers, but stronger domestic demand should prevent any sharp correction. Sideways‑to‑slightly‑softer remains the base case.
• Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA): WW320 likely trades in a narrow band around current levels (≈ EUR 4.6–4.9/kg). With EU buyers already covered for nearby needs and freight/logistics stable, modest further softening in pieces (FS, LWP, SWP) is possible but limited to a few euro‑cents.

Trading Outlook & Strategy Pointers

• Importers in Europe (NL hub): Use the current slight softness in FCA Dordrecht to extend coverage modestly for Q3 2026, especially in WW320 and popular pieces, but avoid over‑stocking while macro demand remains uncertain.
• Indian buyers/processors: Given strong domestic demand and constrained West African RCN flows, locking in part of your kernel and RCN needs at current levels appears prudent; any short‑term dip is likely to be shallow.
• Vietnamese exporters: With FOB benchmarks stable and strong positioning in global trade, prioritise margin protection over volume: resist deep discounts on whole grades, while remaining flexible on pieces to maintain factory utilisation.
• Speculative/financial participants: The risk‑reward for outright short positions looks poor given tight fundamentals; strategies should focus on relative value (Vietnam vs India premia, whole vs broken spreads) rather than directional bets over the next few days.

Over the immediate 3‑day horizon, cashew kernel prices in India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are therefore expected to trade in tight ranges, with Vietnam providing a firm floor, India and the EU showing marginal softness, and any significant move more likely driven by a surprise in West African RCN flows or a sudden shift in demand rather than local weather.