Cashew Kernels Stay Firm as India Trades at a Premium to Global Benchmarks

India’s cashew kernel market remains firmly supported, with domestic prices across key grades holding at elevated levels and continuing to trade at a premium to international benchmarks. Import disruptions from major African origins and a weak rupee against the dollar are reinforcing a high cost floor for processors and exporters. Indian wholesale and processor offers show a steady, high-priced environment, while Vietnamese and European quotations remain softer but stable. With West Africa’s ongoing harvest showing mixed quality and volume, and the dollar hovering near multi-year highs versus the rupee, any near-term price relief for buyers looks limited.

Prices & Differentials

Delhi’s wholesale dry fruit market kept a firm tone in the week ending 6 May 2026. Premium W180 kernels were quoted around the equivalent of EUR 940–1,385 per kg, with W210 at roughly EUR 970–1,125 per kg and W240 at about EUR 880–1,000 per kg (USD values converted at ~EUR 1 = USD 1.08). W320, the globally most traded grade, traded near EUR 810–900 per kg, while W400 and broken grades (Splits, Pieces, JK) filled in a still-elevated lower tier.

Export- and Europe-oriented prices are far lower per kg because they refer to bulk, containerized trade rather than Delhi’s premium retail/wholesale quotes. Recent offers for conventional W320 are around EUR 6.2–6.4/kg FOB New Delhi and roughly EUR 6.2–6.3/kg FOB Hanoi, with W240 near EUR 6.6–6.8/kg FOB India and EUR 7.0–7.2/kg FOB Vietnam, indicating India is running at a premium to other origins even in bulk trade. Dutch FCA offers for W320 around Dordrecht are significantly lower, in the region of EUR 4.5–4.6/kg for conventional product, reflecting intense competition among European importers and processors.

Supply & Demand Drivers

India remains the largest global processor and a major consumer, importing raw cashew nuts primarily from Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania and Vietnam. The current supply cycle is at a sensitive point: the West African harvest is underway, but early reports indicate mixed quality and volumes, with estimates pointing to a notable shortfall versus last year’s record levels in some origins. Weather-related stress during flowering in parts of West Africa has added uncertainty around sizing and outturn.

Any shortfall in raw cashew nut availability or kernel recovery from these origins typically feeds through to processed kernel prices within four to six weeks, given standard processing lead times in India and Vietnam. At the same time, structural growth in processing capacity in West Africa is gradually reducing the share of exportable raw nut flows, tightening competition for independent Indian processors.

Fundamentals & Currency Impact

The dollar’s sustained strength versus the rupee is a central pillar of the current price structure. In early May 2026, USD/INR has been trading around 94–95, meaning India’s import costs for raw cashew nuts are materially higher in local currency terms than in recent seasons. As India imports essentially all of its raw cashew requirements, this FX backdrop directly elevates processors’ floor prices and supports firm kernel offers to export and domestic buyers alike.

For European confectionery and snack manufacturers sourcing Indian-processed W240 and W320, this translates into limited downside in near-term replacement costs. Even if spot demand remains cautious in some end markets, processors show little incentive to discount aggressively while raw nut prices and currency levels keep margins tight. Price corrections of any magnitude will likely require either a more pronounced rupee recovery or a clear improvement in West African raw nut supply – neither of which appears likely in the coming three to four weeks based on current FX trends and crop indications.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Recent regional updates indicate that the 2026 West African cashew season is progressing under uneven weather conditions. Reports from producer associations highlight episodes of harsh weather during flowering in parts of the Ivory Coast–Guinea-Bissau belt, which may negatively affect nut size and yields compared with prior record crops. This is consistent with early market assessments of a 200,000–250,000 ton shortfall versus the 2025 harvest across key West African origins.

In East Africa, Tanzania remains an important but secondary origin for India’s raw nut imports. The government’s recently announced medium-term agricultural investment push, including in oilseeds and processing infrastructure, could gradually alter regional competition for raw cashew nuts, but will not materially ease short-term tightness in the 2026 raw nut balance.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Near-term bias: sideways-to-firm. With Indian wholesale prices elevated, import flows constrained and currency support intact, the cashew market is likely to trade sideways with an upward bias over the next 3–4 weeks.
• For industrial buyers (EU/UK): Consider covering a meaningful share of Q3 needs now, particularly in W320 and W240, to hedge against further West African supply disappointments and potential additional rupee weakness.
• For roasters and snack packers in India: Maintain lean but secure inventories; avoid overextending coverage beyond one to two months until clearer signals emerge from late West African arrivals and retail demand.
• For origin exporters (Africa, Vietnam): The Indian premium offers an opportunity to prioritize higher-grade shipments into India, but buyers’ resistance at these levels suggests being flexible on specifications and shipment windows to keep volumes moving.

Short-Term Price Indications (3-Day View)

• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): W320 and W240 expected to remain broadly stable in the EUR 6.7–7.4/kg range, with only minor grade-specific adjustments as import flows and FX are closely watched.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): W320 likely to trade around EUR 6.6–6.9/kg, with limited downside given the same raw nut and currency backdrop affecting regional processors.
• Northwest Europe (Netherlands, FCA): W320 and broken grades expected to stay in a tight range (around EUR 4.8–5.0/kg for W320), reflecting stable but cautious demand and adequate spot availability.