Cashew Kernels: Stable FOB Asia, Softer Europe as Demand Rebalances

Cashew kernel prices are broadly steady into 20 March 2026, with FOB India and Vietnam flat week-on-week while European FCA levels in the Netherlands ease slightly. Stable weather in key growing regions and only moderate demand growth keep the market balanced, with a mild downward bias in Europe and firm undertones in Asia.

Global cashew trade is entering 2026 with renewed momentum, supported by firm import demand in the EU and structurally growing consumption in the US and China. Vietnamese export values have softened month-on-month in January 2026 after a strong 2025, but broader price trends remain upward compared with 2023–24 averages. In India, recent mixed weather in key cashew states poses only a moderate risk to the 2025/26 crop at this stage. European buyers are well supplied via the Netherlands logistics hub, and slight kernel price declines there indicate some buyer resistance at recent highs.

📈 Prices & Spreads (All values in EUR/kg)

Region	Specification	Term	Latest level	WoW move
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW320 FOB	FOB	≈ 6.30	Flat
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW240 FOB	FOB	≈ 7.15	Flat
India (New Delhi)	W320 FOB	FOB	≈ 6.40	Flat
India (New Delhi)	W240 FOB	FOB conventional	≈ 6.90	Flat
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	WW320 FCA	FCA	≈ 4.60	≈ −1% WoW
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	Broken grades FCA	FCA	≈ 3.20–3.40	≈ −1–2% WoW

Note: Indicative conversions from USD to EUR based on ~1.10 USD/EUR. Rounded to two decimals.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam, which handles around 60% of global cashew kernel trade, enters 2026 with stronger underlying demand but a softer start to the year in export values. Preliminary customs data show Vietnamese cashew export turnover in January 2026 fell by about 25% month-on-month, led by a sharp pullback in shipments to China, although this follows an exceptionally strong finish to 2025.

EU demand remains structurally firm, with 2025 imports reaching record levels and the Netherlands acting as the main entry hub for kernels into Western Europe. The US and China continue as the top end markets, supported in 2026 by the removal of certain US food import tariffs and ongoing recovery in Chinese consumption. However, rising competition from Côte d’Ivoire’s expanding processing industry is capping upside for Vietnamese and Indian offers in some destinations.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

In Vietnam, near-term weather around Hanoi and northern growing areas is seasonally warm with periods of clouds and light rain over the next three days, conditions that are broadly neutral for flowering and early nut development. Import volumes of raw nuts into Vietnam surged through much of 2025, indicating ample raw material availability for processors, although December 2025 and early 2026 data show some normalisation after previous spikes.

For India, recent assessments highlight a moderate risk to the 2025/26 cashew outlook due to unseasonal rains in Kerala and drier patches in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but no major crop loss signal so far. Short-term weather in New Delhi is partly cloudy to sunny and seasonally warming, with no immediate stress to trade logistics. In the Netherlands, cool but stable spring conditions in Rotterdam support normal port operations and warehouse activity, with no weather-related disruption to European cashew distribution.

📌 Market Drivers & Short-Term Outlook

• Macro demand: Global cashew demand is expected to grow by roughly 4–5% annually through 2027, driven by snacking and plant-based trends in the EU and North America.
• Price structure: Organic kernels maintain a 40–60% premium in EU and US markets, but organic availability remains limited, supporting firm differentials for EU-warehoused organic grades.
• Costs & freight: Higher processing costs in Vietnam and slightly firmer Asia–EU/US freight in late 2025 keep a floor under FOB offers into early 2026, even as spot demand cools.
• Competition: Increasing volumes of processed kernels from West Africa, particularly Côte d’Ivoire, continue to weigh on long-term price upside for Asian origin cashews in the US and EU.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Regional View

• Importers (EU/US): Use current softness in Netherlands FCA levels to cover near-term WW320 and broken demand on dips, but stagger purchases for Q3/Q4 given generally firm global fundamentals.
• Asian processors: With FOB India/Vietnam flat and raw nut supply comfortable, resist deep discounts; focus on premiums for organic and higher grades where EU and niche Middle East demand remains resilient.
• Roasters/packers: Lock in a share of requirements now, especially for organic and WW240/WW320, while leaving some volume open in case of further mild corrections from Europe’s side.

3‑day directional outlook (all in EUR, directional only):

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi): W320/W240 expected steady in the very short term, with balanced local supply and exports.
• Vietnam (VN, FOB Hanoi): WW320/WW240 and main broken grades likely to remain stable to slightly firm as processors watch export demand after January’s pullback.
• Netherlands (NL, FCA Dordrecht): EU warehouse prices for WW320 and lower grades slightly soft bias as buyers remain price-sensitive and spot coverage is comfortable.